Mongolia took the initiative to talk to China and Russia about cooperation, and did not become a strategic tool of the United States, so the final choice was also the only choice? Before Marcos Jr.'s visit, Vietnam made a challenge to China, and it was the United States plotting behind it? India is not rich enough to copy the Chinese model, but wants to surpass the United States?
Mongolia took the initiative to talk to China and Russia and make the final choice?
Seeing that the relationship between China and Russia is getting better and better, Mongolia has taken the initiative to talk about cooperation between the two countries and wants to integrate into the Sino-Russian economic circle, which can be said to be well understood.
According to the South China Morning Post on January 24, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden said in an interview with the media that Mongolia intends to hold a summit with China and Russia to seek to strengthen cooperation with its only two neighbors, and if China, Russia and Mongolia can come together, it can speed up the construction of new railway connections and economic corridors, which is conducive to Mongolia's integration into China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
It is very gratifying that Mongolia has taken the initiative to talk to China and Russia, because Mongolia has always been one of the key targets of the US Government's diplomatic offensive. The United States has always wanted to form an encirclement to trap China and Russia, and it has ample incentives to sow discord between China and Russia, so the Biden administration attaches great importance to Mongolia's geopolitical role, and this small landlocked country can not only improve the American encirclement network, but also drive a nail between China and Russia. In addition, in August 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden also visited the United States, at that time he expressed his intention to deepen cooperation with the United States in rare earth mining, and rare earths have always been China's dominant industry.
But now, Mongolia is actively seeking cooperation with China and Russia, and to some extent, this is the choice that Mongolia has made, refusing to become a strategic tool of the United States, but instead moving closer to China and Russia.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Mongolia has found that the relationship between China and Russia has become better and better, and this friendship is not speculative, but strategic, and in the foreseeable future, the situation of Sino-Russian friendship will not change.
Although Mongolia has been engaged in the so-called "third neighbor diplomacy", the United States, France and other Western powers have been called the third neighbor by Mongolia, but that is only a political concept, has no geographical significance, if Mongolia really intends to join the Western camp and confront the two neighbors of China and Russia, they will eventually find that without the permission of China and Russia, Mongolia can not even communicate with any other country.
Moreover, Mongolia has no other ambitions, it just wants to do a good job in the economy, but in this regard, the West can not help much, only by moving closer to China, Mongolia's economy will have a future. Therefore, even if Mongolia once intended to take advantage of the United States, now that it can take the initiative to show goodwill to China and Russia, it can be regarded as having seen the world situation clearly and made the right choice.
Of course, international relations are not monogamous, and it does not mean that Mongolia cannot interact with the West after deepening cooperation with China or Russia, and Mongolia can still develop more third neighbors, but there is one point, Mongolia must be careful not to be exploited because of its special geographical location, otherwise, the geographical particularity will also be accompanied by corresponding fatality.
Marcos Jr. is visiting Vietnam, and the United States is also making overtures
If Mongolia has finally figured it out, then the Philippines' move on the South China Sea issue is completely a dead end, and it has never been able to take advantage of China, but it is still not giving up, and is still stalking and trying to win over more countries to confront China. And this time, the country that Marcos Jr. looks at is also an old friend of China, a regional power that cannot be underestimated in the Indochina Peninsula, Vietnam.
According to French media reports on January 23, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is expected to visit Vietnam next week, and the two countries will sign a maritime agreement to strengthen coordination and cooperation between the coast guards of the two countries to protect the common interests of the two countries in Southeast Asia.
The Philippines and Vietnam, both of which have one thing in common, are both claimants to disputes in the South China Sea, and now the two countries are stepping up maritime cooperation to compete for so-called common interests, no doubt trying to form factions in the South China Sea to occupy China's islands and reefs. Originally, China and ASEAN countries have long had a mature cooperation plan for resolving disputes in the South China Sea, that is, the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, but the Philippines has always wanted to set aside China and win over other ASEAN countries to establish another set of rules in the South China Sea.
In addition to the Philippines, the United States is also making overtures to Vietnam. According to US media reports, on January 23, Lindsey Ford, assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asian affairs at the US Department of Defense, said that military cooperation between the United States and Vietnam is maturing, but this is only one part of the growing bilateral relationship, and the US-Vietnam relationship is much larger than defense cooperation or about China.
The United States' remarks are quite beautiful and speak to Vietnam's heart. You must know that the United States is the world's largest economic, political, and military power, and other small countries certainly want to increase cooperation with the United States, and the same is true for Vietnam, but the only concern is that those small countries are afraid of being used by the United States, after all, the United States has a bad track record of hegemony and a bad reputation, and Southeast Asia has always had a very bad historical impression of the United States, so trust has always been a major obstacle for the United States to build alliances in Southeast Asia. Now, by redefining the U.S.-Vietnam relationship, U.S. Department of Defense officials are fighting for trust, in other words, the U.S. is trying to make Vietnam obedient.
The fact that the Philippines and the United States are courting Vietnam at the same time is enough to see that the US-Philippine military alliance has taken a fancy to Vietnam's strategic value. There are many powerful countries in East Asia, and Vietnam is one of the forces to be reckoned with, and if the United States wants to find a war proxy to consume China, Vietnam is the most suitable choice. Moreover, Vietnam is located in the hinterland of the Indochina Peninsula and is China's hub for connecting Southeast Asia, and in a geographical sense, if the United States succeeds in wooing Vietnam, it will be like inserting a knife between China and Southeast Asia, which is extremely harmful.
There is a high probability that the United States and the Philippines will succeed in wooing Vietnam. Although Vietnam is one of the few communist countries in the world and has a comrade-brother relationship with China, the United States has been able to support anti-China forces in Vietnam and shape the unfavorable public opinion environment for China because of the fierce military conflicts that have erupted between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea dispute. Moreover, although Vietnam is not a big country, its ambitions are not small, and in the context of the confrontation between China and the United States, Vietnam also intends to take advantage of the United States to complete the further take-off of its national strength.
Vietnam is attacking China, and the real enemy is the United States?
Under the impetus of the United States and the Philippines, Vietnam has begun to attack China, and China-Vietnam relations have ushered in a new test, however, the United States still has a long way to go to fully integrate Vietnam into the Indo-Pacific strategy to suppress China.
On January 20, Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Thanh said that China was responsible for the 1974 conflict between China and Vietnam over the Paracel Islands that killed 75 Vietnamese soldiers 50 years ago, according to Vietnamese media reports. In addition, she claimed that China's Paracel and Spratly Islands should belong to Vietnam.
China is not accustomed to Vietnam's sudden and brutal entanglement, and has given a tough answer. On January 24, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin held a regular press conference to respond to Vietnam's relevant remarks and claims, saying that the fact that the Xisha and Nansha Islands are both Chinese territory has a full historical and legal basis, and that China has always opposed other countries' illegal claims to China's territory and will continue to firmly safeguard its sovereignty.
Vietnam's sudden attack on China and its idea of China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea are obviously bewitched by the United States, the Philippines and other forces, otherwise, with the current high degree of Sino-Vietnamese cooperation, Vietnam is unlikely to make a move that will damage the relations between the two countries.
However, no matter what ecstasy the United States has poured into Vietnam, Vietnam is unlikely to become a strategic tool of the United States in the foreseeable future, mainly for three reasons: First, Vietnam needs China. Since the West has promoted de-sinicization, many international capital has focused on investing in Vietnam, but in fact, Vietnam does not have the ability to become the world's factory, not so much in the replacement of China, but as a supplement to China's industrial chain, if there is no cooperation with China, Vietnam is not even enough power energy, in short, Vietnam's manufacturing industry is highly dependent on China, so they know in their own hearts, it is okay to quarrel with China, and it is not good to really fall out.
Second, if Vietnam moves closer to the United States, Russia will not be happy either. Vietnam follows the communist line, as early as the Soviet Union, it had a close relationship with the original big brother Soviet Union, until now, Vietnam still regards Russia as one of its most important allies in military and political aspects, and Russia has long expressed its position on the South China Sea issue and clearly supports China's position, so if Vietnam wants to go against China, Russia will not approve of it.
Third, Vietnam cannot trust the United States. Compared with the conflict between China and Vietnam in the Paracel Islands, the history that makes the Vietnamese feel more painful is the US-Vietnam War, during the war that lasted for more than ten years, the United States used more explosives on Vietnamese soil than all countries combined during World War II, and the US military also used Agent Orange, mines and other weapons banned by the United Nations, which are still infinitely harmful.
In view of the above three reasons, Lao Mo believes that Vietnam's attack on China is only providing a false impression to the United States and its allies, and since the West sees Vietnam as a potential force to confront China, Vietnam can also use this to get the West to invest more in Vietnam. If the United States places its hopes of confronting China on Vietnam, it is bound to be a great disappointment.
India's gold content is insufficient, and national culture determines the fate of the country?
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's rise has been the world's greatest opportunity, and China has also been hailed as the engine of the world economy, but now, the West is jealous of China's development, wants to suppress China, and has begun to constantly look for a spare tire to replace China, and India has assumed this role, often boasting as the next China. However, India's performance is really unsatisfactory, and countries are gradually realizing that India does not have enough gold.
On January 24, the Economic Observer published an article entitled "India's demographic dividend, the gold content is not as good as China?", the article pointed out that although India recently surpassed China to become the world's most populous country, and the population structure is healthy, the young labor force is sufficient, but it is difficult for India to transform the huge population into development advantages, India's manufacturing industry 20 years ago in the economic structure of the proportion of 17%, now it has fallen to 13%, ahead of the road to deindustrialization, therefore, India will not be able to copy China's economic take-off.
As the article says, the biggest problem for India is that it cannot turn its population into a development dividend. The key to China's success at the beginning is that as early as the seventies of the last century, China carried out educational reforms, and the cultural literacy campaign achieved great success, so that the quantity and quality of China's labor force were in the world's first-class echelon, so that it became the world's factory. India's lack of attention to civilian education, not to mention gender discrimination, caste system, and other issues have prevented India from modernizing.
It is not China that sings down India, even the United States, Australia and other Western countries are gradually waking up and realizing that India will not be the next China. On January 17, Australian media published an article titled "Can India Replace China as the New Engine of the Global Economy?", which said that while India has all the ingredients that once propelled China to become the world's second-largest economy, even that cannot become the next economic engine of global growth.
Even the American media, which no longer boasted about India, began to recognize the reality. On January 19, the Wall Street Journal of the United States published an article entitled "Why India Can't Become the Next China?", which argues that India has problems such as low labor employment rate, trade barriers, high public debt, and declining foreign investment, and it is difficult to replicate China's take-off in the past.
In fact, China's success is an inevitability, and the ecological niche of a nation in the world is determined by culture and spirit. While the West expects India to surpass China in a few decades, India believes that it has already surpassed China and that its goal now should be to surpass the United States.