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As the India-Sri Lankan navies chart a trajectory of cooperation in the waves, a question naturally arises: How much of a wave could such an alliance make?
In the tide of the great power game, how will these two neighboring countries manage their own destiny?
The joint formation at sea is not only a military coordination, but also covers political signals, economic linkages, and future strategic layouts.
As Sri Lanka tries to find a balance between the two great powers, will its choice be a bellwether in the Indian Ocean?
1. Independence or the extension of Indian influence?
Sri Lanka's marine research capabilities have long been a source of pride for the island nation, but when it rejected a Chinese research vessel, the decision seemed to tell the world: "We can do it ourselves." ”
However, it is puzzling whether this decision is really the result of Sri Lanka's independence or the "quiet influence" of India, a big brother-level neighbor.
India, Sri Lanka's northern neighbor, certainly doesn't want to see China's influence expand in its own backyard.
India's regional political strategy seems to have found a springboard in Sri Lanka's decision-making, making the small South Asian nation a pawn or referee in the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean.
Will Sri Lanka be able to maintain its independence, or does it really want independence, when India is behind the chessboard?
Of course, the impact of this decision on China-Sri Lanka relations is self-evident. China may feel this as a betrayal, given that Chinese investment and influence in Sri Lanka have been evident over the past few years.
But the decision, perhaps, is a dangerous balancing act by Sri Lanka trying to find its own footing between the two Asian powers.
Such a tug-of-war could bring new turmoil to the region, and other countries may begin to reassess their plans for scientific research and ocean activities in the Indian Ocean when they see it.
Now, Sri Lanka seems to be trying to draw its own map of the ocean, but is it ready for the ripple effects that could ensue?
On the big stage of international politics, every country wants to have a place, but whether this place is "comfortable to sit on" is another question.
Sri Lanka's decision undoubtedly gives it a chance, but it can also be a cheque that needs to be filled out carefully.
2. Sri Lanka's new military posture
When the Sri Lankan Navy announced that its fleet would sail for a mission in the Red Sea, the decision came as a surprise. After all, Sri Lanka is not a military power in the traditional sense, and its move seems somewhat abrupt.
First and foremost are domestic economic considerations. Sri Lanka's economic situation has been difficult in recent years, with GDP growth slowing significantly in 2023 and foreign exchange reserves struggling.
Against this backdrop of financial constraints, there is an argument that Sri Lanka's trip may be aimed at opening up new avenues for economic cooperation, or in anticipation of a military presence to enhance its international bargaining power.
However, in addition to economic drivers, Sri Lanka's rhetoric of "global responsibility" should not be ignored.
While this may sound idealistic in the complex context of realpolitik, Sri Lanka may be seeking to build its international profile in order to gain more strategic space and voice.
Behind this decision, the shadow of the United States is also difficult to ignore. The Red Sea region is strategically important for the United States, and Sri Lanka's action could be seen as supporting, or at least compatible, U.S. interests in the region.
This tacit cooperation seems to suggest that Sri Lanka is trying to find its footing in the great power game, which is reminiscent of whether Sri Lanka's decision means that its role on the international stage is changing.
This move is undoubtedly a shock to the security landscape of the Indo-Pacific region.
Sri Lanka's new military posture could upset the existing balance, especially for India, and this abrupt change will undoubtedly require close attention.
India may feel a strategic unease: is this Sri Lankan act alone, or is it a joint action on the international chessboard?
Whether Sri Lanka's military power is really capable of carrying out such a Red Sea mission, and whether this display of power will provoke unrest and confrontation among other countries.
In this context, Sri Lanka's diplomatic strategy must be as delicate as possible to ensure that it does not lose its way in the rolling tide of international relations.
3. The strength and challenges of the Sri Lankan Navy
The Sri Lankan Navy, the armed force that played a key role in the civil war years, is now making its way to the international stage, trying to take on a new role in the waves of the Red Sea.
In the decision announced in 2023, the Sri Lankan Navy announced that it would send a fleet to the Red Sea for escort missions, the first ocean-going operation in its history.
However, public information on the organization's capabilities and resources shows that its strength is limited, with a total of less than 100 ships, most of which are small patrol ships, and not many main warships.
Against this background, this decision of the Sri Lankan Navy is undoubtedly a bold jump.
Although its escort mission has won some applause from the international community, the pressure of military modernization and the balancing act of the defense budget behind it are like walking a tightrope that could become a laughing stock if not careful.
In the face of tight finances, the Sri Lankan government must find a delicate balance between upgrading its navy and maintaining other defense spending.
While participating in the Red Sea escort, the Sri Lankan Navy had to face a series of challenges.
The first is the limitations of technology and equipment, and despite some international technical assistance, the gap is still significant compared to the navies of other countries.
In addition, long-term domestic economic difficulties and political turmoil have also hindered military modernization, leading to uncertainty in budget allocations.
Under such conditions, the Sri Lankan Navy's ocean-going escort capability has become a matter of general concern to the outside world.
If there is any discrepancy in the escort operation, it is not only a military issue, but may also be transformed into a political bargaining chip.
At the same time, this move by the Sri Lankan Navy also reflects a shift in its military-diplomatic strategy.
The escort operation is not only a test of the navy's capabilities, but also an attempt at international cooperation, with the intention of enhancing its international status through exchanges and cooperation with the navies of other countries.
Is this a brave attempt by the Sri Lankan Navy to improve itself, or is it a desperate attempt to survive on the international stage?
How will the Sri Lankan Navy navigate the delicate line of international cooperation and independence in escort missions?
All eyes are on the Indian Ocean island nation's navy, waiting for the answer.
In this maritime chess game, whether every step is steady or not will directly affect Sri Lanka's position and influence in international relations.
4. Joint India-Sri Lanka formation
As the geopolitical temperature of the Indian Ocean rises, Sri Lanka appears to be particularly active in naval cooperation with India.
And India, a neighbor with far-reaching influence in Sri Lanka, also appears to be looking for opportunities to strengthen its military ties.
Against this backdrop, it is expected that future naval cooperation between Sri Lanka and India will include multiple dimensions such as joint training, exercises and patrols.
The Sri Lankan Navy currently has fewer than 100 ships, with few capital warships, while the Indian Navy has advanced weapons platforms, including aircraft carriers.
In this mode of cooperation of "small sampans and big warships", Sri Lanka's naval strength will undoubtedly be improved to a certain extent.
For India, this kind of cooperation is more than just teaching its neighbors how to fight water fights.
By partnering with Sri Lanka's navy, India is expected to increase its influence in South Asia, while also contributing to its maritime strategy in the region.
In recent years, India has been pushing its so-called "Indo-Pacific" strategy, trying to expand its naval power from the west to the east of the Indian Ocean, and Sri Lanka's geographical location is crucial to this.
However, such cooperation may make China feel a little tight on its head, after all, China's Maritime Silk Road initiative in the region is a big move.
China's growing naval footprint in the Indian Ocean region, including its investment in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port, has caused quite a stir in India.
Therefore, India-Sri Lanka naval cooperation cannot help but be seen as a counterweight to China's influence.
In this maritime version of "hide and seek" of the great powers, the role of the Sri Lankan Navy has become increasingly complex.
On the one hand, it needs to balance its partnership with India to strengthen its own defense capabilities, and on the other hand, it has to be careful not to hurt the other side's strategic sensitivities.
The combined formation of the Sri Lankan Navy and India may become a force to be reckoned with in the Indian Ocean region in the future.
But the formation of such a force does not happen overnight, and it requires a great deal of time and energy from both sides to invest in strategic interests, political trust, and military coordination.
This dance of transnational maritime cooperation requires both choreographed steps and constant rhythm adjustment in practice.
For Sri Lanka, its naval strength is not comparable to that of India, but through such cooperation, Sri Lanka can not only improve its own defense capabilities, but also gain more bargaining chips on the chessboard of international relations.
Under this cooperation, Sri Lanka may learn from the advanced technology and tactics of the Indian Navy, which is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the modernization of its navy.
At the same time, India can use this cooperation to extend its strategic influence to Sri Lanka and beyond.
The joint patrols and exercises between the two sides will serve as a check on neighboring countries, especially China's presence in the Indian Ocean.
However, this collaboration is not without its challenges. China is likely to use economic means, such as more investment and aid, to reduce Sri Lanka's dependence and try to weaken the momentum for India-Sri Lanka cooperation.
At the same time, there may be concerns within Sri Lanka about working too closely with India, fearing that it could undermine its national sovereignty or provoke China's resentment.
Epilogue:
On the whole, the naval cooperation between India and Sri Lanka is not only a deepening of military cooperation between the two countries, but also a reflection of the complex and ever-changing political landscape in South Asia.
As cooperation deepens, this will not only affect China-Sri Lanka relations, but may also further reshape the strategic balance of the entire Indian Ocean region.
In this ancient body of the Indian Ocean, the waves of the future are heralding even more intense sea wrestling.
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