Another 9 trillion province is about to come out

Text: Kaifeng

2023 is coming to an end, who is jumping?

According to official media reports, according to relevant forecasts, Shandong can successfully complete the economic growth target set at the beginning of the year, and the total economic output is expected to reach 9 trillion yuan this year, and the number of cities exceeding one trillion yuan is expected to reach 3.

This means that Shandong's position as the third largest province in China's economy will be further consolidated, and Yantai is likely to become the third trillion city in Shandong after Qingdao and Jinan.

How big is the impact of the expansion of trillion-dollar cities and the promotion of major economic provinces?

01

What does it mean to be a province of 9 trillion?

There are more than 180 countries and regions in the world, but no more than 20 have a total GDP of more than 9 trillion yuan (about 1.3 trillion US dollars).

In other words, Shandong's total economic output has exceeded more than 80% of the world's countries, and it can rank 16th in the world, surpassing the Netherlands, Turkey and other countries, which can be called "rich and rival countries".

Last year, Shandong's total GDP reached 8.74 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was as high as 6%, with a nominal increase of more than 370 billion yuan, exceeding the expected target at the beginning of the year.

It can be seen that as long as there is no negative growth in the fourth quarter, Shandong's annual GDP will exceed 9 trillion yuan, and once again cross the new trillion mark, and there is almost no suspense.

Obviously, the possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter is infinitely close to zero. Not to mention the low base brought about by the impact of unexpected events in the same period last year, the recent improvement in foreign trade and industrial conditions has also brought strong support to the annual economy.

Standing at 9 trillion, 10 trillion provinces are already in sight.

According to the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Shandong's average annual GDP growth rate from 2021 to 2025 is set at about 5.5%, and the work will strive to reach more than 6%.

Although the impact of unexpected factors has brought some disturbances, even according to the actual growth target of 5%, it may not be impossible for Shandong's total GDP to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025.

Of course, all this is only the beginning of a new journey for Shandong, not the end.

You must know that Guangdong, which is also a major economic province, is about to reach the 13 trillion mark this year, while Jiangsu is more than 12 trillion, and Zhejiang is also following closely behind, with a high probability of 8 trillion this year.

It can be seen that Shandong has pacesetters in front and pursuers in the rear, and there is no possibility of slackening on the road of economic development.

You must know that as early as more than 30 years ago, Shandong once competed with Guangdong and Jiangsu to compete for the first province, until 1989, when Guangdong stood in the position of the largest province, this station was 34 years long.

Today, Shandong's economy has rebounded strongly, and it may not be possible to catch up with Guangdong and Suzhou again in the future.

02

The trillion club has expanded, and Shandong has become the third largest province.

At the same time that the GDP has reached a new trillion level, the third trillion GDP city will be born in Shandong Province.

As the third largest city in Shandong, there is no suspense that Yantai will enter the trillion club this year.

Last year, Yantai's GDP exceeded 9,500 trillion yuan, and the increase in the first three quarters of this year has exceeded 50 billion.

Yantai is not an ordinary prefecture-level city of insignificance, but an out-and-out industrial city.

The heavy chemical industry is the biggest pillar, and the electronic information industry, non-ferrous and precious metal industry, and food processing industry have also reached the level of 100 billion.

Yantai's industrial strength surpasses that of Jinan, Hefei, Xi'an and many other provincial capitals. According to the data, in 2022, Yantai's total industrial added value will be 348.135 billion yuan, ranking about 20th in the country.

Although the conversion of old and new kinetic energy has always been a problem, the many large-scale projects of tens of billions or even hundreds of billions introduced by Yantai are enough to ensure the steady growth of GDP in the next few years.

Among them, the most eye-catching is the Yulong Island refining and chemical integration project with an investment of nearly 150 billion yuan, which is the largest single industrial project in Shandong Province so far, and it is also a veritable "No. 1 project".

Once fully completed and put into operation, it will bring a huge increase in GDP and fiscal revenue to Yantai, and support Yantai to take a step forward in a trillion city.

Once Yantai is promoted, Shandong will become the only province in the northern region with three trillion cities, and also the third province in the country with three or more trillion cities.

At present, there are 24 cities with a GDP of one trillion yuan in the mainland, of which 18 are in the south and only 6 in the north.

Among the major cities, Yantai and Changzhou are expected to be jointly promoted this year. At that time, the trillion GDP club will be expanded to 26 seats, the South to 19 seats, and the North to 7 seats.

From the perspective of provincial distribution, Jiangsu will lead with 5 seats, Guangdong will still maintain 4 seats, Shandong will expand to 3 seats, and Zhejiang and Fujian will have 2 seats, all of which are major economic provinces without exception.

Although the gap between the north and the south still exists, Shandong's continuous leap will become the biggest bright spot in the northern economy and one of the biggest ballast stones in the northern economy.

In fact, after Yantai, there will be a number of cities in the north that will be promoted.

According to local planning and the latest data, Tangshan in Hebei Province and Dalian in Liaoning Province are expected to complete breakthroughs in about two years, while Shenyang in Liaoning Province, Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province and Weifang in Shandong Province are expected to achieve breakthroughs in about three to four years.

At that time, Shandong will give birth to the fourth trillion city, and Liaoning and Hebei will also break the embarrassment of zero trillion cities.

03

The biggest feature of Shandong's regional economy is balance.

Similar to Jiangsu, which has the "Thirteen Taibao" and is known as "Bulk Jiangsu", Shandong also has no strong provincial capital and no unique strong central city.

At present, Shandong has a total of 16 prefecture-level cities, of which Jinan and Qingdao are sub-provincial cities, and Yantai, Weifang, Liaocheng and other ordinary prefecture-level cities.

Although there are no top 10 cities, whether it is one of the top 100 cities or top 100 counties, Shandong ranks among the best, matching its status as the third largest province in terms of economy.

From the perspective of the top 100 cities, Shandong has a total of 16 cities, of which 11 cities have been promoted to the top 100 cities in the country, surpassing Guangdong in total.

Shandong's top 100 cities, basically are industrial cities, there is no lack of the ability to stand alone, Weifang, Zibo and other ordinary prefecture-level cities manufacturing "single champions" number, enough to be compared with the central and western provinces.

From the perspective of the top 100 counties, Shandong has a total of 13 top 100 counties, second only to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ranking third in the country.

At present, there are 52 counties with a GDP of 100 billion yuan in the country, of which Shandong occupies 5 seats, namely Qingdao Jiaozhou City, Yantai Longkou City, Weihai Rongcheng City, Jining Zou City and Weifang Shouguang City.

The relatively balanced regional structure has allowed Shandong to form a development model in which three major economic circles go hand in hand: the provincial capital economic circle, the Jiaodong economic circle, and the Lunan economic circle.

Of course, although the Lunan Economic Circle has a large population and a vast area, it is difficult to be self-contained due to the lack of a strong central city, and Shandong is still dominated by Jinan and Qingdao.

However, since there is no shortage of leading industries in major cities, there is no need to fully rely on strong central cities, so there is no shortage of possibilities for each to get out of the circle.

Last year's Cao County, this year's Zibo and Weifang have all become the leaders of Internet celebrity cities, and they have also become a model for ordinary cities to break through in the era of traffic economy.

In the future, as Yantai and Weifang have been promoted to the trillion club, Shandong's economy will give birth to more new growth poles, and the road to regional equilibrium will be smoother.

04

Who would have thought that just four or five years ago, Shandong was once mired in the controversy of an economic slowdown.

At that time, the results of the fourth national economic census were released, and Shandong was "squeezed" hundreds of billions of water at one time, and the total GDP fell directly from more than 7 trillion yuan to 6 trillion yuan.

At the same time, with the advent of the "dual carbon" era, the traditional energy and chemical industry is facing continuous transformation pressure, and Shandong, as a traditional petrochemical and steel town, is naturally the first to bear the brunt.

In Shandong, there have always been two 70% theories: traditional industries account for about 70% of the industry, and heavy chemical industries account for about 70% of the traditional industries.

This has formed a certain difference with that between Guangdong and Suzhou.

Guangdong and Jiangsu both regard the electronic information industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing as the first and second pillar industries, and mobile phones, notebooks, integrated circuits, lithium batteries, and smart home appliances as the main industrial products.

In contrast, Shandong's industrial output ranks among the top in the country, mostly pig iron, crude steel, steel, soda ash, ethylene, sulfuric acid and other energy and chemical products, highlighting the background color of Shandong as a heavy industry province.

In the face of this problem, Shandong did not lie down. As early as 2018, relevant people in Shandong bluntly said that Shandong is facing the dilemma of "running from others chasing others to chasing others".

The key to solving this problem lies in the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.

In the same year, the "Overall Plan for the Construction of a Comprehensive Pilot Zone for the Conversion of New and Old Kinetic Energy in Shandong Province" was approved, which was the first regional development strategy in the country with the theme of converting old and new kinetic energy.

Subsequently, Shandong eliminated trillions of backward production capacity, treated more than 110,000 "scattered and polluted" enterprises, reduced tens of millions of tons of crude steel and coking capacity, and shut down 9.393 million kilowatts of inefficient coal-fired power units.

Any transformation will be accompanied by pains, especially the elimination of backward production capacity, which will inevitably have a short-term impact on the economy, but as long as it is steadily advanced, the economy will eventually return to the normal track.

Five years later, Shandong has proved this.

At present, Shandong has cultivated new kinetic energy represented by the "top ten" industries, mainly including a new generation of information technology, high-end equipment, new energy and new materials, modern medicine, etc.

In recent years, many people's impression of Shandong is no longer the traditional "stupid big black coarse", and Shandong's figure is becoming more and more common in major lists such as specialized, special and new, individual champions, and advanced manufacturing national teams.

By the end of 2023, Shandong Province has 186 national manufacturing individual champion enterprises, ranking second in the country, and 756 specialized and new "little giants", ranking third in the country, which can be seen from its strong competitiveness.

Of course, the lack of R&D intensity and the underdevelopment of strategic emerging industries are still shortcomings that Shandong urgently needs to make up.