The Middle East has recently made waves again, with the Lebanese Allah Party launching a fierce attack on Israel's Mellon air surveillance base, which has attracted widespread attention. There are multiple layers of strategic considerations behind this crisis, and let's dig deeper into the truth of this storm.
First, the three targets proposed by Allah leader Nasrallah seem plausible on the surface, but in fact have deeper strategic motivations. His justifications for putting pressure on the Israeli government, weakening the Israeli army's viability, and avenging Hamas's vice-chairman, Alururi, while reasonable, obscure deeper strategic motives.
Nasrallah didn't fully reveal the truth. In fact, the main purpose of Allah's attack on Israel's Mellon base is to continue to draw Israel into the vortex of war, while maintaining tensions in the Middle East to prevent the United States from withdrawing smoothly. Why? This involves the logic behind Israel's withdrawal.
Israel's announcement of the start of its withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is ostensibly aimed at reducing the intensity of the conflict, but in fact it is aimed at focusing its efforts on other global emergencies, especially support for the situation in Ukraine. With the potential for the United States to retreat from the Middle East, Israel will rely more heavily on its own security forces.
Allah cannot tolerate this. They urgently need to keep the powder keg in the Middle East so that the United States cannot easily withdraw and thus remain involved in regional affairs. Once the Middle East cools down, the United States will be able to fully support Ukraine against Russia.
Thus, Allah's attacks are effectively preventing this from happening. By provoking Israel's retaliatory actions, they are trying to create a large-scale military conflict, forcing Israel and the United States to remain in the Middle East, creating more opportunities for Russia and anti-American forces in the Middle East.
The statements of Israeli Defense Minister Gallant also indicate that, despite the preference for a diplomatic solution, a comprehensive military plan has been developed. This is not only a warning to Allah, but also a response to instability in the Middle East. The Middle East is about to become the global spotlight, and this will undoubtedly become a test for the US government.
And in this tense game, the Biden administration is also preparing for a war in the Middle East. In the face of the onslaught of Allah in Lebanon, the United States has had to remain vigilant in the Middle East to prevent the conflict from expanding and affecting the entire region. All this is to ensure that the Middle East does not become the focus of out-of-control war, but also to deal with the complex situation on all fronts.
However, the power of Allah and other Middle Eastern armed forces is clearly not enough to truly shake the military power of the United States and Israel. They have tried to maintain tension through frequent attacks, but their actual impact has been relatively limited. To truly influence the Middle East, a larger force is needed.
Against this backdrop, attacks by Iraqi militias, threats by the Houthis against merchant ships in the Red Sea, and actions by Iranian destroyers are all part of an attempt to escalate the war. These moves are not only to put the United States in a two-front dilemma, but also to prevent the Middle East from cooling down and maintain regional tensions.
Overall, Allah's strategic goal is to maintain tensions in the Middle East that will make it difficult for the United States and Israel to get out easily. This situation is an opportunity for China and Russia. They can carry out more decisive operations elsewhere without worrying about the Middle East war holding too many resources down.
In the coming period, we will witness a further evolution of the war situation in the Middle East. Whether Allah can achieve their strategic goals, and how the United States and Israel respond, will be the focus of global attention. The tension in the Middle East may become the eye of the new storm in international politics. We hope that all parties will respond calmly and make efforts for regional and global peace and stability.