Institutional Theory of Market Outlook丨The inflection point of the market and confidence is approaching, welcoming the New Year's Eve market

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% for the week, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.23%. What is the future of the A-share market?

(1) CITIC Securities: The inflection point of the market and confidence is approaching, and mid-January next year is a critical time

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that, on the one hand, the northbound capital outflow since August this year has come to an end, since this week, the net redemption rate of sample public fund products has dropped significantly, and the top 100 heavy stocks of public funds have had a positive average return in the last 5 trading days of each of the past 4 years, and the market clearance is nearing the end. On the other hand, the real estate policy is in the observation period after the landing, and it is expected that the follow-up policy will continue to increase, and the probability of LPR reduction in January next year is high, and the market's expectations for economic growth are still relatively large in the policy target.

The inflection point of markets and confidence is approaching, and mid-January next year is a critical point. It is expected that the consensus of over-falling growth will be the first to form, and it is recommended to continue to increase the allocation of technology and pharmaceutical sectors.

(2) GF Securities: The implementation of policy uncertainty is expected to guide the marginal improvement of market expectations and prepare for the spring turmoil

GF Securities Research Report pointed out that although the U.S. bond interest rate continued to fall this week and further confirmed the "overseas policy bottom", the trend of A-shares was weak, mainly due to the weak domestic economic data and policy expectations. However, market expectations have been at a low level, and the tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference and the recent policy intensity have not been significantly lower than market expectations, but have made policy uncertainty land. At present, in the context of active industrial themes and policies that are still expected to exert force, the layout of spring restlessness.

(3) Huaxi Securities: A-shares are waiting for an upward breakthrough in the "grinding bottom", and the acceleration of plate rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature

Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that from the perspective of the turnover of the two markets of A-shares, the valuation of major indices and the risk premium, the current A-shares are in the medium and long-term bottom range, and tend to price the medium and long-term problems in the short term, and the market risk appetite needs to be repaired. In terms of industry allocation, the acceleration of sector rotation at the end of the year will become the main feature, and the large-cap style may have a short-term equilibrium due to the relative valuation comparison. In terms of allocation, the low-valuation dividend sector with abundant cash flow is used as the ballast stone, and the areas that will benefit from industrial catalysis and policy expectation improvement are the medium-term main line: such as Huawei's industrial chain, semiconductors, consumer electronics, etc.

(4) Dongguan Securities: The market is expected to stabilize and repair to meet the New Year's Eve market

Dongguan Securities Research Report pointed out that the introduction of incremental policies is expected to continue to heat up, and the follow-up policy orientation will be more positive to help restore market confidence. Although the LPR interest rate quotation continued to remain unchanged in December, a number of large state-owned banks lowered the deposit interest rate again, which will help banks reduce debt costs, maintain reasonable interest margins and profit margins, and release space for subsequent interest rate cuts. However, the current funding is still tight, considering that monetary easing is still the general direction, and the issuance of government bonds continues to advance, it is expected that there will still be room for RRR cuts in the future to protect the liquidity at the end of the year.

From a technical point of view, the long-short see-saw is still relatively intense, but the current overall market valuation has fallen back to a historical low, and asset prices may be factored into too many pessimistic expectations. As many departments actively implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and steadily promote the implementation of the policy of steady economic growth, the follow-up economic data may gradually improve, repair the pessimism in the market, thereby driving the rebound of market risk appetite, and the market is expected to stabilize and repair to meet the New Year's Eve market. It is recommended to pay attention to building decoration, banking, coal, machinery and equipment, power equipment and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries.

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