The 2700-point forced liquidation warning line, the closer to the rebound, the greater the chance of rebound
Today's news:
[Powell said that it is unlikely to cut interest rates in March, and the three major indexes of U.S. stocks collectively closed down] The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell said that it was unlikely to cut interest rates in March. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively overnight, with the Nasdaq falling 2.23%, the biggest one-day decline since October 25 last year, up 1.02% in January, the S&P 500 falling 1.61%, the largest one-day decline since September 21 last year, up 1.59% in January, and the Dow falling 0.82%, the largest one-day decline since December 20 last year, rising 1.22% in January. The three major indices all recorded three consecutive monthly gains. Most of the big tech stocks fell, with Google down 7.5%, the biggest one-day drop since late October last year, and Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft and Meta down more than 2%.
On the afternoon of January 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 11th collective study on solidly promoting high-quality development. When presiding over the study, the senior management emphasized that it is necessary to keep in mind that high-quality development is the last word in the new era, fully implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a modern economic system, promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, coordinate the promotion of in-depth reform and high-level opening-up, coordinate high-quality development and high-level security and other strategic tasks in place, improve the assessment and evaluation system for promoting high-quality development, and lay a solid foundation for promoting high-quality development. The development of new quality productivity is the internal requirement and important focus of promoting high-quality development, and we must continue to do a good job in innovation to accelerate the development of new quality productivity.
[Ministry of Finance: Continue to arrange a certain scale of local government special bonds and appropriately increase the scale of investment in the central budget] Vice Minister of Finance Wang Dongwei said at a press conference today that efforts will be made to expand domestic demand. Mainly from the two aspects of investment and consumption. From the point of view of investment, it is necessary to expand investment with benefits. This year, we will make good use of the relevant treasury bond funds, continue to arrange a certain scale of local government special bonds, appropriately increase the scale of investment in the central budget, and so on, so as to give full play to the amplifying effect of government investment. From the perspective of consumption, it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption. In 2024, we will focus on the direction of upgrading residents' consumption, promote the expansion of new growth points such as culture, tourism, education, and pension, increase social security, transfer payments and other adjustments, increase the income of urban and rural residents, and improve the willingness and ability to consume.
[In 2023, the national general public budget revenue will exceed 21 trillion yuan, and the fiscal revenue of 31 provinces will all achieve positive growth] At the press conference of the State Council Information Office held today, the Ministry of Finance released the 2023 fiscal revenue and expenditure, showing that the national general public budget revenue exceeded 21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Fiscal revenues have resumed growth, and all 31 provinces have achieved positive growth. The income of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions increased by 6.7%, 6.9%, 10.7% and 12% respectively. Fiscal funds are taken from the people and used by the people, and the national general public budget expenditure reached 27.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent.
[Caixin China Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.8 in January 2024, unchanged from the previous month] The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2024, released today, recorded 50.8, unchanged from the previous month. For the first time since June 2021, the index has been in expansion territory for three consecutive months.
[The proportion of A-shares breaking the net is more than 10%, approaching the bottom level of 2008!] Recently, the overall performance of the A-share market has been weak, and the number of broken shares has also increased again. According to statistics, the number of broken net shares in the A-share market has reached 558, and the number of broken net shares and the proportion of broken net shares have hit a new high this year. In addition, according to statistics, more than ninety percent of the current group of broken net shares are mainly owned by companies, and the characteristics of state-owned assets and medium and large market capitalization are relatively distinct. From the perspective of industry distribution, real estate, basic chemicals, banking, building decoration, medicine and biology, transportation, non-bank finance, commerce and retail, steel, environmental protection, public utilities and other industries have relatively more net broken stocks.
On the evening of January 31, A-share listed companies intensively disclosed the announcement of their intention to repurchase shares and the announcement of the plan to increase the shareholding of important shareholders, and the number increased significantly compared with the previous period, forming a new wave of "repurchase and increase in holdings". It is worth noting that a number of companies mentioned in the announcement that they will effectively promote the action plan of "improving quality and efficiency and emphasizing returns".
The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 43 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 466 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase today, a net withdrawal of 423 billion yuan was realized.
As of January 31, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 792.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.754 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 706.933 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.599 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total financing balance of the two cities was 1499.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.353 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net inflow of northbound funds of 3.8 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net inflow of northbound funds was 3.833 billion.
This morning, the market opened 15 points at 2773 points, bottomed out at 2752 points, rushed up 2805 points, and closed at 2794 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500, CSI 1000 rose 0.29%, 0.74%, 0.2/0%, 1.34%, 1.91%, 1.99%, 0.95%, 0.16%. The ratio of individual stocks is 2123:3040, and the ratio of price limit is 37:39. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 485.3 billion, an increase of 16.4 billion from the previous trading day.
The result was a record 6 consecutive negative monthly periods, and the indices fell hugely: the CSI 50 fell 3.19%, the CSI 300 fell 6.29%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 13.77%, the ChiNext fell 16.81%, the Science and Technology Innovation Board fell 19.62%, the CSI 500 fell 13.49%, and the CSI 1000 fell 18.72%. A one-month decline in other countries' stock markets is equivalent to a one-year decline in a bear market. This is a rare plunge in January after three consecutive years of decline in A-shares.
After falling below 2,800 points again yesterday to close at 2,788 points, the management did not introduce any rescue measures. At the beginning of this morning, it plummeted to 2,752 points, and at 10 o'clock, the national team began to rise sharply from the four major ETFs. At the same time, yesterday and today, the high-level of the State Council and the central high-level level, successively emphasized the "accelerate the development of new quality productivity and solidly promote high-quality development", stimulated by the continuous decline of new quality productivity high-tech stocks, and finally broke through the 2,800 integer mark several times. Before noon, except for the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 green plate, the rest of the nine major indexes were red. In particular, the ChiNext Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the CSI 500 and the CSI 1000 have stopped the decline.
Judging from the disk, in addition to the 10-day 9-board of China Television Media, the rest of the Chinese prefix and Shanghai state-owned stocks have fully ebbed, and Shanghai Phoenix, China Enterprises, and Huajian Group have also continued to fall to the limit. When the board is up and down, there is no amount of empty rise, and when the board falls down, it is large to kill and fall, and how to go up and down. Junk stocks can't pass off as diamonds, and the speculation eventually becomes "big and small", set on a high hill.
When it fell below 2800 points again, the market was pessimistic and joined the team to kill the fall. But I think investors need to be soberly aware that the valuation of A-shares has hit a record low, lower than in January 17 years ago, and the lowest in the global stock market, with 550 individual stocks, or 10% of stocks, breaking the net, equivalent to the 2008 financial crisis. The vast majority of them are state-owned stocks and large-capitalization stocks, involving the national economy and people's livelihood industries. At the same time, the number of companies that supplemented equity pledges in January surged by 86% month-on-month, with a market value of more than 2 trillion yuan and a financing disk of 1.5 trillion yuan. It is expected that when the stock index falls to 2,700 points, it will be liquidated, resulting in a liquidation crisis, triggering a liquidity crisis like in 2015, and endangering the country's financial security, economic security and social stability. This situation is undesirable and intolerable to all parties.
Therefore, the closer to 2700 points, the greater the chance of rebounding and counterattacking, especially the new high-tech stocks with a continuous killing, overfalling, and price-earnings ratio of only more than ten times, as the annual report disclosure is approaching, there will be a retaliatory rebound.
Due to the deep and fast decline of the market in January, the lower shadow is equivalent to a one-year bear market. Once again, I think that once this year's spring market starts, as long as it recovers 3,000 points, the strength will exceed last year's. We firmly believe that China's stock market will not collapse! When the 2,700-point warning line is reached, there will be a "king bomb." This is also a rare opportunity for investors to play at the bottom of history, and the winning side is definitely greater than the losing side, depending on the wisdom and courage of the individual.
From the perspective of market opportunities, I think there are two main lines: one is high-quality, low-valuation, high-dividend central enterprises (not necessarily Chinese prefixes) and state-owned enterprise stocks with market value management themes. Second, high-quality high-tech stocks with new quality productivity. As far as investors who have difficulty in selecting stocks are concerned, a month or two ago, I repeatedly stressed that it is better to buy the stocks of the four major banks and the 10 private bank stocks with high dividends than to buy the stocks of the four major banks and the top 10 private bank stocks with high dividends, and so far they have not only caught the continuous sharp decline in the stock market, but have made a profit of more than 10%, far exceeding the bank interest rate since three or five years. Another goal is to protect the national team and set 10% of the CSI 300 ETF and SSE 50 ETF, and when the national team unbundles, you will make a profit. During the period, if you buy low and sell high, or T+0, the return will be greater.
Afternoon attention: Can the bottom of the market close above 2790 points? Can the top close above 2830 points? Can the four major ETFs of the national team continue to expand, and can the four major bank stocks turn red? Can the northbound funds continue to expand on the basis of the net inflow of 3.8 billion yuan in the morning? Can the situation of 2123:3040 stocks falling more and rising less reversed? Can the trading volume be more than 750 billion?