It fell below 3,000 points again! Why is Da Mo, who sings short accurately, so godly?

  Value Line | produce 

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Bian Jiang, Jing Ke| author 

 Jing Ke| edit

Value line guide

Da Mo is still that Da Mo, A shares are still that A shares!

Yesterday, Da Mo began to short A shares again, suggesting that Chinese investors take profits now, and today the Shanghai Stock Exchange dived directly above 3,000 points, and many popular stocks have fallen sharply. Why is Da Mo still so godly? Why didn't a certain team make a move?

For so many years, it has been considered to have a high margin of safety, and the big A that can stand up and forth has risen and fallen at 3,000 points for more than ten years, with ups and downs, ups and downs, and countless harvests, while Bitcoin, which is considered to be a huge risk and a Ponzi scheme, has risen like a rainbow and hit new highs repeatedly......

Last night, the regulator once again emphasized that the capital market should stand firmly on the people's position and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors.

I hope you don't disappoint you again this time!

3000, lost again

The bleakness of A-shares today reminds many investors of the difficult time at the end of January and the beginning of February.

Judging from the data after the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.26%, and finally closed at 299 points, while the ChiNext Index fell even more, reaching 2.81%, and the ChiNext Index is now approaching the 60-day line.

If the decline of the index does not clearly express the bad state of the market, it is measured by the number of rises and losses of individual stocks.

Today, the number of stocks rising in the two cities is 476, while the number of stocks falling has reached nearly 4,700, and the number of stocks falling by more than 10% in the two cities has reached more than 80. When it was around 2,800 points before, the number of individual stocks rising every day was about 500.

On the disk, the varieties that have fallen a lot in the past 3-4 trading days are basically the fastest rebounding and conceptual rubbing at the end of February and early March

The most ruthless breed.

After the market, Hu Xijin published the latest stock trading diary, saying that it fell below 3,000 points today. The individual fell 7,195 yuan today, and the total loss broke 50,000 yuan again, reaching 50,550 yuan. At the best of this round a while ago, my loss reached about 25,000 yuan. Lao Hu said that I hope to fall below 3,000 points again, as "warm and cold" as the weather this spring.

From January to March 2024, in just two months, we felt the complete interpretation of a round of emotions in A-shares: panic and despair after the continuous accelerated decline, the suddenness of the inflection point, the violence and urgency of the counter-pumping, the continuous fermentation of the concept to the climax, the weakness after the climax, and the rapid ebb of the tide......

Every link is so clear!

Many investors lamented:

When you get close to paying off, the rally comes to an abrupt halt;

When you take a profit and go out, a dark horse is born;

When you are complacent, the air raids come as scheduled;

When you're penniless, good stocks are everywhere; When you're full of dips, the decline has just begun.

At the critical moment, why did Da Mo say it right again?

Yesterday, Da Mo began to short A-shares again, suggesting that Chinese investors take profits now, which was directly confirmed today.

The last time was on August 3, 2023, Da Mo advised investors to take profits, and then A shares fell directly from 3200 to 2600.

Looking at it now, these two reminders of the timing of profit-taking are really accurate. At the critical moment, why did Da Mo say it right?

1. From a macro perspective:

In the context of the decline in the potential growth rate of the economy, the lack of demand and the weakening of national expectations, real estate and urban investment bonds have been extinguished, and the local government investment engine and commercial bank money printing machine have also been extinguished.

In 2024, the "little spring" did not come, but there was a "cold spring". In the first two months, the national real estate development investment fell by 9.0% year-on-year, the sales of newly built commercial housing fell by 29.3%, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises fell by 24.1% year-on-year. Among them, deposits and advance receipts decreased by 34.8%, and personal mortgage loans decreased by 36.6%. In addition, at the end of February, real estate inventory exceeded the peak of 2016 and reached an all-time high.

Private investment in fixed assets remained low, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4% in the first two months, and private investment excluding real estate increased by 7.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth rate of overall fixed asset investment. Obviously, the current macro atmosphere does not support the vigorous and smooth rise of the index, and it will inevitably take back if it rises more, especially many varieties that have risen a lot in the short term.

2. From the micro level:

This round of market interpretation after the Spring Festival has been deduced to the present, the overall pricing of the market has been sufficient, the high level is not moving, and many other sectors such as core assets and new energy at the low level have some flaws in logic.

A-shares are a strong beta market after all. No matter how good artificial intelligence is, no matter how good the stars are, it can't keep rising wildly, and the increase in related companies in the past month or so is very considerable, and many of them have doubled, so we need to adjust it slowly at the moment. Moreover, there are many A-share related artificial stocks that rub the concept, and there are performance supports, but there are still few that can be cashed out.

From the point of view of time, it is about to be the intensive disclosure period of the first quarter quarterly report. The performance of many companies will inevitably be falsified, and many funds will of course be cashed out in advance.

Previously, the logic of Guojin Securities' prompt timely take profit was almost the above. (1. The risk of "active destocking" of real estate; 2. The risk of increasing deflationary pressure on the domestic economy; 3. The risk of slowdown in the U.S. economy. According to the latest set of data, on the one hand, the signs of recession in the United States have increased again, on the other hand, the domestic deflationary pressure has increased more than expected, and in addition, real estate risks may accelerate in the second quarter. ）

Why didn't a certain team make a tough move today?

Regarding the accelerated decline at the end of today, analysts also hinted at two fuses:

First, in the external market, the Bank of Japan led to the strengthening of the US dollar, the weakening of the yen, and the weakening of the RMB, resulting in the outflow of foreign capital.

Second, today is the settlement date of ETF options. This is probably the main reason for the tail dive. The settlement date of ETF options is the fourth Wednesday of each month, which will be rolled over if it falls on a statutory holiday. And today happens to be Wednesday. Generally speaking, the risk on the settlement date of an option is not small. For example, on February 28, the options were settled, and the market fell sharply.

At the same time, many investors today should be thinking about such a question: around 3000 points, why did the disk protection funds not act?

Some market participants believe that the current bailout is not a mechanical accumulation of funds to affect the market, but to observe the problem of liquidity.

This wave of CSI 2000 index as the representative of the broad base and artificial intelligence accumulated profit plate is large, the reason why the previous bailout funds came to the rescue, because of the lack of liquidity in the entire market at that time, now the problem is not the same, there is no problem with liquidity at present, and there is a profit-taking, but at this time, if the bailout funds continue to input liquidity to the small and medium-sized market as in the early stage, then a team itself will become a "pick-up man".

To put it simply, the current decline is still a benign or normal action, and it has not yet developed to a malignant or out-of-control time.

So the strategy for the future is also relatively clear: market differentiation

intensify, will pay more attention to the realization of performance. Keep an eye on the Q1 earnings report. In the direction of artificial intelligence, some pure concept varieties should be out of the market decisively, and for some of them with fundamental support, there are still interesting stocks in the future after the floating chips are cleaned out and the stock price pulls back in place, they can still look for opportunities to intervene again.

Epilogue:

Sigh!

For so many years, Bitcoin, which is considered to be a huge risk and Ponzi scheme, has risen like a rainbow and hit new highs, while the big A, which is considered to have a high margin of safety and can stand up and down, has risen and fallen at 3,000 points for more than ten years, with ups and downs, and countless harvests......

In the latest news, Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu said that he will ensure the sustainable growth of cryptocurrencies and will continue to strengthen ties with the mainland, and Hong Kong is determined to maintain its status as an international financial center.

Recently, many financial bloggers have initiated discussions about which asset has the best appreciation potential in the next five years. Here are some of the votes of netizens:

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and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: 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#1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{-- weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 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157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

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