On March 21-22, 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a two-day state visit to Bhutan. There are several memorable aspects of Modi's visit. There are three reasons for this:
First, it is rare for the prime minister to visit Bhutan after the announcement of the election date in India, which shows the importance it attaches to Bhutan.
Second, the visit coincides with the end of Bhutanese Prime Minister Tserin Togay's visit to India from March 14 to 18, and the exchange of high-level visits between India and Bhutan will accelerate the implementation of bilateral cooperation projects and release the core aspirations of both sides.
Third, Modi's visit comes at a time when the new Bhutanese government is redefining China-Bhutan relations and the direction of China-Bhutan border negotiations.
On March 22, 2024 local time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Bhutan for a two-day state visit to the small Himalayan country. (Visual China/Photo)
Bhutan in the cracks
In terms of regional situation, China-Bhutan relations continue to heat up, causing strategic concern in India.
In 2017, Sino-Indian relations began to decline after the Doklam standoff. In recent years, as the Indo-Pacific layout has gradually taken shape, India has tilted its strategy towards the United States and the West in exchange for its geographical advantage of containing China, resulting in the continuous bottoming out of China-India relations. With the development of relations between China and South Asia and the dissatisfaction of neighboring countries with India's dominant position, apart from Bhutan, there are pro-China political parties in other South Asian countries that may be elected, so most of them use China's presence to carry out strategic balancing against India.
Recently, the process of China-Bhutan border negotiations has gradually improved, and the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides has been put on the agenda again, which has shaken India's "sole guiding position" in Bhutan again, and based on the strategic particularity of Doklam and other regions and the security depth of the Siliguri Corridor (a narrow strip of about 20 kilometers between Sikkim and Bangladesh), India is very sensitive to the improvement of China-Bhutan relations, and tries to take further measures to trap Bhutan to protect national security.
In terms of timing, India, which is approaching the general election, wants to revive its neighboring policies, and the delay in the process of neutrality is the core of its campaign.
Although India has long guided Bhutan to pursue a policy of isolation in order to safeguard its own advantages, after the finalization of the "three-step process" of China-Bhutan negotiations in 2021, India has long anticipated the trend of establishing diplomatic relations between China and Bhutan, and the Modi government has long used Hindu nationalism and the "neighbor first" policy as its magic weapon in governance, and has taken maintaining India's dominant position in South Asia and strengthening India's exemplary relationship as an important component of India's "rise as a great power".
As the negotiation process between China and Bhutan deepens and solidifies and relations continue to warm, the stability of India-Bhudo relations and the effectiveness of the policies of its neighbors will once again be questioned by public opinion, or become a weakness of the election campaign. Therefore, Modi's visit to Bhutan has made great assistance and multi-party cooperation, stimulated the special friendship between the two countries through the "neighbor first" policy, confirmed the special bilateral relationship, and promoted Bhutan's cooperation with China, once again demonstrating his governing power and competitive advantages against China, boosting the confidence of domestic voters, and increasing the bargaining chips in foreign politics.
The former parliament formed the Bhutan United Party and the Prosperity and Progressive Party, both of which are responsible for promoting the development of their own countries through coordinated promotion between China and India, and both parties have shown "pro-China" tendencies in the eyes of India during different periods of government.
In 2013, then-Prime Minister Jigme Tinri of the Prosperity and Progressive Party (PRP) held a non-political meeting with the Chinese prime minister, which led to India's non-sanctions. In an interview with the Belgian newspaper Free Press in 2023, former Bhutanese Union Prime Minister Lotta Tsering, who actively promoted the China-Bhutan border negotiation process, denied China's "invasion" and regarded Doklam as a trilateral issue, which attracted strong criticism from India and was one of the key factors that led to the emergence of the People's Democratic Party with India's help.
As soon as the new Prime Minister Tserin Toje took office, Modi congratulated him with a message saying "for my friend", and Tsering Toje has now visited India 10 times. However, under the overall control of the King of Bhutan, although Modi was awarded the highest honor in Bhutan, the "Order of the Tenryong Gyalpo", he did not achieve his purpose in terms of China-related border issues.
When asked at a press conference whether the China-Bhutan border dispute had been discussed between Prime Minister Modi and Bhutanese leaders, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said it was only a "matter between the two countries" between China and Bhutan.
Modi's wooing
Under the influence of the pandemic, Bhutan's economy has been sluggish for a long time, and the domestic economic reform demands go beyond the gross national happiness growth model, and the current ruling and opposition parties are both focused on boosting the economy and reducing unemployment, and the new government has pledged to implement a 15 billion nu (Bhutanese currency) economic stimulus package within two months and achieve economic recovery within three years.
Therefore, Modi's use of money to open the way will be used as a reason for the 13th Five-Year Plan and the construction of a "city of mindfulness" to strengthen the new government's pro-India blessings and demand for India.
First, the economy will open up the way to strengthen Bhutan's dependence on India through connectivity and the development of special zones.
Modi sees Bhutan's new Prime Minister Tserin Toje as a close ally, and helping the People's Democratic Party (PDP) government deliver on its economic commitments is an important way to renew India's lack of control, demonstrate India's strength, and discourage its development needs with China.
At the same time, the King of Bhutan's vision of a "City of Mindfulness" proposed in December 2023 is adjacent to the India-Bhutan border, and the primary key to achieving regional connectivity and the hub of South and Southeast Asia to develop Bhutan is India's tolerance and support.
During this visit, Modi supported the government's new policy, doubling the amount of aid to Bhutan and offering a sky-high price of 100 billion yuan, and on the other hand, he invested in the king's favor and helped the "city of mindfulness" with sub-regional economic facilities.
Bhutan aspires to be a green city for a happy future. In his 116th anniversary speech to an audience of more than 30,000 people, King Wangchuck unveiled plans to build a new "city of mindfulness" in his kingdom. (Visual China/Photo)
Second, we need to put development first – support Bhutan's self-reliance through clean energy and low-carbon cooperation, and address China's development needs. The incumbent government's campaign slogan "Bring Change, Revive the Economy, Make Bhutan a Better Place" is a multi-faceted development need that is urgent, but also needs to be in line with a low-carbon and green development model under the Gross National Happiness Index and the King's vision of a "City of Mindfulness".
Therefore, Modi's visit focused on three major cooperations: energy cooperation to ensure the supply of petroleum energy, strengthen the development of solar energy, hydrogen energy and other green energy sources, and promote hydropower cooperation and electricity exports, second, technical cooperation to develop building codes in Bhutan with Indian standards, train energy audits, promote generic drug standards, and promote digital connectivity and space exploration, and third, exchanges and cooperation to strengthen cooperation in sports and youth affairs, pay attention to the construction of knowledge and education networks between India and Bhutan, and make up for the gap in development through tourism.
Overall, India wants to help Bhutan build a "self-reliance" based on India and meet its domestic development needs through the above three major cooperations, so as to reduce China's strategic importance to Bhutan.
Third, conceptual synergy - to reverse Bhutan's perception of India through diplomatic statements and cultural identity, and shape the future direction of the layout.
Judging from the expected results of this visit, Modi's primary intention is to sabotage the China-Bhutan border negotiation process, so as to continue his consistent China policy and demonstrate the Indian government's ability to contain China in the neighborhood under his leadership.
In the early stage of communication, Modi made huge concessions in aid and investment in exchange for Bhutanese compromise, and at the same time, the coercion of Bhutan will be further increased, and in the process, the Bhutanese top management may further clarify that the underlying logic of the "exemplary relationship" between India and Bhutan is India's hegemony and China-India policy layout rather than Bhutan's interests.
In order to salvage this situation, Modi took two major measures during this period, one is that India has changed its previous toughness and hegemony on the China-Bhutan border, and the foreign minister has called the China-Bhutan border dispute a "matter between the two countries", which not only shapes respect and trust for the small country of Bhutan, but also seeks a way out for Modi's failure to make a breakthrough on this issue after his visit;
In short, India has guided the trilateral public opinion through two major means, intending to further strengthen Bhutan's pro-India and distancing China's background.
• (Zhang Jiarui, Professor, School of Foreign Chinese, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics; Yao Jiatong, Student, Northeastern University; Cui Jiayu, Ph.D. Student, School of International Relations, Sichuan University)
Special researcher of the Southern Defense Think Tank, Zhang Jiarui, Yao Jiatong, Cui Jiayu
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang