The price has dived, and is the freedom of the cherries just like that?

Don't get too happy

文 | 《财经》实习生 王莘莘 罗艾敏

Edit | Yu Le

At 6 p.m. on January 10, the imported fruit trading area of Beijing's Xinfadi Wholesale Market was gradually returning to silence, completing a day's sales, and merchants were planning to close their stores. At the entrance of the market, there are several conspicuous signs that read "Cherry Direct Sales".

We randomly visited a few stores and learned that the price of Chilean cherries has been decreasing for the past month. "The 3J-grade Santina is the best-seller, but last month, a box of 2.5 kilograms could be sold for four or five hundred yuan, and now it can only be sold for more than two hundred. ”

In online channels, the price of cherries has also dropped significantly: on the Hema App, all categories of cherries are displayed as "the lowest price in 14 days", and on Xiaohongshu, the keyword search for "cherry price reduction" is full of merchants doing group buying, and there is even a price of 99 yuan and 5 catties. A boss from the Jiangnan Fruit Market in Guangzhou bluntly said: "It's more than this price to get the goods."

However, don't think that "Cheerilee Freedom" has been achieved since then.

A number of industry insiders told us that the current low price is only a temporary phenomenon, and the price of cherries will rise as the Spring Festival approaches.

Why did the price of cherries drop in price

Thanks to its subtropical Mediterranean climate with rainy winters and dry summers, and volcanic ash soils, Chile is ideally placed to grow cherries. Moreover, because Chile is located in the southern hemisphere, its cherries are marketed in China from November to January every year, just in time for Christmas, New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other festivals, forming a "staggered peak" with other cherry exporting countries such as the United States and New Zealand.

"Now Cheerilee in Chile is the dollar on the tree, the bank on the move. Liu Xiang, marketing manager of Chilean fruit supplier Prize, mentioned in a previous interview with us. Thanks to strong demand from China, the total area under cherry cultivation in Chile has increased 3.7-fold in the last decade to 49,000 hectares. Nearly 90% of Chile's cherries are sold to China.

For this price reduction, most merchants explained that it was due to the recent arrival of a large number of sea cherries at the port. Judging from the statistics of Xinfadi, on December 31, 2023, the average selling price of imported cherries in Chile was 60 yuan per catty. Compared with the average price of 165 yuan per catty on October 31, 2023, the price has decreased by 105 yuan.

In fact, the price reduction of cherries is nothing new, and every year around the New Year, Chilean cherries will experience such a "suffering".

According to the statistics of Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market, the average selling price of cherries imported from Chile on December 31, 2022 and 2021 was 42 yuan and 52 yuan per catty, respectively, which was even lower than the same period in 2023. This is mainly due to changes in the relationship between supply and demand.

Chilean cherries sold in supermarkets

Photo: Wang Xinxin

In December 2023, Chilean cherries arrived by sea in early varieties, mainly Santina and Royal dawn, but the arrivals were much smaller than in previous periods. This is mainly due to the reduction in cherry production in Chile due to the El Niño phenomenon. Two rains in early November had a greater impact on the early varieties Santina and Royal Dawn, reducing yields by more than half. In this way, the price of cherries in November-December was pushed to a high level.

Before New Year's Day, Rabins went public. This variety of cherries was not affected by the previous rainy season. A large number of cherries entered the country by sea cargo ships, and the price began to fall.

We learned that the cherries that are being reduced this time are mainly the Santina variety. A fruit wholesaler in Xinfadi, Beijing, told us that this variety had a good reputation before, but this year, due to the impact of the climate, the quality is not as good as in previous years. Now that it is the end of the season of Santina, many sellers have not sold out of their goods, and the inventory is very high, so when the goods from the sea were opened in early January, the second- and third-tier sellers did not take over.

In this industry, all channels and dealers have shipping schedules, and they know when a large number of cherry ships will arrive. For sellers in second- and third-tier cities, their price reduction and inventory clearance are also forcing dealers in the first-tier wholesale market to reduce prices. Wait for them to sell the goods at a discount, and then wait for the "big goods" from the sea to open the cabinet in January, and buy a batch of goods with lower costs, hoping to make back the previous losses.

"The ship is coming, but the money is harder to earn. Ms. Zhang, who has been engaged in fruit wholesale in Guangxi for seven years, said bluntly. "When the first batch of sea cherries arrived, the price of air cherries had not been affected, because the good goods were limited, and the expensive ones were still expensive. But now all cherries are reducing their prices, and the price reduction is about 30-50 yuan a catty. The drastic price changes have made many small dealers start to wait and see, "I don't dare to buy more, our old customers ask me for less than half of last year's cherries this year." In Ms. Zhang's view, the price of cherries will have to come down in the next 15 days.

The price reduction is coming, will the price increase be far away?

In China, the source that determines the price of cherries is the arrival of goods by sea.

Unlike Australia, New Zealand and other air-freighted cherries, more than 90% of Chilean cherries are transported to major ports by sea, which greatly reduces transportation costs. The air freight time of imported cherries is about 3-5 days, and the freight cost of one piece (5KG) is between 230-270 yuan, and the shipping time is 23-27 days, but one piece is only 17-25 yuan. An airplane can carry up to 80 tons of cherries, while a ship can carry up to 18,000 tons. At present, sea transportation uses new technology fresh-keeping packaging, which basically ensures that cherries can be kept fresh for more than 45 days in a storage environment of -1°C to 1°C.

A photo of Liu Xiang when he opened the cabinet

Photo courtesy of the interviewee

The Chilean Cherry Committee of the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association has issued the "Quality Guidelines for Exported Cherries", which establishes a uniform specification range for the diameter of cherries, which are divided into L, XL, J, 2J, 3J and 4J grades in order from smallest to largest. Since December 2021, L-grade Chilean cherries have no longer been sold to the Chinese market, and consumers mainly buy 2J and 3J grades in fruit stores and e-commerce platforms.

Liu Xiang told us that the proportion of specifications supplied to China actually varies from year to year, mainly depending on the growth of the fruit on the tree. "If there is a lot of rain this year, many small fruits will be knocked out after the rain and during the ventilation of the orchard in the later stage, but there are more 3J large fruits, and there are more double J and single J in the past. ”

The shipping schedule of the shipping company is fixed, so no matter the quality of the fruit, it will be shipped to China, so after the sea cargo ship docks, opening the container to see the goods has become an important part of the first-line wholesalers and channel merchants to fight prices. Open cabinet is a jargon, sea cherries in the primary wholesale market when the cabinet is opened and sold has a price range, the industry usually uses this open cabinet price to refer to the market price.

On January 10, Liu Xiang was busy opening the wholesale market when the first wave of large ships arrived in Guangzhou, with several Chilean exporters' cherries on one ship.

According to Liu Xiang, in previous years, the price was also at a low level at this time, but when it came to the pre-sale and promotional activities of the previous year, the price of dealers would gradually stabilize and would not continue to fall. At this stage, in order to warm up and attract customer flow, many channel providers will first reduce the price and lose a wave, but when the price increases during the New Year, they can make a profit. In the video of Douyin blogger "Brother Yu in Nanjing City", a voice said that "domestic fruits (market) have been raised for a year, and the leeks should be cut".

"Brother Yu in Nanjing" told us that if the production and sales of cherries are booming in the next week, and e-commerce companies are hoarding, then the market price will be raised before the end of January.

Editor-in-charge | Xiao Zhenyu

题图 | Unsplash

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