When capital is crazy to buy the big countries in the East!

1

The first consensus in 2024, which was born at the global economic conference in Davos, Switzerland, last year, is that the growth engine of the global economy in 2024 will be in Asia, that is, East Asia and Southeast Asia.

The latest data is that the Taiwan stock market is already the best period in history.

But even more exaggerated is Japan, which has completely emerged from the haze of the Great Recession of 20 years, and has a strong economic recovery, which has a leading trend in Asia's economic growth.

In anticipation of strong growth, Japanese assets – both in Tokyo and Osaka and in the Japanese stock market – have surpassed their all-time highs.

Just on February 22, the Nikkei 255 broke through 39,000 points, making it the best-performing stock market not only in history, but also in the East.

Now, when we look back at all this, we need to figure it out:

What has allowed Japan to emerge from the quagmire that has lasted for more than 20 years, and not only to emerge, but also to regain its position as a growth leader in the East?

Behind this, what is Japan doing right?

No matter how you look at it, Japan's road to self-help is the best example of how we can cross the river by feeling the stones.

2

At this moment, when we analyze the reasons why the Japanese stock market is so strong, there are probably a few:

First, the traditional core capital situation in Asia as a whole is very poor, such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but Japan's economic situation is thriving, which leads to the continuous entry of capital.

As we have said many times before, capital seeks benefits and avoids disadvantages, and when an economy fails, capital flees from this pool of funds and then goes to pools of funds with higher certainty and stronger expectations.

This trend is the common logic of global capital, which is to earn income in such a continuous flow.

Since 2020, foreign capital dominated by Warren Buffett has continued to flow in, including many Chinese funds and capital.

Institutional capital is the main driver of this wave of Japanese equities. On the contrary, it is Japan's own retail investors who have retreated, because they have experienced a decline of 10,000 points in nearly one year in 1990, so they are more cautious.

But it is clear that 39,000 points is not the top of the Japanese stock market, just as Citigroup predicted that the Nikkei 255 will reach 45,000 points in 2024, and it is not necessarily correct.

Second, it is related to the depreciation of the yen.

The Japanese government is smart enough to keep the yen weak, and while this will require resistance to pressure and accusations from all other economies, it is clear that the Japanese government has no intention of compromising.

Specifically, the benefits of the depreciation of the yen to Japan can be divided into several levels.

1. It will greatly increase the overseas profits of Japanese companies.

For many years, Japan's domestic growth has been sluggish, but Japan has been able to maintain a strong GDP of the world's top three and a GDP per capita that has consistently exceeded $40,000. It basically relies on a large amount of overseas investment income.

Japan is a country that is very different from other countries, that is, entrepreneurs, loyal and patriotic, unusually grouped, all overseas investments, the final profits will definitely return to the mother country, the mother country has a strong centripetal force.

Therefore, many times, when we study Japan, we often like to study the management system, product capabilities, etc., but few people have thought about the patriotic spirit of Japanese entrepreneurs from the perspective of people's hearts and minds.

As a result, when these massive overseas investments enter the country, the depreciation of the yen exchange rate will greatly increase the original profits, and some people have estimated that for every 1 yuan of depreciation in Japan, the income of Japanese overseas companies will increase by 198 billion yen. A 10% depreciation of the yen means a 10% increase in the yield on Japan's overseas investments.

Eventually, all of this will be reflected in the growth curve of the company's revenue.

And these are the most favorite and most important basis for the capital market. Eventually, it will be reflected in the stock price.

2. It will greatly increase the willingness of overseas capital to invest in Japan.

From March to October 2022, the yen rose from 115 yen per dollar to 151 yen per dollar, and although it fluctuated, it eventually returned to 150. This means that the yen has depreciated by more than 30%.

The depreciation of the yen by 30% means that assets in Japan are collectively cheaper by 30%, and the same is true for land, labor costs, and real estate.

This means that it is more cost-effective to build a factory in Japan.

What's more, all of this is very fortunate to fit in with the international competitive situation.

First, the trade decoupling that began in 2018 has forced all core trading countries to take sides, or hedge their risks. This has brought about a spillover effect, and the industrial chain has begun to move to neutral countries.

Coupled with the West's implementation of industrial chain friendly outsourcing, Japan realized its own opportunities. In all of Asia, Japan has the most stable and moderate trade relations with developed markets, making it a major destination for FOKE.

The sharp decline in prices brought about by the depreciation of the exchange rate has allowed Japan to smooth out the investment price gap with developing countries.

Foreign investment in Japan has a strong value for money, and Japan has a very high-quality workforce, world-class corporate governance and execution, all of which make Japan full of competitive advantages in the pattern of global industrial reshaping.

And all of this will be reflected in the economic fundamentals, which is what we see as the vitality of the Japanese economy.

In the end, the ultimate reaction is still asset prices, such as the steep rise in the stock market, such as the property market in Tokyo and Osaka.

3

Generally speaking, Japan's economic vitality today must be thanked to one person, and that is Shinzo Abe, who is the work of Abenomics for a decade, which allows Japan to skillfully seize the opportunities in the current global game.

In fact, I would like to make a point very much about the fact that Japan's monetary and fiscal policies are perfectly coordinated and are the key means of Japan's economic revival.

Low interest rates can kill two birds with one stone, both by raising inflation and stimulating a moderate economic recovery, and by keeping the exchange rate depreciating.

However, while all this is good for the economy, inflation has a great impact on the lives of Japanese people. The only way to lift the impact is to raise interest rates, but interest rate hikes will constrain economic recovery, and the sinking of the past 30 years is because the economy has just recovered, and interest rates have been raised or restricted, resulting in a failure.

In November 2023, the Kishida government announced a fiscal stimulus package of about $113 billion, including direct tax rebates, direct payments to low-income households, and energy subsidies for residents.

This kind of wonderful combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy is like Zhang Wuji's Jiuyang magic skill and the great shift of the universe, which has become a wonderful combination.

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