On December 14, 2023 local time, Tokyo, Japan, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno (center) had to submit his resignation to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida due to his involvement in a political donation scandal. Surging image diagram
Recently, Japan's political scene has been plunged into the most serious black and gold scandal since the "Likulut Incident" in 1988 (editor's note: this scandal directly led to the collapse of the then Takeshita Cabinet, and was one of the reasons why the "55-year system" of the Liberal Democratic Party's long-term rule came to an end in 1993), and its center was the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, the Abe faction (Seiwa Policy Research Association).
On December 14, due to being involved in a political donation scandal, a number of Japanese cabinet officials submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the same day, including Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasunori Nishimura, Prime Minister Assistant Tsuko Ueno, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Miyashitaro, and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki. On the same day, Koichi Hagiuda, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's government affairs research committee, also submitted his resignation to Kishida. Among them, Yasunori Nishimura, Hirokazu Matsuno, Miyashitarou, Junji Suzuki and Koichi Ogiuda all belong to the Abe faction.
The Abe faction has long prided itself on its far-reaching political influence, with its history dating back to 1957 when it was founded by Nobusuke Kishi, the maternal grandfather of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. From Nobusuke Kishi to Shinzo Abe, it has been passed down from generation to generation and has been the backbone of Japanese politics. However, with the revelation of the black gold scandal, the investigation of the Tokyo District Prosecutor's Office has been extended to the members of the Abe faction, and many high-ranking officials have been involved, and panic has spread within the faction. The Abe faction's bulwark of power is under unprecedented shock. The suspicion of converting political funds into black money not only involves individual lawmakers, but also touches the reputation of entire factions, and reveals to the outside world the fragility and challenges of Fumio Kishida's regime under the power game.
Loopholes with "kickbacks" of political parties black gold
The illegal collection and improper use of political funds has always been a stubborn problem in Japanese politics. In 1948, the Japanese Diet enacted the Political Funds Regulation Act with reference to the Federal Anti-Corruption Act of the United States. However, the bill mainly focuses on ensuring the openness of the income and expenditure of political funds, but ignores the restrictions and constraints on political donations. The bill does not explicitly prohibit corporate groups from making political donations to politicians, so that companies and politicians can effectively circumvent the constraints of the bill and establish a chain of interests based on the exchange of "political contributions" and "policy returns".
In August 1993, under the banner of "political reform," the Hosokawa Gohei administration, which was formed by a coalition of non-LDP forces, revised the "Political Funds Regulation Act" in order to break the chain of interests in the LDP's financial power politics. The amendment strictly regulates donations from groups or individuals to politicians, but leaves a loophole in the purchase of tickets for political fundraising parties. According to the current "Political Funds Regulation Law", groups or individuals are required to record donations of more than 50,000 yen (about 2,505 yuan) to politicians. However, in contrast, if a group or individual purchases tickets for a single political fundraising party for less than 200,000 yen, the name and amount of the purchaser do not need to be recorded. Because of this relatively lax rule, ticket revenues from political fundraising parties have gradually become a breeding ground for black money.
Financing through tickets is legal in itself, but if the same group or individual purchases tickets for more than 200,000 yen in a single banquet, even if they are purchased from different members of the House, they must be recorded in the income and expenditure report. For a long time, factions of the Liberal Democratic Party have been raising money by selling tickets to banquets. The Abe faction is mired in a black gold scandal this time, which actually stems from the issue of illegally obtaining "kickbacks" from the sale of tickets for political fund-raising parties.
The crisis of the Abe faction in the maelstrom of the black gold scandal
Although the Abe faction has always enjoyed power with 99 members, it is the largest faction within the LDP, but in reality, the Abe faction's fundraising capacity is weak. This can be clearly seen by comparing the amount of funds distributed by each faction to members at the end of the year for activities called "ice yo" and "bread yo". According to the 2022 (Reiwa 4) report on the political fund income and expenditure of each faction, among the five major factions, the Motegi faction, the Kishida faction, the Aso faction, and the Nikai faction distribute about 1 million yen each to the majority of members during the Obon Festival and at the end of the year, respectively, about 1 million yen (about 50,000 yuan) each, totaling about 2 million yen. The Abe faction distributes only about 1 million yen a year in total, which is only half of that of the other factions.
Unlike the Kishida faction, which has been dubbed the LDP's "conservative mainstream," it has a large number of members of parliament who come from bureaucratic backgrounds, and its traditional sponsors are mainly from the financial world. The Motegi faction (Heisei Ken) inherited the tradition of the Tanaka faction and had many "clan councilors" who were well versed in various industries. The influence of the Abe faction, known as the "conservative sidestream", is mainly in the fields of cultural and educational relations and the transportation industry. A series of scandals related to the Abe faction, such as the Moritomo Kake Gakuen issue and the bribery case at the Tokyo Olympics, have highlighted the prominent position of the Abe faction in the fields of culture, education, and sports, and on the other hand, it has also exposed the limitations of the Abe faction's funding channels.
Although the Abe faction became the largest faction during the long administration of Shinzo Abe, most of the faction's members of parliament are Abe's cronies with a weak financial base. Therefore, after Abe's death, the Abe faction, which was under a collective leadership system, established a quota for the sale of tickets to political parties to raise political funds based on factors such as the positions of their faction members in the government and the party, as well as the number of elections, in order to maintain the operation of the faction. As an "encouragement" mechanism, if a member raises more than the quota, the excess is subsidized as a "kickback". It is precisely because of these "kickbacks" that are not registered in accordance with the law that they evade the supervision of financial reporting and are actually transformed into black gold. According to a report by Kyodo News on December 12, "the total amount of 'kickbacks' returned to its members by the Abe faction in the past five years may be as high as 500 million yen (about 24.9 million yuan)." ”
The Tokyo District Prosecutor's Special Investigation Department is expected to cover dozens of people. Five key members of the Abe faction – Takeshi Takagi, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Diet Policy Committee, Koichi Hagiuda, chairman of the Parliamentary Research Council, Hiroshi Seko, secretary general of the House of Councillors, Hirokazu Matsuno, chief cabinet secretary, and Yasunori Nishimura, minister of economy, trade and industry – have all been accused of receiving kickbacks. The hesitation and ambiguity of Abe's response to media inquiries have heightened public skepticism about political transparency. The crisis of the Abe faction has now become a symbol of the lack of transparency and responsibility of the LDP regime as a whole, profoundly shaking the already precarious Fumio Kishida regime.
Whether Fumio Kishida's power scheme can continue the life of the regime is reversed
Since the black gold scandal was exposed, as of December 15, according to FNN's public opinion poll, Fumio Kishida's approval rating has fallen to about 22.5%, the lowest level since he took office, and the disapproval rating is as high as 71.9%. As prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida faces the dual challenge of responding to public pressure and cleaning up internal corruption, while taking into account factional balance to maintain stability within the party. His decisions and personnel adjustments will determine his political fate and the stability of the regime. Fumio Kishida's performance in this turmoil fully demonstrates the power to prolong the life of the regime, which is not only a response to public opinion, but also a careful consideration of the balance of power within the party.
In fact, the illegal sale of tickets to political parties to obtain "kickbacks" is not only a problem for the Abe faction. On November 6, 2022, before the scandal fermented, the Red Flag Shimbun (Weekend Edition) pointed out that "between 2018 and 2020, there were at least 59 cases in which the [LDP] factions did not record their income from political party coupons, totaling 24.22 million yen." In the year that followed, the amount of misdeeds revealed increased dramatically, with the Sankei Shimbun estimating that the Abe faction had billions of yen, the Nikai faction (Shishuaikai) had 370 million yen, the Aso faction (Shikai Kai) had 310 million yen, the Kishida faction (Koikekai) had 160 million yen, and the Motegi faction (Heisei Ken) had 130 million yen in "kickbacks."
Therefore, when the black gold scandal became the focus of public opinion, Fumio Kishida first publicly announced his resignation as chairman of the Kishida faction as soon as possible on December 7 in order to protect his life, and said, "I have a determination to personally stand on the front line and fight for political trust, and I will leave the faction during my tenure as prime minister and president." On December 14, he accepted the resignation of five key members of the Abe faction (Takeshi Takagi, Koichi Hagiuda, Hiroshi Seko, Hirokazu Matsuno, and Yasunori Nishimura), and at the level of vice ministers and administrative officials, the Abe faction will also change the vice minister of the Cabinet Office of Manabu Hotii, vice minister of foreign affairs Iwa Horii, vice minister of science and technology of Aoyama, vice minister of economy, trade and industry of Sakai, vice minister of defense of Miyazawa, and administrative secretary of finance of Sato, a total of six people will also be replaced. It can be said that it is a "purge" to separate the Kishida administration from the Abe faction.
Second, Kishida tried to seek the support of other factions to show the outside world a certain degree of willingness to "de-factionalize". At the same time, the vacant positions of the Abe faction were used to rally other factions to continue to support the regime. In terms of the arrangement of "de-factionalization", former Minister of Justice Takeru Saito, who is not factional, will be appointed Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, non-factional Senator Yoshifumi Zhezhi will be appointed Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Toshiko Abe, who is not factional, will be appointed Vice Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology for the first time as a female politician. In terms of personnel arrangements to win over other factions, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications of the Aso faction, Matsumoto Takeaki, will be the Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tetsushi Sakamoto, former Minister in charge of Regional Promotion of the Moriyama faction, will be the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Makoto Oniki will be the Vice Minister of Defense, and Senator Yoshisuke Kamitsuki of the Motegi faction will be the Vice Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. What is quite interesting is that Lin Fangzheng, who is in the No.2 position of the Kishida faction, is bound to the cabinet and arranged for him to serve as chief cabinet secretary, which is quite likely to prevent Lin from taking the opportunity to take the position, and both glory and loss.
Considering that under such headwinds of public opinion, it is unlikely that the LDP will dissolve the Diet and enter the election. Prime Minister Kishida is desperate to use this incident to completely weaken the Abe faction and extend the regime's life until the end of the LDP's term as president in September 2024. However, the LDP's factional politics have historically been complex. In this factional culture, the distribution of power and resources often relies on fighting and compromise between factions. The Abe faction, as the largest faction in the party, is in the opposition, which means that the Abe faction will operate as a non-mainstream faction in the future, which is undoubtedly a test of the Aso faction and the Kishida faction's fragile alliance based on practical interests. What's more, reform forces such as Taro Kono, Shigeru Ishiba, and Shinjiro Koizumi are on the verge of mobilizing, and it is possible to follow the example of Ichiro Ozawa more than 30 years ago, raise his arms after the "Likulut Incident", promote the reshuffle of power within the party, and hold high the banner of "reform".
Could the "Likulut Incident" in the Reiwa era be an opportunity for reform?
At a press conference on December 13, Kishida repeatedly stressed, "The parties involved and related parties must conduct a review, investigate, and take appropriate countermeasures." Once the facts have been confirmed, the political responsibility must be explained to the people. However, this vague response does not address the specific political actions that will be taken afterwards, and the key is to take substantive precautions, not just explain the facts. Factions are essentially a hotbed of the problem of "golden power". In order for politicians to gain more power, they must maintain greater power within the party, and this requires huge sums of money. Looking back at Japan's post-war political history, it was after the exposure of the "Likulut Incident" in 1988 that the intricate system of "gold power" between the LDP as a whole and large corporations was revealed, which triggered a wave of political reform in Japan.
Against the backdrop of the current black money scandal, there are calls for a revision of the Political Funds Regulation Act even within the ruling party. Keiichi Ishii, secretary general of the Komeito Party, said at a press conference on the 15th, "Next year's regular Diet will place more emphasis on political reform. Other top officials in the Komeito Party also said that the LDP may be negative about lowering the standard for recording ticket prices to less than 200,000 yen, "but there is no choice but to do it." If it is not done, the regime will not be maintained. "This shows support for changing the law.
This scandal is not only a problem for the Abe faction or the Liberal Democratic Party, but also for the Japanese political system. It emphasizes transparency in political funding, clarity in political accountability, and reform of factional political culture. It is worth watching whether this turmoil can lead to a new transformation of political power in Japan during the Reiwa era.
(Wang Pengfei, Lecturer, School of History and Culture, Tianjin Normal University)
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