又跌破3000點！精準唱空的大摩為啥這麼神？

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大摩還是那個大摩，A股還是那個A股！

昨天，大摩又開始唱空A股，建議中國投資者現在獲利了結，今天上證直接跳水破了3000點，不少熱門股票紛紛大跌。大摩為啥還是這麼神？某隊又為啥不出手？

唏噓一聲！這麼多年被認為安全邊際很高，能夠挺起脊梁的大A十多年3000點上下浮沉，風雨飄搖，收割無數；而被認為風險巨大、龐氏騙局的比特币卻漲勢如虹，屢創新高……

在昨晚，監管層再次強調了資本市場要站穩人民立場，切實保護投資者特别是中小投資者合法權益。

期待這次别再讓大家失望了！

3000，再次失守

A股今天的慘淡程度，讓不少投資者又想起了一月底二月初的那個難熬時光。

從收盤後的資料看，滬指跌幅達到了1.26%，最終收盤在299點；創業闆指數的跌幅則更大，達到了2.81%，目前創業闆指數已經逼近60日線了。

如果說指數的跌幅還不能清晰表達市場的惡劣狀态，那就從個股的漲跌家數上來衡量。

今天兩市上漲的個股數量為476隻，而下跌的個股家數達到了接近4700家，兩市跌幅超過10%的個股達到了80多隻，從這種現象看，個股的全面向下數量超出了想象。之前 2800點左右的時候，當時候每天個股的上漲家數也就500隻左右。

盤面上，這3-4個交易日跌的多的品種基本上也是二月底三月初反彈最快的、概念蹭的

最狠的品種。

盤後，胡錫進發表最新炒股日記稱，今天又跌破了3000點。個人今天跌了7195元，總虧損重新破了5萬，達到50550元。這一輪前陣子最好的時候，我的虧損額曾達到2.5萬元左右。老胡說，我希望再次掉到3000點以下是和今年春天的天氣一樣“乍暖還寒”。

2024年的1月到3月，短短兩個月，我們感受到了A股一輪情緒完整的演繹：連續加速下跌後的恐慌與絕望，拐點的突如其來，反抽的暴力與急促，概念不斷地發酵至高潮，高潮後的乏力，退潮的迅猛……

每一個環節都是那麼清晰！

不少投資者感歎道：

當你接近回本時，反彈戛然而止；

當你獲利出局時，黑馬橫空出世；

當你自鳴得意時，空襲如期而至；

當你身無分文時，好股遍地都是; 當你滿倉抄底時，下跌才剛開始。

關鍵時刻，大摩為啥又說對了？

昨天，大摩又開始唱空A股，建議中國投資者現在獲利了結，今天直接被印證了。

上一次是在2023年8月3号，大摩建議投資者獲利了結，然後A股從3200直接跌到2600。

現在看，這兩次提醒獲利了結的時間點，真是精準。關鍵時刻，大摩為啥都說對了？

1、從宏觀層面來看：

在經濟潛在增速下降、需求不足和國民預期轉弱的大背景下，房地産和城投債熄火，地方政府投資發動機和商業銀行印鈔機也熄火，盡管中央銀行迅速擴表，中央政府加杠杆投資，但貨币傳導效率仍然低下，通貨膨脹自然熄火，經濟複蘇壓力大。

2024年“小陽春”沒有來，反而出現“倒春寒”。前兩個月，全國房地産開發投資同比下降9.0%，建立商品房銷售額下降29.3%，房地産開發企業到位資金同比下降24.1%。其中，定金及預收款下降34.8%，個人按揭貸款下降36.6%。另外，2月末，房地産庫存超過2016年的峰值，達到曆史最高位。

民間固定資産投資依然較低，前兩個月同比增長0.4%，扣除房地産的民間投資同比增長7.6%，低于總體固定資産投資增速。顯然目前的的宏觀氛圍并不支援指數轟轟烈烈、行雲流水的上漲，漲多了必然回吐，特别是不少蹭概念短期漲非常多的品種。

2、從微觀層面來看：

春節後的這輪行情演繹到現在，市場整體的定價已經偏充分，高位的加不動，低位的很多其他闆塊如核心資産、新能源等，邏輯上都有一些瑕疵。

A股終歸是一個強beta的市場。人工智能再好，再星辰大海，也不能一直瘋漲，相關公司這一個多月的漲幅是非常可觀的，不少都達到了翻倍左右，是以當下需要先緩緩調整一下啊。況且A股相關人工股票蹭概念的很多，有業績支撐，能業績兌現的還是少。

時間節點上來看，馬上就是一季度季報的密集披露期。很多公司的業績必然會被證僞，不少資金當然會提前兌現。

此前，國金證券提示及時止盈的邏輯也差不多就是以上這些。（1、房地産“主動去庫”風險；2、國内經濟通縮壓力加大風險；3、美國經濟放緩風險。根據最新一組資料顯示：一方面，美國經濟衰退迹象再次增加；另一方面，國内通縮壓力超預期加大；此外，房地産風險或将可能在二季度加快暴露。）

某隊今天為啥不強硬出手？

就今天尾盤的加速下跌，分析人士還提示了兩方面的導火索：

一是外圍市場，日本央行導緻美元走強，日元走弱，人民币亦跟随走低，緻使外資流出。

二是今天是ETF期權結算日。這可能是尾盤跳水的主要原因。ETF期權的結算日是每個月的第四個星期三，如果該日遇到法定節假日，則會順延。而今天恰好是周三。一般來說，期權結算日風險都不小。比如2月28日也是期權結算，市場就曾出現過大跌。

同時，今天不少投資者應該都在思考這麼一個問題：3000點附近，護盤資金為何沒有行動？

有市場人士認為，當下的救市不是機械式用資金堆積來影響市場向上，而是在觀察流動性的問題。

這波以中證2000指數為代表的寬基以及人工智能累計的獲利盤偏大，之前救市資金之是以出手援助，是因為當時整個市場的流動性缺乏，現在的問題不大一樣了，流動性目前沒什麼問題，而存在的是獲利盤的回吐，但是這個時候如果救市資金再像前期那樣，繼續給中小盤輸入流動性，那某隊自己就要成為“接盤俠”了。

簡單來說，目前的下跌，還是一個良性或者正常的動作，還沒有發展到惡性或者失控的時候。

是以未來的政策也比較清晰：市場分化

加劇，會更注重業績的兌現。緊密關注一季度的财報。人工智能方向上，一些純概念品種該出局果斷出局；而對于其中一些有基本面支援、未來依然有看點的股票在浮籌清洗出去、股價回調到位後，依然可以尋找再次介入的機會。

結語：

唏噓一聲！

這麼多年，被認為風險巨大、龐氏騙局的比特币漲勢如虹，屢創新高；而被認為安全邊際很高，能夠挺起脊梁的大A卻十多年3000點上下浮沉，風雨飄搖，收割無數 ……

最新消息，香港财經事務及庫務局局長許正宇表示，将確定加密貨币以可持續的方式增長，并将繼續加強與内地的聯系，香港是下決心守住國際金融中心的地位了。

近期，不少财經部落客發起了關于未來五年，哪種資産升值潛力最好的讨論。以下是部分網友投票：

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#1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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