Joseph. Stalin is considered one of the most powerful leaders in soviet history, and Western leaders have an assessment of him that Stalin is like a lion. During Stalin's tenure, the Soviet Union transformed itself from a backward agrarian country into a powerful industrialized country, winning World War II and becoming a world-class superpower second only to the United States. No matter how many mistakes Stalin made in history, there is no doubt that he was an extremely strong leader. However, in Stalin's life, there was one mistake that could never be circumvented, that is, it was not expected that the German army would launch a surprise attack.
On June 22, 1941, more than 3 million German troops and millions of Axis troops pounced on the Soviet Union, and in just a few months they approached Moscow, eating millions of Soviet troops, and the world's largest country was almost destroyed, and Stalin himself was extremely shocked by this attack. Although it is true that Germany tore up the Soviet-German non-aggression pact and suddenly attacked the Soviet Union, for a sophisticated politician like Stalin, he naturally did not give up his vigilance just because of a paper treaty, so what caused Stalin to be shocked by the German offensive in 1941 and not to make a prejudgment?
Combined with the large number of historical materials published later, from the perspective of later generations to review the story of that year, the author believes that there are three main reasons, which caused such a scheming leader as Stalin not to anticipate a sudden attack on Germany. The first is the international situation before 1941, and the repeated policy of the Western bloc to divert waters from the east has indeed made Stalin have a greater hostility to the West and a fluke mentality toward Germany. From 1938 to 1940, the attitude of the entire Anglo-French Western bloc toward Germany was in fact a constant tolerance of repeated concessions to Hitler, the purpose of which was to allow Hitler to turn eastward to attack the Soviet Union after obtaining enough land on the Western Front, which is recognized by posterity.
Before the signing of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact, the Soviet Union repeatedly contacted Britain and France to try to obtain a peace treaty, but Britain and France always disdained the Soviet Union, but instead vigorously courted Germany, which forced the Soviet Union to sign a peace treaty for its own security and Germany. Stalin knew in his heart that the old Western countries such as Britain and France were extremely hostile to the nascent communist Soviet Union, and this impression was deepened after a series of failed efforts to contact the West. So later when Britain constantly warned the Soviet Union that Germany might launch an offensive, Stalin thought that this was a deliberate attempt by Britain to stir up relations between the Soviet Union and Germany, and the more this information, the more he firmly believed this.
However, the more important reason why Stalin did not believe that Germany would attack the Soviet Union was the conclusion of Stalin's analysis in the light of the actual situation and history of that year. Although Germany conquered the Western European continent in 1941, Britain still confronted Germany at sea, and although the United States did not participate in the war, the momentum of favoring Britain was very obvious. Once Germany attacked at this time, the Soviet Union would inevitably fall into a two-front combat situation, which was a taboo for soldiers. People of that era knew very well that the root cause of Germany's defeat in world war I was a two-front war, and Stalin himself attached great importance to this. According to later declassified information, Stalin was taken aback when he heard the news of the German attack on the Soviet Union, repeating repeatedly: "Are the Germans willing to risk a two-front war with us?" No, this must be a ghost made by the British! It can be seen that it is precisely because of this line of thinking that history judges the present that Stalin firmly believes that Germany, fearing a two-front war, will not go to war with the Soviet Union.
In addition to the above two reasons, the balance of power between the Soviet Union and Germany and germany's military intelligence work were also the reasons why Stalin refused to believe it. At that time, the Soviet Union had the largest number of troops in Europe, and its reserves were almost inexhaustible, which can be seen from the fact that the Soviet Union still increased its strength after 41 years of loss of 4 million people. In fact, in 1941 the Soviets rebuilt 825 division-level units, which is a very frightening number. And the crucial monthly production of tanks, in 41 years Germany averaged less than 100, while the Soviet Union averaged more than 300. Out of confidence in the Soviet Military's military power, Stalin did not think that Germany had the courage to challenge the Soviet Union, and in addition, Germany used full power in the pre-war military intelligence department to carry out propaganda, constantly releasing news of the "Sea Lion Operation" against Britain, while using various pretexts to cover up the fact that troops were massing in the eastern region. What is even more exaggerated is that at this stage, the military and economic cooperation between Germany and the Soviet Union was not interrupted, and Germany and the Soviet Union constantly exchanged various military raw materials and military technology, and even on the day of the outbreak of the war, there was a Soviet train to send war materials to Germany. It can be said that the excellent operation of German military intelligence really blinded the eyes of the Soviet leaders.
It is said that the wise man has a mistake, and a sophisticated politician like Stalin did not expect the sudden outbreak of war between the two superpowers, which gives us many enlightenments. One of them should never rely on subjective judgment to ignore the possibility of war, even between superpowers.