Nick Fry, the former CEO of Mercedes F1 Team, believes that the team's technical department will struggle to build a car that can beat Red Bull and win the World Championship.
Fry led the BAR and Honda teams from 2002 to 2008, winning double world championships with Ross Brown and Barton after the team was renamed Brown GP. After the team was acquired by Mercedes in 2010, Fry remained as CEO until 2013, when current team principal Wolf took over.
Wolf led the team to an unprecedented eight consecutive championships, but the once-dominant team now faced a major challenge when the team misused the zero-side box design in the new ground effect era, which prevented the team from competing for the world championship for the second year in a row. Last year, there was no race win, and only Ferrari was beaten to win the second place in the Constructors' Year.
Mercedes officially abandoned the zero-side box concept at last year's Monaco Grand Prix in favor of a more traditional design. The team is now working on the 2024 W15 in hopes of beating Red Bull to reclaim the World Championship, which will be unveiled on 14 February, and Wolf has previously said that this year's W15 figures in the simulator are very good.
However, Fry is skeptical that his former club will be able to close the gap on Red Bull, let alone surpass the team that is already working on a 2025 car. "I'm sorry to say that, but I think the technical team at my former employer, Mercedes, has lost its former glory," Fry said. 」
"It's an extremely difficult task to compete with the team at Nuvey, Mercedes is a great team, but they are already far behind due to the different technical routes. The fleet is being upgraded faster and faster every year, but spending 1 or 2 years working on a useless concept can cause a lot of trouble. 」
"They're learning what Red Bull mastered a long time ago, so it's hard for them to catch up. I'm sure they're not too bad, but I'm not sure if they're going to be very good, and I don't think Mercedes can hold Red Bull down. I don't want to admit that because I have a deep affection for this team, but I think it's going to be difficult this year. 」
Fry believes that Red Bull's number one opponent this year is Ferrari: "I think Rally will continue to improve, Vassell is a very experienced team leader and I think he will withstand pressure from the Italian media and lead the team forward. I'm confident he'll do a good job of keeping the team calm and Ferrari is the team most likely to challenge Red Bull. 」
Mercedes' contract situation is relatively stable, with Hamilton and Russell both expiring in 2025, with the 39-year-old Hamilton aiming for a record-breaking eighth title, while Wolf and technical director Alisson have also renewed their multi-year contracts.
However, this year's technical rules remain largely unchanged, giving teams time to improve their cars and challenge for the championship. In addition to Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari, Martin and McLaren are not to be underestimated, and may even be on the rise, so 2024 will be a pivotal year.