A major car accident occurred in Taiwan.
On January 5, the global network quoted Taiwan's ETtoday News Cloud reported on the 5th that 108 kilometers south of Taiwan's No. 3 Highway, a series of major car accidents occurred on the evening of the 4th, and 6 vehicles collided at the scene and 3 people were sent to the hospital, resulting in 1 death and 1 serious injury. The report mentioned that the 45-year-old driver surnamed Lai who died was the deputy manager of TSMC.
For Wall Street, the "finale" of the first week of 2024 will undoubtedly be the US non-farm payrolls data. On the evening of January 5, Beijing time, the December 2023 non-farm payrolls report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 216,000 in December, exceeding market expectations of 175,000 and exceeding the previous value of 199,000.
Analysts point out that the first non-farm payrolls report of 2024 is crucial for the Fed's interest rate outlook, and strong non-farm payrolls (200,000-250,000) combined with higher wage inflation may cause the market to reassess bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts. After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes once dived and the decline expanded, the dollar index soared, and the U.S. Treasury yields soared in the short term.
For the non-farm payrolls report, U.S. President Joe Biden said that at a time when inflation is falling back towards 2%, jobs are growing strongly, and workers' wages and wealth are higher than they were before the pandemic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the pessimistic view of the U.S. economy has proved to be unwarranted, and that the U.S. has achieved a soft landing and hopes this will continue. Meaning, the Fed has already made a good decision.
Sudden major car accident
On January 5, the global network quoted Taiwan's ETtoday News Cloud reported on the 5th that 108 kilometers south of Taiwan's No. 3 Highway, a series of major car accidents occurred on the evening of the 4th, and 6 vehicles collided at the scene and 3 people were sent to the hospital, resulting in 1 death and 1 serious injury.
The report mentioned that the 45-year-old driver surnamed Lai who died was the deputy manager of TSMC.
According to reports, items at the scene were scattered all over the ground, not only the tires were directly knocked off, but also two injured people were lying on the ground, and the six vehicles that chased and collided were almost "glued together".
According to the report, the three drivers of the 1st, 2nd, and 5th cars rummaged in the trunk for warning lights, and because the fifth car was a station wagon, when the rear door was opened, the rear lights were lifted upwards. Worried that the rear vehicle would not be able to see the headlights, the two drivers surnamed Xu and Lai took out their mobile phones, turned on the flashlights, and waved their mobile phone flashlights to the rear lane to warn, but the sixth car still had no time to react and crashed directly towards Xu and Lai.
The report mentioned that from the first crash to the two surnamed Xu and Lai getting out of the car and walking to the fifth car to look for the warning triangle, to the last two people being hit, the whole process was only about 5 minutes.
According to reports, the injured surnamed Lai, who worked for TSMC, died after being taken to the hospital by ambulance.
The 6th Highway Police Brigade of the National Highway Police Bureau said that at 6:28 p.m. on January 4, it received a report that six self-used passenger cars had an accident on the 108.4-kilometer Xiangshan section of the southbound section of Country 3. The first accident in the preliminary investigation was that 5 cars crashed into the outside lane, and the drivers of the 4th and 5th cars got off the station and stood in the lane to call the police, and then were hit by the white oncoming car from behind, resulting in 2 injured informants and fell to the ground, and the ambulance sent to the hospital for first aid, the scene of the accident was ruled out at 19:45, and the details of the accident and the alcohol test value are still to be clarified by the police investigation.
But according to Wind data, there is no one in TSMC's list of current executives. On social platforms, some comments said that the driver surnamed Lai in the above-mentioned car accident may be the deputy manager of a certain department.
On December 19, 2023, TSMC announced that the current chairman Liu Deyin will not participate in the nomination of the next director and will retire after the next year's general meeting of shareholders, and the current CEO and vice chairman Wei Zhejia will be recommended as the next chairman, and the exact personnel arrangement will be determined by the results of the board election in June 2024.
Liu Deyin said in a statement that he hopes to retire to spend more time with his family, and will continue to work with the board of directors on corporate governance until the end of his term.
"Non-farm Night" exploded
At 21:30 Beijing time on January 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December 2023 non-farm payrolls report, which showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 216,000 in December, greatly exceeding market expectations of 175,000 and exceeding the previous value of 199,000.
The report showed that the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.7% in December, lower than expectations of 3.8% and unchanged from the previous value. The firm unemployment rate was due to a reduction in the labour force, with the labour force participation rate falling further to 62.5% from 62.8% previously.
In terms of wages, which the market is concerned about, wages rose more than expected in December, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-on-month, beating expectations of 0.3% and in line with the previous reading. However, the year-on-year growth rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, beating market expectations of 3.9% and accelerating from 4% in the previous month.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell further, with the Nasdaq futures falling 0.58%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.52%, and the Dow Jones futures falling 0.52%, and the U.S. dollar index rising in the short term, reaching as high as 103.08.
Wall Street analysts pointed out that the first non-farm payrolls report of 2024 is crucial to the Fed's interest rate outlook, and strong non-farm payrolls (200,000-250,000) coupled with higher wage inflation may prompt the market to reassess its bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, which will become a risk event for the stock market and will also add momentum to the continued rebound of the dollar.
Deutsche Bank strategists, led by Jim Reid, said the strong jobs data had heightened suspicions that the Fed would cut interest rates in March.
Prior to the report, the consensus expectation was that the Fed had completed raising interest rates and could start cutting rates as early as March and cut rates by 150 basis points for the full year. After the release of the non-farm payrolls report, interest rate cut expectations cooled, and swap contracts traded at prices showing that investors were pricing in a slightly less than 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March
After the release of the December non-farm payrolls report, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond soared, rising more than 10 basis points to 4.085% at one point.
But then there was a dramatic scene, after the opening of the U.S. stock market on the evening of the same day, the U.S. December ISM non-manufacturing index announced fell more than expected, hitting the largest month-on-month decline in 9 months, which means that the expansion of enterprises in the service industry, the main contributor to U.S. GDP, slowed down more than expected, and the employment sub-index in December also hit a new low in more than three years, releasing a signal that the labor market cooled more than expected.
Treasury prices jumped after the data, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking 4.0% in early trading and the two-year yield returning to decline, while the dollar index also retreated sharply.
After the ISM data, the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in March has rebounded, and the swap market has repriced the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March, now betting on a 70% probability of a rate cut in March
As of the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.18%, down 1.52% this week, the Nasdaq rose 0.09%, down 3.25% this week, and the Dow rose 0.07%, down 0.59% this week.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Heng
Proofreading: Zhu Tianting