又跌破3000点！精准唱空的大摩为啥这么神？

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大摩还是那个大摩，A股还是那个A股！

昨天，大摩又开始唱空A股，建议中国投资者现在获利了结，今天上证直接跳水破了3000点，不少热门股票纷纷大跌。大摩为啥还是这么神？某队又为啥不出手？

唏嘘一声！这么多年被认为安全边际很高，能够挺起脊梁的大A十多年3000点上下浮沉，风雨飘摇，收割无数；而被认为风险巨大、庞氏骗局的比特币却涨势如虹，屡创新高……

在昨晚，监管层再次强调了资本市场要站稳人民立场，切实保护投资者特别是中小投资者合法权益。

期待这次别再让大家失望了！

3000，再次失守

A股今天的惨淡程度，让不少投资者又想起了一月底二月初的那个难熬时光。

从收盘后的数据看，沪指跌幅达到了1.26%，最终收盘在299点；创业板指数的跌幅则更大，达到了2.81%，目前创业板指数已经逼近60日线了。

如果说指数的跌幅还不能清晰表达市场的恶劣状态，那就从个股的涨跌家数上来衡量。

今天两市上涨的个股数量为476只，而下跌的个股家数达到了接近4700家，两市跌幅超过10%的个股达到了80多只，从这种现象看，个股的全面向下数量超出了想象。之前 2800点左右的时候，当时候每天个股的上涨家数也就500只左右。

盘面上，这3-4个交易日跌的多的品种基本上也是二月底三月初反弹最快的、概念蹭的

最狠的品种。

盘后，胡锡进发表最新炒股日记称，今天又跌破了3000点。个人今天跌了7195元，总亏损重新破了5万，达到50550元。这一轮前阵子最好的时候，我的亏损额曾达到2.5万元左右。老胡说，我希望再次掉到3000点以下是和今年春天的天气一样“乍暖还寒”。

2024年的1月到3月，短短两个月，我们感受到了A股一轮情绪完整的演绎：连续加速下跌后的恐慌与绝望，拐点的突如其来，反抽的暴力与急促，概念不断地发酵至高潮，高潮后的乏力，退潮的迅猛……

每一个环节都是那么清晰！

不少投资者感叹道：

当你接近回本时，反弹戛然而止；

当你获利出局时，黑马横空出世；

当你自鸣得意时，空袭如期而至；

当你身无分文时，好股遍地都是; 当你满仓抄底时，下跌才刚开始。

关键时刻，大摩为啥又说对了？

昨天，大摩又开始唱空A股，建议中国投资者现在获利了结，今天直接被印证了。

上一次是在2023年8月3号，大摩建议投资者获利了结，然后A股从3200直接跌到2600。

现在看，这两次提醒获利了结的时间点，真是精准。关键时刻，大摩为啥都说对了？

1、从宏观层面来看：

在经济潜在增速下降、需求不足和国民预期转弱的大背景下，房地产和城投债熄火，地方政府投资发动机和商业银行印钞机也熄火，尽管中央银行迅速扩表，中央政府加杠杆投资，但货币传导效率仍然低下，通货膨胀自然熄火，经济复苏压力大。

2024年“小阳春”没有来，反而出现“倒春寒”。前两个月，全国房地产开发投资同比下降9.0%，新建商品房销售额下降29.3%，房地产开发企业到位资金同比下降24.1%。其中，定金及预收款下降34.8%，个人按揭贷款下降36.6%。另外，2月末，房地产库存超过2016年的峰值，达到历史最高位。

民间固定资产投资依然较低，前两个月同比增长0.4%，扣除房地产的民间投资同比增长7.6%，低于总体固定资产投资增速。显然当前的的宏观氛围并不支持指数轰轰烈烈、行云流水的上涨，涨多了必然回吐，特别是不少蹭概念短期涨非常多的品种。

2、从微观层面来看：

春节后的这轮行情演绎到现在，市场整体的定价已经偏充分，高位的加不动，低位的很多其他板块如核心资产、新能源等，逻辑上都有一些瑕疵。

A股终归是一个强beta的市场。人工智能再好，再星辰大海，也不能一直疯涨，相关公司这一个多月的涨幅是非常可观的，不少都达到了翻倍左右，所以当下需要先缓缓调整一下啊。况且A股相关人工股票蹭概念的很多，有业绩支撑，能业绩兑现的还是少。

时间节点上来看，马上就是一季度季报的密集披露期。很多公司的业绩必然会被证伪，不少资金当然会提前兑现。

此前，国金证券提示及时止盈的逻辑也差不多就是以上这些。（1、房地产“主动去库”风险；2、国内经济通缩压力加大风险；3、美国经济放缓风险。根据最新一组数据显示：一方面，美国经济衰退迹象再次增加；另一方面，国内通缩压力超预期加大；此外，房地产风险或将可能在二季度加快暴露。）

某队今天为啥不强硬出手？

就今天尾盘的加速下跌，分析人士还提示了两方面的导火索：

一是外围市场，日本央行导致美元走强，日元走弱，人民币亦跟随走低，致使外资流出。

二是今天是ETF期权结算日。这可能是尾盘跳水的主要原因。ETF期权的结算日是每个月的第四个星期三，如果该日遇到法定节假日，则会顺延。而今天恰好是周三。一般来说，期权结算日风险都不小。比如2月28日也是期权结算，市场就曾出现过大跌。

同时，今天不少投资者应该都在思考这么一个问题：3000点附近，护盘资金为何没有行动？

有市场人士认为，当下的救市不是机械式用资金堆积来影响市场向上，而是在观察流动性的问题。

这波以中证2000指数为代表的宽基以及人工智能累计的获利盘偏大，之前救市资金之所以出手援助，是因为当时整个市场的流动性缺乏，现在的问题不大一样了，流动性目前没什么问题，而存在的是获利盘的回吐，但是这个时候如果救市资金再像前期那样，继续给中小盘输入流动性，那某队自己就要成为“接盘侠”了。

简单来说，目前的下跌，还是一个良性或者正常的动作，还没有发展到恶性或者失控的时候。

所以未来的策略也比较清晰：市场分化

加剧，会更注重业绩的兑现。紧密关注一季度的财报。人工智能方向上，一些纯概念品种该出局果断出局；而对于其中一些有基本面支持、未来依然有看点的股票在浮筹清洗出去、股价回调到位后，依然可以寻找再次介入的机会。

结语：

唏嘘一声！

这么多年，被认为风险巨大、庞氏骗局的比特币涨势如虹，屡创新高；而被认为安全边际很高，能够挺起脊梁的大A却十多年3000点上下浮沉，风雨飘摇，收割无数 ……

最新消息，香港财经事务及库务局局长许正宇表示，将确保加密货币以可持续的方式增长，并将继续加强与内地的联系，香港是下决心守住国际金融中心的地位了。

近期，不少财经博主发起了关于未来五年，哪种资产升值潜力最好的讨论。以下是部分网友投票：

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.1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 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.05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}