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A letter to the new Chairman of the SFC...... What happened around the world during the Spring Festival?

A letter to the new Chairman of the SFC...... What happened around the world during the Spring Festival?

A letter to the new Chairman of the SFC...... What happened around the world during the Spring Festival?

  Value Line | produce 

    Hotspot | Column 

Bian Jiang| author 

   Jing Ke| edit

Value line guide

At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the stock markets of many countries and regions performed well and rose one after another.

Hong Kong stocks and FTSE China A50 Index futures, which are more closely linked to A-shares, are rising gratifyingly, will A-shares open stable tomorrow?

During the Chinese New Year holiday, the focus of the global financial market is still on AI, a wave brought about by generative artificial intelligence. Nvidia is still hitting new highs, surpassing Amazon's market capitalization, and ARM, a British CPU manufacturer, has doubled its share price during this period, becoming the new darling of the market.

AI, will we miss this revolution? Mapping to A-shares, what should we focus on?

Recently, a well-known person sent a letter to Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, putting forward 10 suggestions for the long-term, healthy and stable development of China's stock market.

How did the global stock market perform during the Chinese New Year?

1. The Japanese stock index is soaring and will hit a record high

During the Spring Festival holiday, the Nikkei 225, the world's mainstream stock market, performed the best, rising 4.31% to 38,487.24 points. This would also hit an all-time high (38,957) set more than 30 years ago.

2. Hong Kong stocks rose three times in a row, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.77%

Hong Kong stocks have performed strongly since the market opened on the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, rising in all three trading days. And the rise is getting stronger, on Friday, February 16, the three major stock indexes of Hong Kong stocks all rose sharply, up more than 2%. In the three trading days, the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.77%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 4.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index was stronger, climbing sharply by 6.89%, hitting a new high in nearly 1 month.

3. China A50 Index futures rose 2.76%

During the Spring Festival holiday, FTSE China A50 Index futures continued to rise. Wind market shows that except for a slight decline in the contract on Wednesday, the remaining four trading days all closed with gains. During the long holiday, FTSE China A50 Index futures rose 2.76%.

4. The three major U.S. stock indexes were weak, with the Nasdaq index performing the worst, down 1.34% to 15,775.65 points. The growth rate of U.S. PPI was higher than expected, and the expectation of interest rate cuts was frustrated, which suppressed the market's enthusiasm for longs.

The performance of large technology stocks in the United States was differentiated, with Microsoft, Apple, Google-A, and Amazon falling by 2.43%, 3.07%, 3.69%, and 0.19% respectively, while Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla rose by 4.27%, 0.71%, and 5.48% respectively.

Nvidia's market value has surpassed Amazon and Google one after another, becoming the third largest stock in the U.S. stock market capitalization, second only to Microsoft and Apple.

Global Spotlight: Sora is born!

From a global point of view, the absolute focus of the long holiday is undoubtedly the breakthrough of artificial intelligence!

On February 15, OpenAI announced the launch of its new generative AI model, "Sora."

On February 16, Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360, posted on Weibo to mention his views on Sora, and Zhou Hongyi believes that the birth of Sora means that the implementation of AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) may be shortened from 10 years to one or two years.

"Once the AI is connected to the camera and watches all the movies, all the videos on YouTube and TikTok, the understanding of the world will be far more than text learning, a picture is worth a thousand words, this is really not far from AGI, it is not a matter of 10 years or 20 years, it may be achieved soon in a year or two. Zhou Hongyi sighed.

He also mentioned that although the development level of domestic large models is close to GPT-3.5 on the surface, there is actually a gap of one and a half years compared with 4.0. OpenAl should still have some secret weapons in its hands, whether it is GPT-5 or the automatic generation of content by machine self-learning, "Ultraman (CEO of OpenAI) is a marketing guru who knows how to master the rhythm, and they don't have all the weapons in their hands. In this way, it seems that the gap between China and the United States in AI may continue to widen. ”

It is true that it will have a great impact on the overall video industry, including short videos, and at present, OpenAI is an auxiliary creation tool in the office, image or video industry.

Another angle is that it may bring disruptive innovation to the hardware carrier industry, such as mobile phones and computers. Recently, Chen Mingyong, founder of OPPO, said that 2024 is the first year of AI mobile phones, and the era of AI mobile phones will become the third stage of the mobile phone industry after feature phones and smart phones. AI can redo the experience of mobile phones, and this round of AI technology supported by large models is reshaping the future of the mobile phone industry. OPPO has established an AI center to accelerate the concentration of resources on AI.

Some market participants say that the core of the fourth industrial revolution is AI, and everything else is the edge. Recent AI-related news includes:

(1) Sam Altman plans to raise $7 trillion to make chips,

(2) Nvidia is going to make an ASIC and has launched a chatwhithRTX local deployment model, and the order for Nvidia's multi-mode optical module has been placed in the first quarter of 2025.

(3) Supermicrocomputer tripled in a month, reaching a total of 10 times increase (AI server) but fell 19.99% on the last trading day,

(4) Google launched a new Gemini 1.5 model, which has been greatly improved.

(5)苹果正在全力研发GitHubCopilot竞品 Xcode AI,

(6) The highest target price given by Nvidia is $1,200, and if this goal is reached, it will become the world's largest market capitalization, surpassing Apple.

Looking back at the almost a year since Chatgpt came out, the price of ultramicro computers has risen a hundredfold, Nvidia has risen almost fivefold, ARM has risen three times, and Intel has tripled. Even Microsoft, which is as big as an elephant, has doubled.

On Feb. 17, OpenAI reportedly closed a deal that valued the AI company at $80 billion, nearly tripling its valuation in less than 10 months.

The founder of OpenAI said that a new Moore's Law has emerged, and the world's computing power is doubling every eighteen months.

Not to mention whether this is true or not, the market has paid for it, and in less than a year, it has increased its market value by trillions of dollars out of thin air.

Capital needs new stories and new technologies, and new technologies will also give back to capital, investing limited resources and capital into advanced productive forces and into the new industrial revolution......

Look at what we're doing: the secondary market barely speculates on special valuations and high dividends, and the primary market only invests in profitable projects. In 2023, the total disclosed financing of China's primary market AI industry is only 47.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19% compared to 2022.

It won't be long before the world will be divided into the world of artificial intelligence and the world of artificial retardation. If we are cut off from the revolution of the new quality productive forces, when the times leave us, there will be no hesitation.

In short, the accelerated fermentation of AI during the Spring Festival will most likely be mapped to the next A-share market interpretation.

In addition, the cooling of US interest rate cut expectations and the escalation of the Taiwan Strait issue have also attracted more attention.

Domestically, what are the highlights of the holiday?

1. Investors have high expectations for the changes that the new head of the CSRC will bring

It is encouraging that the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission will urgently take office before the Spring Festival holiday! Normally, personnel changes at this level are not so fast, and there will even be roadside news that will come out first, but this time there is really none, and it was announced very suddenly.

Importantly, the CSRC issued two fines on Chinese New Year's Eve, one is a large punishment for 63 people including Xiong Jiantao, the former president of China Merchants Securities, for illegal trading of stocks, and the other is a punishment for fraud in the IPO of Shanghai Silxin Technology, which can be regarded as a statement to the market.

At the same time, it is rumored in the market that the China Securities Regulatory Commission will re-examine hundreds of companies planning to IPO one by one, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

In the past two days, there has been a small essay saying that the "new village head" will implement the 4321 bailout policy.

On the whole, the financial system has entered a cycle of strong supervision, and the current confidence level has gradually reversed.

2. Nearly 70 billion yuan will be lifted in the first week of the Year of the Dragon

On February 18, in the first week of the Year of the Dragon (February 19 to 23), 85 listed companies in the A-share market will usher in the lifting of the ban on restricted shares. Based on the latest price of individual stocks, the total market value of the unrestricted shares is 69.541 billion yuan. In terms of scale, the market value of Yangtze Power is the first, at 11.358 billion yuan, and the type is a private placement of institutional shares, corresponding to 461 million shares, accounting for 1.88% of the total share capital. Cathay Biotech and Hunan Yuneng ranked second and third respectively in terms of market capitalization, with 8.669 billion yuan and 6.889 billion yuan respectively. Sifang Optoelectronics, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, Kedali, Tongli Shares, and Yituo Shares 5 shares have a market value of more than 2 billion yuan.

3. The Financial Times, the head of the central bank: there is still room for downward movement in lending rates

On February 18, the Financial Times, the head of the central bank, issued an article saying that today, the central bank released information on the operation of MLF in February. Combined with the signals released by the central bank's previous statement, market participants believe that the MLF continues to exceed the quota, the liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant, and the loan market prime rate (LPR) may fall in the next two days, and the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is more likely to decline.

4. CCTV: On February 17, the box office of the 2024 Spring Festival movie exceeded 8 billion, breaking the record in Chinese film history. The average ticket price was 50 yuan, a slight decrease from 52.3 yuan during the Spring Festival last year. The downward trend of the film market is obvious, with the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities accounting for more than 54%, significantly higher than last year's 50%.

5. Fliggy: The Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has become the most popular Spring Festival tourism holiday in history, and the number of domestic travel bookings has greatly exceeded the same period in 2019, of which medium and long-term tours have increased by more than 3 times year-on-year, and the average travel date of independent travel has increased by 30% year-on-year. Outbound travel also hit a four-year peak, with bookings nearly 10 times higher than the previous year.

A shares are off to a good start, are they stable?

At present, institutional people are full of expectations for the upcoming A-share market.

Guotai Junan believes that the bottom of the market has appeared, and the bottom has been built steadily.

1) Taking into account the in-depth adjustment of the small and medium-sized market capitalization sectors in the early stage, as well as the historically low level of the guarantee ratio of the two financial institutions, the expected revision of high-risk preference investors has basically ended, and the "transaction bottom" brought about by the liquidation of the micro transaction structure has been confirmed;

2) The follow-up market will enter the Spring Festival - the two sessions of the policy, data, performance window period, can not be verified and falsified, January exceeded the expected credit demand, capital market supervision optimization and active capital market for liquidity care or will bring about the improvement of investor sentiment and short cover, the short-term rebound window after the holiday is expected to continue;

3) However, due to the lack of sustainable expected improvement momentum, the timing of the market bottom and the opportunity for market attack will not coincide quickly, and the index is still dominated by shocks and bottoms after the short-term market overshoot and rebound.

Specific to the theme, Guotai Junan recommends: AIGC/new quality productivity/production capacity to go to sea/low-altitude economy. 1) AIGC: The progress and effect of the Wensheng video model Sora exceeded expectations, and Google released the Gemini 1.5 model, which is optimistic about the content creation companies and computing power industry chain that benefit from improved efficiency and reduced costs. 2) New quality productivity: Win the new track to lead the new direction of industrial investment, and be optimistic about new technologies and future scenarios such as intelligent manufacturing/new materials. 3) Overseas production capacity: In the context of structural overcapacity and insufficient demand, we are optimistic about high-end equipment/hardware tools and cross-border trade under new consumption trends. 4) Low-altitude economy: optimistic about low-altitude aircraft manufacturing/core components/flight service companies.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said that in the early stage, there was a rare strong negative correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks. At this stage, the pressure on the capital side is easing rapidly, and the problem of A-shares is being solved. In this case, the linkage between A-shares and other markets is expected to gradually resume. During the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks continued to rebound, which may also become a clue to the over-falling rebound of A-shares and structural rotation.

Some market participants said that artificial intelligence will once again detonate the opportunities in the A-share market after the Spring Festival. The market has a memory, at the beginning of last year, it was because of the release of Ghatgpt that the whole detonated the concept of artificial intelligence in the market, especially the landing application of artificial intelligence.

Of course, in the new year, we still need to be in awe of some uncertainties and long-term risks, and do a good job in risk management.

2024 is a big year for global elections, and at a juncture where global geopolitical risks may be subject to major uncertainties, the tone of the policy will still focus on security, and the probability of major stimulus is unlikely.

Annex:

A letter from a well-known person to Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, put forward 10 suggestions for the long-term, healthy and stable development of China's stock market

The first recommendation is to put the protection of retail investors into practice. There are 210 million stock investors and 700 million fund investors in China's stock market, involving thousands of households, who are the largest contributors and devotees to China's stock market, and are well-deserved heroes, which are the main body of China's stock market in the past, present and future for a long time, which is the most basic fact. This is unlike any market in the world. Only by unswervingly caring for retail investors, defending retail investors, defending retail investors, and letting retail investors make money, this is the foundation for the long-term healthy and stable development of China's stock market.

The second suggestion is to protect the interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors. Maintaining a balance between the interests of investors and those of financiers is key. At the beginning of its establishment, China's stock market was originally intended to serve enterprises to solve difficulties, but now after 34 years of development, it has become the world's second largest market, and it should reach a new stage of investment and financing balance, and it should reach a new stage of beginning to attach importance to the interests of investors. This is the most basic prerequisite for the long-term, healthy and stable development of China's stock market.

The third suggestion is to maintain a balance between the primary and secondary markets. Maintaining a balance between the primary market and the secondary market is the basis for market stability. The emphasis on financing in the primary market, the continuous development of the light secondary market, and the inflated primary market into the secondary market are constantly importing bubbles, which is the root cause of the problem. How to effectively change the relationship between the primary and secondary markets is the basis for the healthy and stable development of the market.

The fourth recommendation is to bring in long-term funding vigorously. Design the financing speed with the speed of investment, the speed of investment is greater than the speed of financing, the market will rise, which is equal to not rising or falling, and less than will fall. Keeping the speed of investment introduction greater than or equal to the speed of financing, and using the speed of investment to design the speed of financing rather than the other way around, is the basic assumption of market stability.

The fifth proposal is to compensate small and medium-sized investors with fines. Fines imposed on non-compliant listed companies will be compensated to damaged investors, with a focus on compensating weak small and medium-sized investors. When a bank in any country fails, it gives priority to compensation to small depositors, and China's stock market should also establish this mechanism, which is a manifestation of fairness.

The sixth piece of advice is to allocate resources correctly. Improving the quality of listed companies, promoting shareholder culture, establishing the values of returning investors as their own responsibility, spurning the unhealthy trend of infringing on the interests of small and medium-sized investors, establishing a market mechanism of rewarding the good and punishing the bad, cutting off the chain of interests of cutting leeks, promoting the value of the correct investment concept, creating a positive cycle of good people, good stocks and good returns, and making the allocation of resources correct rather than mismatched, which is the key to the stock market to serve the real economy.

The seventh suggestion is to establish a truly fair evaluation system for retail investors. At present, there is an urgent need to change the situation in which the fund makes money but the fund holders do not make money, and the situation in which stocks jump up and down while shareholders, especially minority shareholders, do not, so that all fund holders and shareholders, especially minority shareholders, can make money, which should become the most critical evaluation indicator. This evaluation system will fundamentally change the behavior that harms the interests of retail investors. It is very important to establish a new evaluation system that allows retail investors to make money proudly. Any evaluation system that excludes market players from making money is nothing.

The eighth suggestion is to maintain the openness, fairness and impartiality of the market. Exposing all listed companies and investment institutions to the detriment of retail investors is important to building China's stock market into a vibrant, efficient, fair and healthy market. It enables China's stock market to truly realize the function of serving the real economy and truly promote the long-term, healthy and stable development of China's economy.

The ninth suggestion is to incorporate securities knowledge education into national education. It is called for the inclusion of investor education in the basic education of the people, the popularization of securities investment knowledge, and the raising of risk awareness. Investor education should be included in the curricula of primary and secondary schools, colleges and universities, vocational schools, and other schools at all levels, with financial literacy textbooks popularized in primary and secondary schools and universities as compulsory courses. Establish a correct concept of investment and financial management to avoid the next generation from repeating the mistakes of the past.

The tenth recommendation is to correct the names of retail investors and establish a bailout mechanism. The Small and Medium-Sized Investor Protection Fund should grow and play its role. The vast number of Chinese investors have made indelible contributions to the establishment, growth, and development of China's stock market, and are well-deserved heroes; when they encounter major difficulties, they should play the necessary help and role at critical moments, which is very beneficial to the stable and harmonious development of society.

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dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}: root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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