Text—Yao Jiening
At the beginning of 2024, everything is not going well on the whole planet, and there are escalating military conflicts in different parts of the world, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Red Sea crisis, Iranian artillery battles, and North Korean rockets. Recently, in response to the fact that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has plummeted from 17,000 points at the end of last year to break through the psychological threshold of 15,000 points, there has been an atmosphere of panic in the Hong Kong market. Since the end of last year, a number of Legislative Council Members have proposed that the HKMA should use the Exchange Fund to enter the market, as it did in response to the Asian financial crisis in 1998, in order to boost the market's confidence in Hong Kong stocks. However, in response to a Member's question at the Legislative Council meeting in November last year, the Chief Executive of the HKMA, Eddie Yue, said: "Unless there is a very serious threat to Hong Kong's financial security and stability (as was the case in 1998), the Government should refrain from intervening directly in the local securities market, as market operations conducted by the Government are inconsistent with Hong Kong's market-based approach and will affect the confidence of international investors in Hong Kong's investment market." ”
Whether the drop from 10,000 to 10,000 is a "serious threat"? The government has not yet had a clear definition. Recently, the Chief Executive also responded, "Pay close attention to the volatility of the stock market, and temporarily see that the market is operating in an orderly manner and there is no unusual situation." "Is this really true? The most unusual thing is that the global stock market is up, except for Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, which is clearly a human factor, not a market factor. The chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association has said a few days ago that he believes that some American and European investors continue to reduce their holdings of Hong Kong stocks, and he believes that this will "hurt the market". In fact, there have long been traces of U.S. and European investment institutions continuing to push Hong Kong stocks down. The U.S. Federal Retirement Savings and Investment Board announced in November last year that it had decided to exclude the $771 billion portfolio of assets that manage the retirement benefits of 7 million U.S. civil servants, excluding Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, and changing the index tracked by international funds. This means that the United States has used more than $700 billion in silver bullets to wage war against the stock markets of China and Hong Kong.
Some people in the financial circles said that the United States has a good strategy, that is, it will explain before the action what kind of deployment it will have. The financial sector is generally more sensitive to market changes than the public, and even when securities firms advertise that they want to buy US stocks, the stocks of the mainland and Hong Kong have long been uninterested. Some mainland Internet celebrity current affairs commentators also said earlier that they used real money to enter the market to support, but the result was also a loss. Recently, some public opinion in Hong Kong also said that officials, guilds and legislators should use their salaries to enter the market to support Hong Kong stocks, and not to "let others rush and relax themselves". Some members of the financial sector have told the media that they have already sold their stocks and now account for less than 10% of their assets. These first-hand sources have followed the US to sell Hong Kong stocks to cash out, which does not seem to be in line with the pace of the recent national bailout. It is rumored that the state will allocate 2 trillion yuan of overseas funds and 300 billion yuan of mainland funds to play a "combination punch of bailing out the market", with 2.3 trillion yuan against 700 billion US dollars, and the pattern of financial warfare has been formed.
When announcing the performance of the Exchange Fund on 26 January 2024, the Chief Executive of the HKMA said that 25 years ago due to the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the use of the Exchange Fund to enter the market was part of the long-term asset allocation. This means that the Hong Kong government has no intention of bailing out the market. The country launched a bailout measure, but the Hong Kong government was unmoved, saying that this approach would affect the confidence of international investors, but it is better to say that the Hong Kong government is waiting for the 2 trillion North Water to buy A-shares through Hong Kong to save the market, and then it can be saved. As mentioned above, the US Government has used the Hong Kong stocks held by the pensions of US civil servants to slowly bleed Hong Kong stocks, and the $771 billion is equivalent to about 5.5 trillion yuan, and the 2.3 trillion yuan is obviously only half of the opponent's funds.
Whether Hong Kong is a Buddhist or an ace will have to wait and see what happens. As a current commentator or stock commentator, knowing that it is an international financial war, not only did he not remind the small public to avoid risk, but also persuaded the shareholders to take advantage of the low price. Of course, if you have spare money and think that the current market situation is that Hong Kong stocks are oversold and suitable to enter the market, then you must be mentally prepared. Of course, the author firmly believes that there must be opportunities when there is a crisis, and since it is a battle of state-level funds, all patriots must and should stand on the same front of the national team to defend the stability of the overall financial market, and should never make irresponsible remarks of "calling others to rush and releasing themselves". The author advises you not to mistakenly believe any so-called experts or Internet celebrities, saying that there is a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, and it is best to save your life and capital, but I hope that the mainland can turn the danger into a disaster without using the hole card of Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves.
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