▼ Text: Niu Benben
In the recent economic climate, one piece of information has attracted a lot of attention: the consumption data for 2023 seems to be quite disappointing, raising doubts about the domestic and even global economic situation, and spreading a suppressed but inevitable anxiety. Behind this anxiety is uncertainty and worry about "high winds and turbulent waves", and the main risk is undoubtedly triggered by the dynamics of the United States. But the real concern and concern is why, even in the face of all this, we don't seem to be seeing a massive stimulus strategy?
What we need to think about is why a large-scale economic stimulus has not been launched at a time when the economy is so fragile and people are full of so many doubts about the future? Why have policymakers maintained a steady attitude and not increased stimulus at a time when the manufacturing PMI has fallen into a slump and people's confidence has been shaken? Is this a deliberate decision or a helpless passivity? These issues not only concern the personal interests of each of us, but also have a direct impact on the direction of the national economy.
1. Understanding the economic trend from a macro perspective
First of all, from a global perspective, even if countries have adopted different strategies in response to the pandemic and economic difficulties, the end result is that everyone is constantly trying to find a suitable path for their own economic development.
For example, in the United States, there are banking problems on one side and the debt ceiling on the other, while Japan and South Korea are struggling economically, but the stock market has entered a bull market.
The short-term trend of our real estate stocks is "very special", but one of the reasons for the "special" trend in the context of seemingly stable growth is the lack of market capital inflow.
It also makes people wonder if our economic situation is essentially controlled by the "visible hand", and under the guidance of the visible hand, everything runs according to the predetermined route.
2. Subtle considerations by economic policymakers
Second, we note that even in the face of fluctuations in the external environment and unstable market expectations, policymakers do not choose to intervene arbitrarily, but choose to stand on a larger perspective and consider longer-term, more global issues.
Is the real reason because we are waiting for a bigger opportunity?
They are well aware that excessive intervention can distort market mechanisms and that indiscriminate stimulus can have serious consequences.
It is likely that policymakers are waiting for a bigger opportunity, an opportunity to achieve economic rise, an opportunity to really drive China's economic development. On this issue, let's delve into the possibilities of the next step.
Third, the delicate equilibrium of the global economy
More specifically, we can't deny that there is a delicate balance in the global market.
The United States, in particular, is under pressure from banking problems and the debt ceiling while at the same time performing in the stock market.
This delicate equilibrium is actually a reflection of the rising debt problem and their efforts to save the economy.
Interestingly, this has also indirectly contributed to a kind of economic strategy on the mainland - to maintain stability and not easily increase leverage.
In fact, we are trying to steer the US and Western countries to increase their leverage so that they can switch offense and defense after their debt problems escalate.
Fourth, the cost-effective consideration of China's economy
It seems that those who are not tempted, China actually stands taller and sees farther.
It's not that we don't want to increase leverage, but we are still waiting for the United States and Western countries to explode.
We clearly recognize that they have been increasing their leverage, superimposing high interest rates, and interest alone is killing them. The harder they burn money, the closer it is to us to the moment when they fall to the ground and vomit blood.
The strategy behind this is not simply to sit and wait, but to consciously invest and lay out with limited resources. When the weakness of the United States and the West is revealed, and welfare is lost, we can force leverage to stabilize domestic demand, and at the same time seize the global economic map and high-quality supply, which will be an important node in China's industrial upgrading.
Now we are like a fort full of shells, just waiting for the wind to arrive, and only the east wind is owed. Just like Russia's play in the Russia-Ukraine invasion, this logic is also the same. Despite the ridicule of the outside world, Russia is engaged in a conflict of controlled moderate intensity. In essence, they are also consuming the United States and Western countries in reverse, making them continue to borrow and burn money, which is equivalent to pushing the debts of the United States and Western countries to the brink of gradually getting out of control.
Looking to the future:
To sum up, we indirectly lead to a possible crisis in our indifference, waiting for an opportunity for an economic rise. In fact, this is only a reflection of China's economic strength behind the seemingly calm macro market, and it is also a manifestation of our clear expectations about the future.
In this way, the public's concerns about PMI data and the like should not be too much of a concern, because what economists are waiting for may be a larger and more important strategic opportunity.
However, everything is changing, and in this heartbeat game, how to grasp the direction and pace of future investment is a major test for everyone involved.
Although it is unlikely that China will increase its leverage under the current circumstances, this does not mean that one day in the future, we will not change our strategy and increase stimulus.
As for when such changes will occur, and what factors will affect them, we need to have enough understanding and insight. If we can understand the underlying logic of the present, it may be of great help to us in predicting the future. However, whether we can be ready to meet the possible outlet at any time, and whether we can make full use of this outlet, requires us to continue to discuss and explore, and discover new perspectives and new answers to the problem.