People can't choose their parents and their origins, and countries have things they can't choose. For example, the geographical location of a country is naturally predestined. No country can choose its own geography, but there is no such thing as a good or bad geographical environment. The geography of any country is one of coexistence of advantages and disadvantages. The key is how to develop strengths and avoid weaknesses according to one's own actual situation. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western countries led by the United States launched a series of sanctions against Russia. Interestingly, Hungary, a member of NATO and the European Union, did not join the sanctions at first.
Hungary has repeatedly spoken out in support of Russia. Although Hungary finally decided to join the EU sanctions against Russia, even after that, Hungary basically had an attitude of not doing anything to sanction Russia. Russia did not add Hungary to the list of countries unfriendly to Russia in the first place. Russia added Hungary to the list of countries unfriendly to Russia after Hungary announced its accession to the European Union, but Hungary remains an outlier with which Russia maintains a special relationship within NATO and the EU. This peculiarity of Hungary is essentially determined by geographical factors.
Hungary is a landlocked country located in Central Europe. The country has a territory of about 93,000 square kilometers and a population of about 9,678,000. The origin of the Magyars, who make up about 90% of the country's population, has been disputed. The languages of the vast majority of peoples in Europe belong to the Indo-European language family, but the Magyars have traces of the Ural language family. The Magyars have the opposite of the surrounding Indo-European peoples, but they are the same as those of East Asia, which were heavily influenced by the Chinese civilization. There has long been a theory that the Hungarians are most likely descendants of the ancient Huns.
In addition to the Huns, the Finno-Ugric, Turkic, and Tatar people are also suspected to be the ancestors of modern Hungarians. It is now certain that the Hungarians were descendants of nomads from Asia, but it is difficult to say which of them. After Hungary converted to Catholicism around 1000 AD, it gradually completed its transformation from a nomadic tribe to a feudal state. Originally from the nomadic peoples of North Asia, the Hungarians have become a barrier between European civilization and the new nomads since they converted to Catholicism.
For more than 700 years, the Kingdom of Hungary fought against the nomads of the steppes of South Russia, the Mongol legions of the Western Expedition, and the Ottoman Turkish Empire. From 1699 Hungary was under the rule of the Austrian Habsburgs. In 1867, the Austrian Empire was reorganized into a dual system of Austria-Hungary: the Austrian Emperor and Chancellor served as the Emperor and Chancellor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the execution of the three major powers of military, finance, and diplomacy was controlled by the Imperial Government in Vienna, while Austria and Hungary, the two major subjects that otherwise constituted the Empire, maintained a high degree of autonomy.
Austria and Hungary effectively became two equal members within the framework of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a dualistic alliance. Hungary under the Austro-Hungarian Empire had its own relatively independent government and parliament. World War I, which lasted four years in 1918, ended with the defeat of the Allied bloc led by Germany and Austria-Hungary. Against this backdrop, Hungary seceded from the dualist empire on 2 November 1918. In 1920, Hungary lost three-quarters of its territory in the Treaty of Trianon with the Entente powers. Hungary has since lost all its coastline and has become a landlocked country.
Since the signing of the Treaty of Trianon, the Hungarians have been haunted by this historical "shame". The "Great Hungarianism", which aimed to restore the historical territory of the Kingdom of Hungary, came into being against this backdrop. Within the framework of this doctrine, Slovakia, Transylvania, Croatia, Burgenland in Austria, etc., were considered Hungarian territory. During World War II, Hungary tried to restore Greater Hungary by joining the Axis bloc led by Germany. In 1944, the Soviets occupied Hungary as a satellite of their own during a counterattack against the Germans.
In 1989, the political situation in Hungary also changed against the backdrop of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe. Hungary joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Hungary joined the Schengen Agreement in December 2007. The Schengen Agreement states are free to move people, goods and capital freely. Hungary's development can henceforth be backed by a huge European integration market. Hungary is a small, resource-poor landlocked country: Hungary has the third largest bauxite reserves in Europe, but other resources such as coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, iron, and manganese are extremely scarce.
As a landlocked country, Hungary has an insurmountable disadvantage in terms of maritime sea power, but Hungary has its own unique advantages in terms of land power. The Danube, which flows through 10 countries in Europe, connects Austria with other countries along the route. More than a hundred piers were built along the Danube. The Danube, with its well-developed shipping, is the main transportation artery of the European countries along its coast. Hungary is a landlocked country, but it is well connected by water. Hungary, located in the middle of Europe, is at the crossroads connecting the old developed countries of Western Europe such as France and Germany with the energy countries and emerging markets of Eastern Europe.
Hungary can not only connect with the markets of Germany and Austria to the west, but also go to sea to the south with the port of Koper in neighboring Slovenia, and is also on the main route for the export of resources from Eastern European countries such as Russia and Ukraine to Western Europe. In particular, with the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative, Hungary has become more and more important not only in the European geopolitical landscape, but also in increasingly close ties with distant Asia. Today, Hungary is located at the crossroads of several important trade routes between Europe and Asia. It is precisely this geopolitical environment in which Hungary finds itself that makes it an outlier among NATO and EU member states.
As a member of NATO and the European Union, Hungary has long maintained a special relationship with China and Russia: about 85% of Hungary's natural gas and 64% of its oil imports come from Russia. Hungary's nuclear power plants were designed and manufactured by the former Soviet Union, and subsequent expansion and maintenance projects were also carried out in cooperation with Russia. About 47% of Hungary's total electricity generation comes from nuclear power. Hungary is also eager to strengthen cooperation with China and other countries along the Belt and Road Initiative to change its relatively isolated environment as a landlocked country.
On the other hand, Hungary must maintain good relations with the developed countries of the West. Hungary's strategic value lies in its geographical location connecting Western and Eastern Europe and even Asia. Hungary can only ensure the maximization of its interests by maintaining friendly relations with the developed countries of the West and China and Russia at the same time. However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has become more and more difficult for Hungary to continue to maintain this diplomatic strategy of "stepping on two boats". This will require a certain balance on the part of the Hungarian leadership: Hungary may take a pro-Western stance on some issues, while it may be closer to China and Russia on others.
Therefore, when NATO and other EU member states began to sanction Russia, Hungary did not immediately follow up, but used its special status to speak for Russia within NATO and the EU. But we do not consider Hungary to be a pro-Russian country. In fact, Hungary's actions are based solely on its own national interests. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has made it clear that Hungary wants to never border Russia. This shows that Hungary is actually wary of Russia's potential threat on the territorial issue. After all, the Soviet Union also intervened in the October events in Hungary back then.
Hungary eventually joined the European Union's sanctions against Russia. This is not due to a blind herd mentality, but is the result of a careful weighing of practical interests. Hungary's dual position between the EU and Russia is actually based on its national interests and the desire to find a balance on all fronts. From time to time, Hungary can play a unique role in the European political arena by making some different moves and voices different from other EU member states. It is also a strategy for Hungary to enhance its voice and presence in European affairs.
Hungary strongly opposes Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Ukraine's accession could lead to a redistribution of power and benefits within the EU. Hungary is a small country that does not carry much weight within the EU. If Ukraine, a country with a relatively large area and population in Europe, joins the EU, it is likely to further reduce the space for small countries such as Hungary to speak. There is a gap between the economic level of Hungary and other former Eastern European bloc countries after they have switched to NATO and the European Union and the old developed countries in Western Europe, so the EU has long provided financial assistance to Hungary and other newly joined Eastern European member states.
Once Ukraine joins the EU, it is likely that Hungary will lose part of its economic benefits. In addition, Ukraine's accession to the European Union and possibly NATO in the future will further intensify the geopolitical game between Russia and the West. Hungary, which is in between, will be in a situation similar to that of sandwich biscuits. Today, Hungary is separated from Russia by Ukraine. This gives Hungary relative freedom of choice. If the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine are fully intensified and even Russia fully occupies Ukraine, then Hungary will have to face a dilemma like Ukraine.