I've met senior Japanese economic experts in Tokyo, and I can't calm down for a long time...

Ginza, Tokyo (one of the world's top three business models)

Usually, it's actually quite busy.

After all, this is not the era of increments, nor is it the era of exploding wealth.

At the moment, keep money> make money, and conservative > attack.

But my colleague told me that I had made an appointment with a senior Japanese economist who was specially contracted by a TV station, and I looked up his information on the Internet, and I went for it.

I immediately flew to Tokyo and had an in-depth discussion with this senior scholar who can speak Chinese and has been in Japan for 40 years, and I learned a lot.

Landing at Tokyo Haneda Airport

Because, in my mind, there are a lot of doubts, and I want to know the answer from a local perspective in Japan.

Like what

1. With such a sharp depreciation of the yen, isn't the Japanese government in a hurry? Aren't you afraid? Isn't the population panicking?

2. Will the Japanese stock market rise again when it has risen to this point? How to support?

3. The Tokyo property market has risen by more than 15% in the past three years.

4. Are Japanese auto companies really not panicking in the face of the development of China's new energy vehicles? Can you calm down?

5. How can Japan's social welfare be supported? And how is the economy developing?

6. With such a serious aging population and declining birthrate, is this wave of redness in Japan a flash in the pan or sustainable?

Wait, do you have a lot of questions like this?

If you want to know the answer, let's get started.

1

Let's start with the point

In fact, it is not a viewpoint, but a grand view of history.

Standing at an altitude of 100 meters, what you see is the profit and loss of the enterprise, the joys and sorrows of the people, and the ups and downs of bubbles.

Standing at an altitude of 1,000 meters, what you see is a country's macro, economic, industrial, bubble, and policy.

Standing at an altitude of 10,000 meters, what you see is the macro, industry, capital and economy under the changes in the global international pattern.

To understand something, you need to have the ability to stand at an altitude of 10,000 meters and see things.

What is the National Fortune?

The essence of the national fortune is the influx of global industrial capital, the influx of global financial capital, and the formation of the country's national fortune (industrial growth, capital growth, economic growth).

China's economic miracle in the past 30 years is essentially a rare wave of global economic miracle created by the flow of global industrial capital from the United States, Japan, Europe, Taiwan, and South Korea to Chinese mainland in the 90s, and from 2010 onwards, global financial capital has entered China.

There is no industrial capital, only the influx of financial capital, which is unstable and difficult to sustain, because it is difficult to withdraw (factories, production lines) once industrial capital is invested, and it is easy to withdraw financial capital.

Learn about the ups and downs of Hong Kong, Singapore, Iceland and Switzerland.

So, from 2020 to 2023, how is global industrial capital flowing?

Unlike the industrial capital flows of the past 30 years, which used to be a concentrated flock to emerging markets, rushing to cost advantages, this time, there are more geopolitical factors, so you see very clear results.

1. High-tech industries have flowed to the United States and Japan (without Europe), represented by TSMC, Micron and Intel.

2. The low-end industries have flowed to Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Thailand, represented by Apple, Tesla, BYD, Nike, etc.

This is the global trend we see in the next 30 years.

It is very important to highlight the emphasis, bold, and red.

So, what I saw in Japan is.

1. Japan should return to the position of the head goose of the Asian economic geese array.

2. Japan has become a popular choice for funds from developed countries such as Singapore capital, Hong Kong capital, Taiwan capital, American capital, Canada and Norway.

3. Japan should re-enter a medium- and long-term cycle of strong growth.

At this time, we must let go of our emotions, let go of our prejudices, let go of history, and face this reality.

Night in Ueno, Taito Ward

Now, let me talk about the data and the current situation.

2

Itemized Discussion

1. Economy

The Japanese economy is emerging from the impact of the epidemic and entering a very good period of growth.

GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was 4.8%, which is also a very good growth body in the world.

It's fundamentals.

2. Balance of payments

Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) publishes its current income and expenditure by adding together its tourism revenue, trade balance, and "income and expenditure on the first income" due to overseas interest and dividends.

In August this year, the current account surplus reached 2.2797 trillion yen, marking the seventh consecutive month of surplus, and the surplus was about three times that of the same period last year.

Achieving a surplus at the national level for seven consecutive months is an important indicator of the healthy functioning of an economy.

Just like a business, this is called no loss, there is profit.

Like a family, it is called having a net income and growing wealth.

3. Japanese yen

The depreciation of the yen is intuitively understood and felt, and this is a very bad thing.

But if you think about it, why doesn't the Japanese government want to interfere and tolerate such a sharp depreciation of the yen?

The real reason is that the Japanese government and Japanese companies are very happy to see the yen depreciate.

Because Japan is an export-oriented economy, currency depreciation is very beneficial to corporate exports.

Let's say a very visual example.

At the beginning of the year, Toyota's profit forecast was 3 trillion yen.

Toyota's annual profit was revised to 4 trillion yen due to the depreciation of the yen, and Toyota's annual profit increased by 33%.

Toyota's market value has risen sharply, and it has also been strongly boosted by the depreciation of the yen.

The depreciation of the yen, which is a major driver of overseas sales for companies with high overseas sales, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi Electric, has also been the main driver of the upward trend.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun estimated the impact based on the exchange rate sensitivity and expected exchange rates of seven Japanese automotive companies, seven precision equipment companies, three electronics companies, and three heavy industry and machinery companies.

If the current assumption is that the current dollar is about 150 yen per dollar and 160 yen per euro after October, it will generate a profit increase of about 2 trillion yen.

If all other factors remain unchanged, the consolidated operating profit of the target companies in FY2023 is expected to be revised upwards by approximately 2%.

So, we're going to jump out of our latitude to understand the yen.

Although the Japanese government will eventually be unable to resist the pressure to make the yen appreciate, they will enjoy the process.

4. Property market

The property market is the most intuitive projection of an economy.

What you think is that Japanese housing is not speculation, Japanese housing prices are not rising, and Japan's bubble is bursting.

I'm sorry, but housing prices in Tokyo have been rising for nearly 17 years.

In the core 6 wards of Tokyo, in the past 7 years, half of the houses have basically doubled.

Let's talk about second-hand housing first,

According to the average sale price of second-hand houses in August released by the Japanese real estate research company Tokyo on KANTEI9 21, the six districts in the center of Tokyo (Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku, Minato-ku, Shinjuku-ku, Bunkyo-ku, Shibuya Ward) were 104.26 million yen (about 5.1499 million yuan) per 70 square meters, up 0.7% from the previous month.

Against the backdrop of the depreciation of the yen, demand for investment from overseas and other countries remained firm. The price increase of second-hand housing has expanded, setting a new historical record for 7 consecutive months.

Let's talk about new houses,

How exaggerated is the increase in the price of new homes in Tokyo?

50%！！！！

Leaving aside whether there is a bubble or not, let's talk about the phenomenon and data first.

According to a 2022 survey of housing in the Tokyo metropolitan area, such as subway stations, more than 9 percent of the 398 stations surveyed found that the prices of second-hand homes around stations were higher than the prices of the original new homes when they were put on sale.

After entering 2023, if you lock in the 6 wards of central Tokyo (Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku, Minato-ku, Shinjuku-ku, Bunkyo-ku, and Shibuya-ku), there will be many months when the average price of second-hand homes exceeds 100 million yen.

This 150-square-meter building in Chiyoda-ku is priced at 658 million yen

This old house in Ueno, Taito Ward, covers an area of 107 square meters and costs 230 million yen

The residential building next to the University of Tokyo in Bunkyo Ward is priced at 798 million yen

5. High taxes

We know that high taxes are a factor that inhibits the economy, entrepreneurship, and investment.

But, we must also know.

If high taxes are matched by low welfare, this is a vicious circle.

But usually in a benign economy, high taxes must be corresponded to high welfare.

High welfare is also a factor that attracts talent and capital.

So, for Japan, what he needs to do is how to balance high taxes and high welfare, so that this cycle can attract talent and capital around the world in the best state.

Talent and capital can have better returns under this balance.

So, comparative advantage, that word, is important.

This relative advantage, after 2020, continues to exert its advantages.

Because the influx of global talents and capital is a clear proof of this.

6. Kumamoto phenomenon

Finally, let's talk about a classic example of industrial capital, the Kumamoto phenomenon.

As shown in the picture above, Kumamoto was originally an insignificant small city in Japan.

It's a forgotten, declining little city.

Nowadays, the town is getting stuck in traffic.

Nowadays, many large Japanese companies are rushing to Kumamoto to buy land and invest.

Why?

TSMC is coming.

Why choose here?

The map tells you that it is the closest to Taiwan.

Why does a factory cause a traffic jam?

Because this represents the siphon effect of an industrial chain, upstream and downstream, and IP-based industries.

The first phase of the plant is a 12-28nm process, and the Japanese government subsidizes 476 billion yen.

The second phase of the plant is a 6nm process, and the Japanese government subsidizes 600 billion yen.

3

Come to an end

At the end of the inspection, I came back with mixed feelings

Unconsciously, another emotionless and relatively boring article was pulled.

I'm past the age of impulsiveness, and I just calmly look at the data, think, and think about decisions.

The above data and thoughts are what I thought about this trip to Tokyo.

After communicating with this wise scholar, I was still very emotional.

Yes, the lost 30 years of Japan are essentially the 30 years of China's rise.

Yes, the lost 30 years of Japan are essentially the 30 years of industrial capital withdrawing from Japan.

Yes, the lost 30 years of Japan are essentially the 30 years of financial capital withdrawing from Japan.

Today, Japan has returned to the C position of the Asian economy and is siphoning around the world's industries, capital, and talents.

Today, Japan's stock market is back to its highest level in more than 30 years.

In today's Japan, the property market has changed from a buyer's market for the past 30 years to a seller's market.

In today's Japan, we have to adjust our coordinates and re-examine and face it.

On October 23, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a policy speech at the 212th Extraordinary Diet:

Kishida said, "The thought that comes to my mind right now is, 'We must not miss the trend of change and seize it,' and he said, "The most important issue is economic development."

Kishida said that he has positioned the next three years or so as a "period of change" and will focus on supporting continued wage increases and expanding capital investment.

Kishida said that tax cuts will be implemented to strengthen the tax system that is conducive to wage increases. It also proposes preferential tax policies to reduce the burden of investment and production of strategic materials such as semiconductors and batteries. He described the financial capital market as "the foundation of economic activity" and called for reform of the asset management industry.

What is it that he wants to catch this unmissable trend?

It is the redistribution of global industrial capital and financial capital.

He wants to position the next three years as a period of change, what will change?

Industrial subsidies (semiconductors, new energy) to accelerate the introduction of industries and capital.

Tax cuts for businesses and people are used to stimulate consumption, stimulate the economy, and form benign inflation.

Through economic growth and benign inflation, companies are forced to raise wages, so that people's incomes can increase in real terms.

In the end, a virtuous circle of industrial growth, wage growth, consumption growth, rising inflation, and economic growth will be realized.

If this cycle could last for 20 years, I dare not imagine the result.

When I finished talking to the academics.

When I was in Tokyo, I saw this bustling scene.

When I saw the actual changes in the Japanese property market and stock market.

Really, I can't be calm for a long time, I can't let go of it for a long time.

Finally, let's get some so-called dry goods,

5 sentences worth a million as a summary of today's article:

1. Standing at an altitude of 10,000 meters, we can see the opportunities for Japan under the reshuffle and distribution of the global political, economic and industrial structure.

2. Japan stands at the starting point of a new cycle in the current round of high-tech industry inflows, which is different from the past 30 years.

3. According to this, the stock market has moved earlier than the property market, the stock market has returned to a 30-year high, the property market has just entered the seller's market stage from a moderate rise, and new houses have risen sharply, which will drive further changes in second-hand housing.

4. Standing under the new growth cycle of capital inflow, industrial inflow, and new growth, the yen actually depreciated to a 30-year low like.

5. Expected 20+% yen appreciation in the next 1-2 years + 6% appreciation of the core property market in the next 5 years + 4% net rental income in the next 5 years = 70%+ certainty in the next 5 years.

That's all, if you agree, you should scan the code to understand and verify, and if you don't agree, you can just talk nonsense.

The article is finished, and it is already 3500 words, but there is a lot that has not been said.

But it's all in my head, and I want to do a live stream and talk to you about it.

Standing at a moment when the yen is depreciating to a new all-time low.

Standing at the moment of the first year of the start of the Japanese property market.

Standing in the first year of the global industrial reshuffle.

We have more things to talk about, we have more opportunities to discuss, and we have more ideas to collide with.

You don't have to see or leave, only spray with those who are destined.