The Philippines has been moving frequently in recent days, and on the 20th, Philippine Secretary of National Security Edward issued a statement saying that the current Marcos Jr. government does not know any secret or gentlemanly agreements, even if the previous Duterte administration did such a thing, but the current agreement has been abolished, so it is not binding on the Philippine government.
(Pictured is Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.)
The secret agreement mentioned by the Philippines is actually a "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue. According to the mainland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the general contents of the agreement include: 1. The two sides agreed to properly handle the issue of the beached warship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the Philippines promised to tow the wrecked ship away. Second, China has allowed the Philippines to provide some necessary supplies to Filipino personnel illegally stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. However, each replenishment needs to be notified to the Chinese side in advance and subject to the supervision of the Chinese coast guard vessel. Third, the Philippines will not be allowed to take any action to reinforce beached warships.
(The picture shows a screenshot of the Philippine announcement)
Through the content of the agreement, we can also understand why China has strongly obstructed the Philippines' illegal transportation and replenishment, and the means to respond to the Philippine provocation have become tougher. Essentially, the Philippines is obstinately pursuing its own course in the South China Sea because it does not abide by the gentlemen's agreement reached between the two countries. Judging from the recent statements of the Philippines, the Marcos Jr. administration may be aware of the existence of this agreement, but even so it is still unwilling to abide by the content of the agreement. This reflects two realities: the lack of continuity in the Philippine government's foreign policy, and the persistence of Philippine provocations in the South China Sea.
(The picture shows a broken ship illegally beached by the Philippines on Ren'ai Jiao)
In addition, there are several things worth paying attention to, the first is that the Philippines announced on the 22nd that it will carry out hydrographic surveys in the waters east of Thitu Island in the South China Sea. It is important to know that Thitu Island is located almost in the center of the South China Sea, and the waters east of it are almost half of the South China Sea area, which is a serious provocation to China's sovereignty. And like other islands and reefs in the South China Sea actually controlled by the Philippines, Thitu Island itself was illegally occupied by the Philippines by rogue means. Not only have military facilities been deployed on the island, but even fishermen have been relocated to reinforce the Philippines' illegal claims.
The second thing is that the Philippines is absent from the Western Pacific Naval Forum hosted by China for no reason, according to the Chinese side, China has previously sent invitations to dozens of countries, including the Philippines, but the Philippines has somehow been absent. You must know that even the United States, the "master" of the Marcos Jr. administration, sent the commander of the Pacific Fleet to the meeting. Other participants included Australia, India, France, and South Korea, which are more in line with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The masters of the Philippines have all given face, so what qualifications does the Philippines have to "put on a show"? This move is obviously aimed at cooperating with the Philippines' propaganda to the outside world and exaggerating the Chinese threat.
(The picture shows the commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet speaking at the naval forum)
The third thing is the military interaction between the Philippines and the United States. Recently, the Philippines and the United States held side-by-shoulder military exercises, which have expanded in scale compared to the previous ones. In addition, the locations of the military exercises were also set up in the western and northern waters, which were obviously aimed at the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. What is even more odious is that the Philippines actually uses a Chinese-made ship as a target ship to shoot, which is a naked deterrent to China. In addition, the Philippines wants the United States to deploy intermediate-range missiles on its own territory, which also poses a more serious threat to China. Therefore, it is necessary for China to take tough action and "hit back" the Philippines.
The fourth thing is that the chief of staff of the Philippine military, Brawner, said that the Philippines is concerned about the "influx" of Chinese citizens into different parts of the Philippines. And he has urged the Philippine authorities to monitor the entry of Chinese citizens, and the reason given is not far-fetched, that is, the Philippine side believes that there may be Chinese "agents" among these people. The Philippines' move is clearly to learn from the United States in playing up the China threat in order to increase public support for the Philippines' unfriendly policies toward China. However, this move may set off an anti-China wave in the Philippines, which is worthy of the vigilance of Chinese compatriots living in the Philippines.
(The picture shows the image of the Chinese coast guard ship driving away the Philippine ship before)
For now, it seems that the Philippines will tear up the gentlemen's agreement with China and, with the support of the United States, insist on going its own way in the South China Sea. I am afraid that China's verbal exhortations and warnings will hardly be useful. Therefore, in order to curb the provocative behavior of the Philippines, China may take more substantive actions in the future. For example, the Philippines will take a tougher drive away ships that illegally intrude on China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Or first take the broken ship of the Philippines on Ren'ai Jiao and forcibly tow it away. Since the Philippines fears coercion rather than morality, China has no choice but to take tougher measures to deal with it. The conditions for dealing with the Chinese side in the Philippines are sufficient in all aspects, and the finale of the illegal beached warship may be about to be staged.