The United States, the Philippines, and Germany are engaged in a diplomatic wheel war against Vietnam, will Vietnam be "instigated" by the West? India is in the Maldives, and Modi's dream of becoming a great power is about to be shattered? Argentina strikes, and Milley enters the countdown to step down?
Can the West's wheel-warfare-style diplomacy pull over Vietnam and "instigate" Vietnam?
In recent years, Vietnam has become the "sweet spot" of the international community, especially the Western camp, which has thrown its chips into Vietnam. The United States and its allies hope that this country, which is geographically located and full of economic development potential, will fall to the Western camp and become an anti-China bridgehead in the future.
In 2023, a series of U.S. efforts have paid off, with Vietnam upgrading its diplomatic relations with the U.S. to the level of a strategic partner, but not completely tilting toward the West and severing ties with China. So at the beginning of 2024, the United States and its allies began to exert their efforts again, launching a round of "diplomatic wheel warfare" to prepare for further attacks on Vietnam.
Philippine media "Daily Inquirer" reported on January 23 that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will visit Hanoi, Vietnam, next week, and he plans to sign a maritime cooperation agreement with Vietnam to establish a united front with Vietnam on the South China Sea dispute issue and jointly confront China.
This is Marcos Jr.'s first foreign trip in the new year, and the use of such a significant first visit to strengthen maritime cooperation links shows that the Philippines is very eager to win over Vietnam, change the voice of the peaceful settlement of the South China Sea issue within ASEAN, and stir up the entire situation in the South China Sea even more so that foreign forces can intervene.
At the same time, the United States has also launched activities to strengthen the U.S.-Vietnam relationship, and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asian Affairs Ford said on January 23 at the 2024 U.S.-Vietnam meeting hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, that defense cooperation between the United States and Vietnam is growing and maturing, but this is only one part of the growing bilateral relationship, and the real relationship between the two countries is "much better than that."
Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son also participated in the meeting via video link, and he praised the United States and Vietnam for upgrading their relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, opening up many new opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. At the same time, he also called on the representatives of the two countries attending the meeting to actively exchange ideas and put forward more initiatives to promote bilateral cooperation.
After these superficial pleasantries, Ford pointed out the focus of the meeting, which is cooperation in emerging areas between the United States and Vietnam. The U.S. wants to help Vietnam promote maritime security and cybersecurity programs, and Ford said that the current situation in the Asia-Pacific region is full of challenges, and the U.S. is doing a lot of work to continue to help Vietnam build "maritime domain awareness" and train its sailors to solve some "harassment problems" while addressing the so-called "illegal fishing" problem.
The so-called "promotion of cyber security" and "maritime domain awareness" and "training sailors" are the usual modes of the United States to provoke overseas conflicts, and by allowing some small countries to master strong cyber attack capabilities and maritime combat capabilities, and brainwashing them into thinking that they can seize illegal sovereign interests, they can change the balance of the regional situation in the past and enhance the confidence of the small country in confronting other major powers.
Finally, Germany also wants to strengthen its relations with Vietnam. According to a Reuters report on January 23, German President Steinmeier began his visit to Vietnam on the same day, accompanied by a delegation of German companies composed of top companies in the fields of tunnel boring machines, wind power and industrial supplies.
To put it simply, Germany wants to gradually withdraw from the Chinese market and turn more investment to Vietnam, which is a popular investment strategy in the West in recent years, using Vietnam as an alternative to the Chinese market, hoping that it will become the "next China".
So, under such a diplomatic wheel war by Western countries, will Vietnam change its diplomatic strategy, gradually turn to the West, and become a pawn on the Western anti-China front?
Vietnam is inseparable from China and will not be completely "instigated"
Recently, there have been signs of targeting China in Vietnam. On January 20, Vietnam took the opportunity of the 50th anniversary of the Paracel self-defense counterattack to claim its "sovereignty" over the Paracel and Nansha Islands. At the same time, some people in Vietnam have organized relevant street activities, demanding that the Vietnamese government strengthen its so-called so-called sovereign interests in the South China Sea and constantly incite anti-China sentiment.
In response to this, the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded at a regular press conference on the 24th, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin showed with practical evidence that China was the first to discover, name, develop and operate the Xisha and Nansha Islands, and continued to exercise sovereign jurisdiction over them, and China has always opposed the illegal claims made by relevant countries to China's territory, and will continue to firmly safeguard its sovereignty.
For a time, there seemed to be signs of tension in relations between China and Vietnam, and outside analysts generally believed that this was a harbinger of Vietnam's next intensification of confrontation with China and its claim to China for its sovereign interests in the South China Sea. Some US media have even stirred up claims that China and Vietnam strengthened their "comrade and brotherly" relations through diplomatic visits at the end of last year, but they have been mired in sovereignty disputes at the beginning of this year.
So, will Vietnam intensify its contradictions and disputes with China because of this and gradually fall into the Western camp?
The answer is no, the disputes between China and Vietnam have existed for many years, and a series of cooperation between the two countries has developed under the condition of disputes, and the two countries do not deny that there are differences between them, but they also do not deny the common interests between them, this is a highly rational diplomatic relationship, and it is difficult for Sino-Vietnamese relations to collapse because of these differences.
At the same time, Vietnam also needs to maintain its own "bamboo diplomacy" strategy, which, according to Vietnam's official explanation, is to be as good as bamboo swinging in the wind, flexible and constant. If we want to maintain this state of affairs, we must develop friendly relations with many major powers, ensure that we can find a balance between them, and mediate among them to create the greatest diplomatic benefits. This determines that Vietnam will keep its contradictions with China, but will not allow this contradiction to erupt completely, triggering a conflict between China and Vietnam, forcing Vietnam to choose sides and turn to the United States.
At present, Vietnam's development is also inseparable from China, and in recent years, Vietnam's economic development and rapid growth of export quota are closely related to China. In essence, Vietnam imports raw materials and primary products from China for processing and then exporting, directly cutting off ties with China, which will lead to the loss of stable and affordable raw material suppliers for Vietnam, and bring a heavy blow to Vietnam's own economic development.
In addition, Vietnam is now hoping to obtain China's infrastructure assistance to further expand Vietnam's domestic transportation capacity and help Vietnam further accelerate its economic development, which requires Vietnam to maintain a relatively stable relationship with China for a long time.
Of course, there are risks in playing a balancing act between the big powers, and if some big countries deliberately want to pull the small countries into the water, it will be difficult for the small countries to resist even if they are restrained by other big countries, especially since there are still contradictions and disputes between China and Vietnam. In the future, while maintaining cooperation with Vietnam, we must also maintain vigilance against Vietnam, so as to prevent the situation of Vietnam turning to the United States really happens.
The Indian army is in the Maldives, which is harmful to India itself
In addition to the Southeast Asian direction, there is also a recent issue in the South Asian direction that deserves our attention, that is, the Maldives has asked India to withdraw its troops.
In September last year, after the new Maldivian President Muiz took office, he completely changed the pro-India policy of the previous President Saleh, advocated the priority of the Maldives, promoted the sense of national sovereignty and independence of the Maldives, and sought to curb India's influence in the Maldives.
Previously, India had a force of about 80 troops stationed in the country in order to control the Maldives, and Moiz had always hoped that India would withdraw this force and maintain the sovereignty and integrity of the Maldives. At the beginning of the year, he gave a deadline for India to withdraw all military personnel in the Maldives by March 15.
March 15 is getting closer, but the Indian side has not been able to give permission. Indian Navy Chief of Staff Kumar said in an interview with CNN on January 25 that he was still waiting for instructions and that New Delhi had not really signaled any withdrawal to the navy so far.
Combined with the strong pressure on the Maldives by the Modi government, it seems that India intends to rely on the Maldives to delay the deadline by not taking a position or withdrawing troops at the last minute when the deadline arrives, so as to maintain its military presence in the Indian Ocean to the maximum.
This is in line with India's consistent expansionist strategy in South Asia, which is very useful for some weak small countries, as long as India exerts strong pressure until the last moment, most small South Asian countries will choose to give in because they can't withstand India's pressure, which makes India the sovereign country with the largest territorial expansion after World War II, and the only sovereign state that annexes other sovereign countries by force.
But here in the Maldives, India may have some problems. In order to resist the strong pressure from India, Maldivian President Muiz has adopted a foreign policy of mediation between major powers, and he has actively carried out cooperation with major powers outside the region, and visited China at the beginning of the year to seek to strengthen Sino-Maldivian relations.
In an interview after returning home, he also stated that he was not pro-China, but pro-Maldives. All his actions are based on the national interests of the Maldives, as a small country, the Maldives cannot get involved in the geopolitical competition between the major powers, and will cooperate with all countries, including China and India.
The Maldives has made clear its position of balancing and mediating among major powers, and if India wants to exert continuous pressure or take direct action against the Maldives, it will inevitably bear the corresponding risks and costs, and the Indian military has been relying on the Maldives, which will only increase the international pressure it faces, and will not help India truly control the Indian Ocean.
As for the Maldives, India cannot continue to use the same methods as it used to deal with small neighboring countries, but must give more consideration to the stakes, otherwise India's dream of becoming a great power may fall on the small country of the Maldives.
Argentina is on strike, and Milley needs to leave a way back for himself
According to the Associated Press, on January 24, local time, on the 46th day of Argentine President Milley's assumption of office, Argentina ushered in a 12-hour nationwide strike. It was the fastest strike in Argentina's presidential presidency since democracy was consolidated in 1983, and the country's first nationwide strike since 2019.
According to the statistics of left-wing organizations, more than 1.5 million workers took part in the strike, and the entire country's transportation, banks, hospitals and public services were severely affected. Some demonstrators held signs that read "The Motherland Is Not to Be Betrayed" to oppose a series of radical reforms to labor and the economy that Milley had put forward since he took office.
However, this did not change Milley's confidence in continuing reforms, and in an interview with Argentine right-wing media on the evening of the 24th, he declared that the strike had political characteristics and had nothing to do with legitimate claims.
This shows that Milley did not take the massive strike protests seriously at all, and it is likely that he will continue his shock therapy in the future, trying to solve Argentina's economic woes in an ultra-liberal way.
In fact, Milley's mentality is also easy to understand, because in the general understanding of economics, shock therapy is originally to use coercive means to bridge the gap between social consumption demand and insufficient supply. It may take 1 to 2 years for the whole country to get through this difficult period due to the intensification of domestic contradictions, and then, with the gradual symmetry of supply and demand, the social economy will return to normal, and inflation will be effectively suppressed.
In the Chilean miracle of 1975 and the Bolivian 1985 programme, where shock therapy was successfully used, this is how shock therapy worked, so Milley believes that the current situation in Argentine society is just a normal phenomenon in the early days of shock therapy, and that everything will change for the better when the "invisible hand" of the market starts working.
But the problem is that there are positive cases of shock therapy, as well as the classic negative case of Russia, if in the process, Milley is not able to get enough dollar support, and his privatization is not turned to social production, but is embezzled by oligarchs, then it is easy to cause the country to fail to match supply and demand after the overall economic downturn, and there will be a total economic collapse.
Now in the midst of Argentina's chaotic economic data, no one knows which direction Argentina will take, and no one can ensure the success of Milley's government reforms, and it is easy to get away with the risk of completely ignoring the voices of society.
Milley could carry out a large-scale social experiment in Argentina according to his own theory, but he could not ignore the needs of the Argentine people, he had to at least insure himself and listen to the opinions of the people. Otherwise, when Argentine society collapses again, Milley will step down.