#头条创作挑战赛#
The time came to the early morning of February 8, the 125th day of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the 715th day of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
At present, a strange signal is: in the context of the increasingly fierce Russian-Ukrainian war, the United Kingdom, Poland and other NATO countries have put on preparations for war with Russia, which is obviously really intriguing - some views believe that this is a signal that the NATO army is about to end, and there are also opinions that this is essentially the old story of "three divisions".
So, how exactly will the situation develop?
1. A Sensitive Period: After Poland's defense minister declared that he was ready for war with Russia, Medvedev issued a tough warning
In the past two days, I believe many people have swiped such a blockbuster news.
Yes, it's Poland that might want Russia to go to war!
It is reported that on February 5, local time, the website of the German Press TV channel reported that Polish Defense Minister Kamesh officially announced that Poland is preparing for a possible war with Russia. Poland does not rule out the outbreak of war with Russia, for which Poland is preparing for a big war.
Moreover, Kamesh also said that this is not a casual statement, Poland has been carefully thought out and is moving forward with the entire combat readiness plan: the purchase of large weapons, the improvement of individual equipment, the inspection of military equipment and other issues.
So, for a while, it caused an uproar!
Polish Defense Minister Kamysz
At the same time, just as Poland was taking a tough stance, Britain also bared its fangs against Russia
On February 5, local time, the Russian Satellite News Agency reported that a source told the agency that Britain proposed to secretly transfer a large number of highly mobile NATO troops from the border areas of Romania and Poland to occupy the defense line on the right bank of the Dnieper River. However, according to sources, the British side understands that most NATO members are unlikely to support such measures now.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that on February 4, local time, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in an interview with the Sunday Times that Western politicians and media should avoid making pessimistic statements about the prospects of the conflict in Ukraine, and that the total economic volume of Western countries is 25 times that of Russia, and they are fully capable of proving that time is on the side of the West, not Putin.
It has been pointed out that obviously, in the context of the British proposal to send an expeditionary force to join the battlefield in Ukraine and the imminent loss of the strategic town of Avadiivka, Ukraine, the Polish defense minister's tough statement seems to be to guard against the invasion of Russia, but rather to make preparations for both.
More importantly, there is no doubt that Kamesh's words will be heard not only by the Russian public, but also by the Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans. Even other countries will be watching closely........
So, what do Russia, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States really think?
At the moment, Ukraine and the United States have not responded.
However, on February 7, the Russian side had already officially responded.
According to the Russian news agency Sputnik, on the same day, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on his Telegram account:
Sunak, Scholz, Macron, Norway, Finland, Poland and other NATO leaders are all chattering that "we must be ready for war against Russia." ”
Despite Russia's repeated emphasis that the conflict with NATO and EU member states is not planned, dangerous gibberish continues. The reason is obvious.
Because it is necessary to distract voters in order to justify spending billions of dollars on the annoying Bandera Ukraine issue. In fact, huge sums of money are being spent not on solving social tasks, but on the war of a dying country alien to taxpayers, whose population is scattered all over Europe and is now terrorizing its people.....
On February 6, the British Prime Minister: If Russia attacks, the United Kingdom will be ready to fight back
That is why the heads of state of these countries emphasize every day: the need to prepare for war against Russia and continue to provide assistance to Ukraine, as well as the need to produce more tanks, missiles, drones and other weapons.
But not all European bosses are cynically lying to their citizens.
If such a war breaks out, Russia will not conduct it as envisaged for a special military operation, it will not fight in the trenches with artillery, armored vehicles, drones and electronic warfare equipment.
Because NATO is a huge military bloc, the total population of the alliance member countries is about 1 billion, and the total military budget can reach 1.5 trillion US dollars.
Therefore, since our military potential is not comparable, we simply have no choice, and the response will be asymmetrical. ”
To defend the territorial integrity of the continent, ballistic and cruise missiles carrying special warheads will be used. It is well known on the basis of our military doctrine documents. This is exactly the book of Revelation. The end of it all.
It can be said that it is not difficult to find that, to some extent, Russia does not seem to have Poland in mind, but it is very afraid of a war with NATO.
The reason is simple, although in terms of conventional military power: NATO's 3.2 million troops put strong pressure on Russia, but the world knows that after all, NATO is a defensive alliance, and it is still a loose alliance in nature. Although with the fourth and fifth articles, many people in the outside world regard NATO as a whole.
However, on closer examination, NATO forces have never been at war with a nuclear power.
In the final analysis, everyone joins NATO not to bury themselves, but to enjoy more of the security provided by another nuclear superpower (the United States........
As a matter of fact, this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has made the world see clearly that Turkey, NATO's second military power, has very delicate relations with the United States and Britain. Hungary, Slovakia and other NATO countries have even announced that they will stop supplying weapons to Ukraine......
Therefore, to some extent, it may be more important to pay attention not to Russia's invasion of Poland after defeating Ukraine, but to consider whether the United States and NATO will push Polish troops to enter Ukraine......
Or is it to push for a Polish-Ukrainian merger?
Even, in the future, it cannot be ruled out that Russia may reach some kind of compromise with NATO, in which NATO recognizes Russia's actual control of territory, and Russia acquiesces in Ukraine's accession to NATO.
So, does this view make sense?
2. NATO generals: After the US election, a window for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will be opened, and Ukraine will join NATO
For now, Russia and NATO seem to be preparing for the worst-case scenario.
But given the terrifying balance of nuclear weapons, a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO is unlikely.
It is even more likely that at a particular point, the two sides compromise with each other.
In fact, not long ago, according to the Russian news agency Sputnik, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, James Stavridis, said that there is an opportunity for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine after the US presidential election later this year.
Stavridis put it this way:
"I believe that by the end of the year, probably after the US elections, we will have a chance to negotiate
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will end according to the scenario of the Korean War. This means that Russia may retain control over parts of Ukraine, as well as Crimea. In other words, I predict that Ukraine will join NATO. It seems to me that the contours of the Russia-Ukraine deal this year may become clearer. “
In addition, personally:
On the basis of facts, combined with many signs since the conflict, the words of Polish Defense Minister Kamyš may have released four major signals:
First, since Poland has changed its new prime minister, relations between Poland and Ukraine have begun to warm up significantly.
Second, the Polish people should strengthen their sense of danger and actively develop armaments and expand the size of the army. In a way, this may also seem to indicate that Poland's expansion was not going well
Thirdly, to show Ukraine that Poland can be a strong security support for Ukraine. Of course, there is no such thing as a free lunch!
Fourth, to make a statement to NATO or the EU that Poland is still willing to act as an anti-Russian vanguard, and of course, this must be rewarded
In other words, in the vernacular, Poland can become a bridgehead against Russia in the long term, but hopes that NATO or the EU will support the integration of Poland and Ukraine – or the reclaim of historical territory.
More subtlely, according to Red Star News, previously, on April 5, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suddenly flew to Warsaw, Poland to meet with Polish President Duda and Prime Minister Morawiecki.
And this is also Zelensky's first official visit to Poland since the outbreak of the 2 conflict.
In this important visit, what attracted special attention was that Zelensky, in his meeting with Duda, expressed his gratitude to Poland for always fighting side by side with Ukraine, and he also promised:
In the future, there will be no borders between the two countries politically, economically, and especially historically. Of course, to do this, we need to move forward more shoulder to shoulder.
And what is even more interesting is that:
Previously, on January 23, local time, "Asia Times" reported that in recent months, the United States and the European Union are developing a new Ukraine policy in response to the fact that Ukraine will lose the war and may need to evacuate Kyiv.
That is, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may soon dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, on the grounds that the fighting situation in Avadiivka is unfavorable, and support the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Budanov to the post.
Then, to ensure the continued functioning of a pro-Western Ukrainian government, there must be no political collapse like a coup: the United States will demand that Ukraine move its capital to Lviv and strengthen its control over Budanov.
This is equally thought-provoking.
Therefore, there is reason to believe that the astonishing remarks of the Polish Defense Minister and the British Foreign Minister are in essence illustrating:
Today's US-West and Ukraine are preparing for the worst!
It can be considered - the United States and the West, against the backdrop of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, have once again developed an amazing plan.
The final outcome may be as the situation map circulated on the Western Internet before:
Russia has had to make the decision to launch a more fierce offensive after the long-term pain is better than the short-term pain, while Ukraine, after completing the mission of weakening Russia, that is, when the military size and military potential are almost squandered, the fate of the country depends entirely on the results of the extreme game between Russia and the United States.
- At that time, Russia will take eight states, some of which will serve as forward buffers;
The four Eastern European countries represent the will of the EU to recover the historical territory, which is also a good explanation for the EU.
As for Kyiv, it is likely to join NATO in disguise, that is, to receive security guarantees from the 31 NATO countries.
Of course, this is just reasonable speculation, and things may not be that bad.
epilogue
By all indications, 2024 is a very critical year: some kind of change is brewing in global geopolitics around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US election.
In short, an early end to the conflict is expected.