價格跳水，車厘子自由就這樣實作了嗎？

别高興得太早

文 | 《财經》實習生 王莘莘 羅艾敏

編輯 | 餘樂

1月10日下午6點，北京新發地批發市場進口水果交易區正逐漸恢複寂靜，完成了一天的銷售，商戶們正打算閉店。市場入口處，立着幾個顯眼的“車厘子直銷”标志牌。

我們随機走訪幾家店面後了解到，近一個月來智利車厘子價格不斷降低。“3J級的桑提娜是最暢銷的，但上個月2.5公斤一盒的還能賣到四五百元，現在隻能賣到兩百多。”

線上上管道，車厘子的售價也有明顯下降：盒馬App上，所有品類車厘子均顯示為“14天最低價”；在小紅書上以“車厘子降價”為關鍵詞搜尋，全是商家在做團購，甚至還出現了99元5斤的價格。來自廣州江南水果市場的一位老闆直言：“拿貨都不止這個價啦”。

不過，千萬别以為“車厘子自由”就從此實作了。

多位業内人士告訴我們，目前的低價隻是暫時現象，車厘子的價格臨近春節時就會回升。

車厘子為何降價

得益于冬季多雨、夏季幹燥的亞熱帶地中海氣候和火山灰土壤，智利種植車厘子有着得天獨厚的地理優勢。而且，由于智利位于南半球，其車厘子每年11月至次年1月在中國反季上市，剛好趕上聖誕、元旦、春節等節日，與美國、紐西蘭等其他車厘子出口國形成了“錯峰”。

“現在車厘子在智利就是樹上的美金、移動的銀行。” 智利水果供應商佰茲果（Prize）中國區市場營運經理劉翔在此前接受我們采訪時提到。由于來自中國的需求旺盛，智利車厘子種植總面積在最近十年增長了3.7倍，達4.9萬公頃。智利出口的車厘子近九成都銷往了中國。

對于此次降價，大部分商家都解釋稱是由于近日港口大量海運車厘子到貨。從新發地的統計資料來看，2023年12月31日，智利進口車厘子平均售價為每斤60元。相較于2023年10月31日平均價每斤165元，價格下降了105元。

實際上，車厘子降價并不是什麼新鮮事，每年新年前後，智利車厘子都會經曆這麼一“遭”。

根據北京新發地批發市場統計資料，2022年、2021年12月31日智利進口車厘子平均售價分别為每斤42、52元，甚至比2023年同期更低。這主要是供需關系的變化所導緻的。

超市中售賣的智利車厘子

攝影：王莘莘

2023年12月，海運到貨的智利車厘子屬于早期品種，主要是桑缇娜和皇家黎明（Royal dawn)這兩種，但到貨的量較往期少了很多。這主要是因為智利受厄爾尼諾現象影響，車厘子減産。11月初的兩場雨對早期品種桑提娜、皇家黎明影響比較大，産量少了超過一半。這樣，11-12月車厘子的價格就被頂上了一個高位。

元旦前，拉賓斯上市。這一品種的車厘子并未受到此前雨季的影響。大量車厘子通過海運貨船進入國内，價格随之開始下降。

我們了解到，此次降價的車厘子主要是桑提娜這一品種。在北京新發地做水果批發的商家告訴我們，這個品種此前口碑不錯，但今年因為受到氣候影響，品質不如往年。現在已經到了桑提娜的尾季，很多賣家的貨沒有賣完，庫存很高，是以1月初海運來的貨開櫃時，二三線的賣家就沒有再接手。

這一行内，各管道和經銷商都掌握有船運表，他們知道大量車厘子貨船的到貨時間。對于二三線城市的賣家來說，他們降價清庫存也是在倒逼一線批發市場的經銷商降價。等他們折價賣完手頭的貨，再等1月海運來的“大貨”開櫃，買一批成本更低的貨，希望藉此把之前的損失賺回來。

“船來了，但錢更難賺了。”在廣西從事水果批發七年的張女士直言。“第一批海運車厘子到的時候，空運車厘子價格還沒有受影響，因為好貨有限，貴的還是貴。但現在是所有車厘子都在降價，降價幅度在30-50元一斤左右。”價格的劇烈變動讓很多小經銷商都開始觀望，“不敢買多了，我們老客戶今年找我拿的車厘子還不到去年的一半。”在張女士看來，接下來的15天裡，車厘子價格還得降。

降價來了，漲價還會遠嗎？

在國内，決定車厘子價格漲跌的源頭，就是海運到貨的情況。

與澳洲、紐西蘭等空運車厘子的産地不同，90%以上的智利櫻桃都是通過海運送至各大港口，大大降低了運輸成本。進口車厘子空運時間在3天-5天左右，一件（5KG）的運費在230-270元之間；海運時間需23天-27天，但一件隻需17-25元。一架飛機最多能運送80噸車厘子，而一艘船最多能運1.8萬噸。現在海運運輸使用的是新技術保鮮包裝，基本上保證車厘子在-1℃到1℃的儲存環境下，能保鮮 45 天以上。

劉翔開櫃時的照片

受訪者供圖

智利水果出口商協會下屬的智利櫻桃委員會釋出的《出口櫻桃品質指南》，制定了統一的車厘子果徑規格區間，按從小到大的順序分為L級、XL級、J級、2J級、3J級和4J級。從2021年12月起，L級的智利車厘子就不再銷往中國市場，消費者們在水果店、電商平台買到的主要是2J、3J級。

劉翔告訴我們，向中國供貨的規格占比其實每年都有差别，主要還是看樹上果子的長勢。“今年雨水多的話，很多小果在雨後和後期果園通風過程中就被打掉了，反而3J大果比較多，以前的話都是雙J和單J比較多。”

船運公司的船期表是固定的，是以無論果子品質大小如何，都會上船運往中國，于是海運貨船靠岸後，開櫃看貨品就成為一線批發商和管道商打價格的重要環節。開櫃是一個行話，海運車厘子在一級批發市場打開櫃子賣時有一個價格區間出來，行内通常用這個開櫃價來指代行情價格。

1月10日這天，劉翔在接受采訪時正忙着批發市場開櫃的工作，當天廣州開始了第一波大船到貨，一艘船上有數個智利出口商的車厘子。

據劉翔所說，往年此時價格也是處于一個較低的水準，但是到了年前的預售、促銷活動時，經銷商的價格就會逐漸穩定下來，不會再繼續下跌。目前這個階段，很多管道商為了預熱吸引客流，都會先降價虧一波，但到了過年漲價，又能賺一筆。在抖音部落客“南京城的魚哥”視訊中，有聲音表示“國産水果（市場）養了一年，韭菜該要割起來了”。

“南京城的魚哥”告訴我們，如果未來一星期内車厘子産銷兩旺、電商出手囤貨的話，那等不到一月底，行情價格就會上調了。

責編 | 肖振宇

題圖 | Unsplash

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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}