The world's largest pure electric vehicle company has changed hands!
Landmark Event"
Author: Qin Zhangyong, Truman
The richest man in the world also has a time when he looks away.
More than ten years ago, in an interview, Musk ridiculed BYD, "Have you seen their car?" It can be seen that Boss Ma at that time did not regard BYD as an opponent.
But time has passed, and BYD once ignored it, and now the latter has begun to overtake.
Tesla released sales data last night, and in the fourth quarter of 2023, a total of 484,500 vehicles were delivered, exceeding market expectations of 483,200 units, which also hit a record high.
But even so, Tesla still has not sold BYD, and BYD's pure electric vehicle sales reached 526,409 units in the same period.
This is the first time that BYD has surpassed Tesla, and before that, Tesla was recognized as the king of pure electric vehicles, and Musk also had a lot of appeal.
Businessinsider lamented that Tesla is losing its dominance in the electric vehicle market and has ceded the electric car crown to China.
01
Tesla was overtaken by BYD
It is indeed an unfriendly signal for Tesla.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla produced about 495,000 electric vehicles worldwide and delivered more than 484,000 electric vehicles. By model, Tesla delivered a total of 461,500 Model 3 and Y models, while other models delivered about 23,000 units.
For the whole year of 2023, Tesla delivered a total of 1,808,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and its production was 1,850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%, which also allowed Tesla to achieve its annual delivery target (1.8 million units), and the main model is still Model 3/Y, with a total of 1,739,700 units delivered.
From the perspective of the whole year, Tesla's pure electric vehicle sales are still more than BYD's (1.5748 million), but BYD's sales trend is more ferocious.
We can compare visually through the data.
Tesla's sales in the four quarters of the year were 422,000, 466,000, 435,100 and 495,000 respectively.
BYD's pure electric sales in the four quarters of the year were 263,000, 352,000, 431,600 and 526,000 respectively.
From the perspective of growth rate, Tesla is significantly weaker than BYD, so many people predict that by 2024, BYD's annual sales will surpass Tesla's will be a high probability event.
There is a real basis for this, Tesla's largest market is still the United States, but with the new requirements of the US IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) for the procurement of battery materials coming into effect, the rear-wheel drive version and long-range version of the Tesla Model 3 will no longer enjoy the $7,500 federal tax credit this year.
It also means that Tesla will have to face delivery pressure in 2024, and the 495,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 will also overdraft the sales volume for the coming year to a certain extent.
There is also bad news for Tesla, the bears are equally adamantly bullish.
Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth Capital who has long been bearish on Tesla, recently reiterated that Tesla's share price is grossly overvalued.
He compared Tesla to Toyota, which produces about 9 million cars a year, and concluded that Tesla makes only a small fraction of Toyota's sales, "There is nothing in Tesla that Toyota does not have, why is it trading many times more expensive than Toyota?"
Owen has a price target of $85 for Tesla, which means the company will plummet by more than 60%, and Tesla's stock price is currently around $248.
Faced with the bears' plunge warning, Musk also began to fight back, saying that Owen ignored Tesla's potential in the field of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, "He got the frame of reference wrong." We are an AI/robotics company. ”
Compared with the fire in Tesla's backyard, BYD is very moist.
According to the first financial report, BYD's cumulative sales in 2023 will reach 3.0244 million units, successfully achieving the target, in order to reward dealers, BYD is expected to spend about 2 billion yuan to dealers "red envelopes".
For some stores that have completed the sales target, BYD will issue a reward of 666 yuan per car, and even if it is not completed, it will be issued according to the completion rate of the store's sales target, multiplied by the standard of 666 yuan per vehicle.
Brother Chuanfu waved his hand, and it was indeed quite bold. It is reported that most of BYD's stores across the country have completed the sales task.
02
2024 is more competitive
In 2022, BYD's BEV sales were about 400,000 fewer than Tesla's, and by 2023, that gap had almost halved.
The reason why it can play is that it covers a larger market range with lower prices.
Musk has been concerned that there are not enough consumers who can afford Tesla electric cars at high interest rates.
But Wang Chuanfu's strategy is completely different - it is cheap and big.
Most of BYD's models are priced lower than Tesla's Model 3 sold in China, and the Model 3 is the cheapest in Tesla's entire product lineup. Even so, its price is more than 200,000 yuan, and at the same time, BYD's cheapest Qin PLUS series can even be as low as 100,000 yuan.
You can buy a plug-in hybrid car for 100,000 yuan, what kind of bicycle do you need?
Paul Gong, head of research at UBS AG's China auto industry, also said in an interview with Bloomberg that BYD's products have a significant cost advantage over competitors.
Looking back now, Tesla's price war at the beginning of 2023 has to face the counterattack of those players with solid backgrounds.
According to the latest report released by market research agency Counterpoint Research, global passenger electric vehicle (BEV) sales will reach nearly 10 million units in 2023.
In the third quarter, BYD and Tesla respectively ranked the top two in the global pure electric vehicle market share, and BYD (excluding Denza) has caught up with Tesla, the former increased by 4% year-on-year, and both have a market share of 17%.
Among them, BYD's pure electric vehicle sales increased by 68% year-on-year, and Tesla's sales increased by 27% year-on-year. It can be seen with the naked eye that BYD's growth rate is much higher than Tesla's.
After BYD and Tesla announced their annual sales, the Wall Street Journal analyzed that Tesla is facing a "period of low-speed growth". Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner predicts that Tesla's 2024 performance will be sluggish due to limited sales growth.
The Financial Times reported on the 2nd that BYD is now known as an industry leader, not only maintaining an advantage in production costs, but also having strong vertical integration capabilities.
There is no doubt that BYD Q4 surpasses Tesla, which is a lot of pressure for both parties. According to CNN, despite BYD's strong performance, its sales were slightly below market expectations, and its stock price also fell slightly yesterday.
The pressure is high, and of course the motivation is greater. It is foreseeable that BYD will launch more products and technologies in 2024.
Wang Chuanfu said in an interview with foreign media in March 2023 that "the performance of an auto company will depend on its technology and response." BYD is currently the winner in China's electrification space, but what the future holds for it, we can't be sure. But we will use our strengths to continue to make good products. ”
For Tesla, it's more of a pressure, and after years of leadership in the electric vehicle space, Tesla is likely to face greater challenges in 2024 and more competition in China.
According to Reuters, Tesla plans to deliver 2.2 million vehicles next year, up 22% from 2023 and down from about 38% in 2023. Regarding the delivery prospect in 2024, Musk has admitted that Tesla cannot maintain a compound annual growth rate of 50% all the time.
At this stage, Tesla is still ahead of BYD in terms of revenue, profit and market capitalization. But analysts at Bernstein, a U.S. investment research firm, expect the gap to close significantly in 2024. They expect Tesla's full-year 2024 sales to reach $114 billion, while BYD's $112 billion.
In this way, the big battle between the two sides will be more intense in 2024.