2023 has been an extraordinary year, with bank interest rates being cut three times during the year.
In fact, the reduction of bank interest rates is an inevitable problem in the development process of most countries, but the reduction of bank interest rates three times a year still makes people feel a little anxious.
Originally, the major banks on the mainland have cut interest rates twice in June and September this year, with each cut ranging from 10 basis points to 25 basis points.
Towards the end of the year, the mainland's six major banks (China Industrial, Agricultural, Jianjiao, and Post) took the lead in announcing a reduction in deposit interest rates, with three-month, six-month, and one-year deposit rates all being lowered by 10 basis points, to 1.15%, 1.35%, and 1.45% respectively.
We calculate according to a one-year fixed deposit of 1 million, and the one-year interest rate is only 14,500 yuan, which is basically negligible for a person who can deposit millions.
The 2-year was cut by 20 basis points to 1.65%. The 3-year and 5-year maturities were cut by 25 basis points, with rates falling to 1.95% and 2%, respectively.
Just two days after the six major banks cut interest rates, that is, yesterday, 12 joint-stock banks collectively announced a reduction in deposit interest rates, which is basically the same as that of the six major banks.
Banks are so eager to cut interest rates because they want to maintain a relatively good net interest margin. At present, the net interest margin of commercial banks across the country has dropped to 1.73%, which is a relatively low position. If banks do not cut their deposit rates, then there may be a collective decline in net profits.
The mainstream banks are all state-owned, and the banks will cut interest rates and affect the whole body, and the banks seem to be protecting their net profits from being affected, but in fact they are also rushing people not to save. If this continues, we will keep our money in the bank, and we may have to pay a bank custodian fee.
What happens if people don't keep their money in the bank?
Theoretically, these people who dislike low interest rates will use their savings to buy a house, speculate in stocks, spend or make other investments.
Whether these people use the money to buy a house or do something else, it's a good thing for the economic cycle. Assuming that many people stop saving money and start to take out money to buy a house, then the crumbling real estate industry will be injected with a shot of strength, which is expected to lead to the recovery of the long-term industrial chain.
But the reality is that almost all of the real estate is falling now, except for buyers who just need a house, everyone else is waiting, after all, waiting for an extra year may cost 500,000 yuan less. It's not easy to make 500,000 yuan.
If this money is used for stock speculation, it is very likely that A-shares will say goodbye to 3,000 points and welcome 6,000 points. But the problem is that more than 90% of A-share shareholders are now in a state of loss, who would dare to increase their positions at this time?
Consumption is possible, but there must be a reasonable reason. It's better to give people some emotional value, otherwise why should they consume?
According to the most ideal economic model, when the bank interest rate falls, some people should take out their money to buy a house, some people speculate in stocks, and many people come to consume, and eventually the second wave of economic growth will appear.
The ideal is very plump, and the reality is very skinny. This generation of young people not only does not buy houses, but also does not speculate in stocks or consume, which is just savings. The more interest rates fall, the more they save, and the main thing is a rebellion.
According to statistics, by the end of 2022, the total deposits of mainland residents were 120.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.84 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. At this pace, the total deposits of mainland residents may reach 140 trillion yuan in 2023, as an increase of 9.9 trillion yuan in 2021. It can be seen from this that the total amount of deposits of mainland residents is constantly increasing, and even doubling.
And the mainland's deposit interest rate has also fallen all the way since 2021, which shows that the more interest rates fall, the more people save.
Why this anomaly?
Li Ling, a professor at Peking University, said that China's savings rate is the largest in the world, but ordinary people dare not consume because of insufficient protection, such as medical care, education, and pension. The reason why we are desperately saving money is mainly because the money we personally save is like a small basin of water, when a fire comes, we can pour a basin of water on it. Therefore, a lot of money has been wasted, and if it is not spent, the people's sense of gain is insufficient.
Some netizens said that they had two children, one with mild pneumonia and the other with influenza A, and spent nearly 2,000 yuan on treatment. A colleague's child was seriously ill and spent 19,000 yuan on hospitalization.
This is still the cost of medical insurance, which is tens of thousands of yuan at every turn, which makes ordinary people have to save money.
Another reason for the increase in deposits is that the gap between the rich and the poor is widening, ordinary people's income in addition to housing loans, car loans, education, medical care, daily expenses, it is difficult to have extra money to deposit, most of the people who can save are rich and rent, they have a high income, nowhere to spend, after all, the property market, the stock market is sluggish, can only be saved temporarily.
Young man, are you taking a revenge deposit?
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