According to New Energy Socialist, the price of N-type polysilicon in the upstream polysilicon sector has continued to rise in recent weeks, and the N-P price spread has been widened from the source. Downstream power plant developers and investors also said that the N-P price spread has widened when purchasing modules in the near future, but they believe that the main source of the current N-P price difference is that P-type products have taken the initiative to reduce prices and widen the gap. In the past, the pricing model of p-type as the price benchmark and the appropriate premium for n-type is gradually being broken with the increase in the proportion of n-type.
Taking Jinkai New Energy's 2024 centralized procurement of photovoltaic modules (1GW) opened on January 25 as an example, the bidding price difference between n and p modules of the same enterprise is 1.2-10.4 cents/W, with an average of 4.76 cents/W, which does not seem to be low, but in fact, one of the two companies with a price difference greater than or equal to 0.1 yuan/W for n-p is choosing HJT products with a higher price, and the other company's n-type modules are also lower than the overall average price, and the price difference is high because they voted 0.77 yuan in the p-type part. W's ultra-low price (excluding freight) broke the low price record of 0.79 yuan/W for p-type in Huaneng Group's 2024 10GW PV module framework agreement procurement bidding. Obviously, despite the recent rise in upstream prices, cell and module prices are still stable and declining, and p-type modules are bottoming out, allowing the relevant production capacity to play its last value before being eliminated.
According to the tender announcement, the total capacity of this centralized procurement of photovoltaic modules is 1GW, and the demand for modules is p-type monocrystalline double glass 550W and above, n-type monocrystalline double glass 580W and above. Although the tender announcement does not specify the specific proportion of n-type and p-type, according to the new energy social review, including Jinkai New Energy, the proportion of n-type in the centralized module procurement of most central state-owned enterprises in 2024 has increased significantly, generally more than 70% or even higher, indicating that more and more power plant investors are willing to adopt new technologies and new products to reduce the LCOE of power plants, leaving more and more limited market space for p-type.
Specifically, look at this bidding:
● The bidding price of p-type double-glass modules is 0.77-0.87 yuan/W, and the average price is 0.8471 yuan/W. Among them, the average bidding price of 4 first-tier brands (the top 4 companies in module shipments in 2023, the same below) was 0.850 yuan/W, and the average bidding price of 4 new first-tier brands (the top 5-9 companies in module shipments in 2023, the same below) was 0.856 yuan/W, which was slightly higher than the overall average.
● The bidding price of n-type double-glass modules is 0.8564-0.935 yuan/W, with an average of 0.8947 yuan/W. Among them, the average bid price of 4 first-line brands was 0.889 yuan/W, and the average bid price of 4 new first-line brands was 0.885 yuan/W, which was slightly lower than the overall average.
After comparing the prices, it is found that the N-P price spread between the first-tier and new first-tier brands is significantly lower. In this bidding, the N-P spread of the first-tier brands is only 3.9 cents/W, and the N-P spread of the new first-tier brands is only 2.9 cents/W. Analysts believe that N-type products are currently attracting much attention, and enterprises with low N-P spreads, good overall performance and reliable supply chains in mixed bidding are more likely to be favored by central state-owned enterprises. In this bidding, a number of first-tier and new first-tier brands offered very competitive prices and were more active in winning orders, which is conducive to their consolidation of market share and position and better performance in 2024.
The first-line brand logo is yellow, and the new first-line brand logo is blue
All ex-works prices are excluding shipping