A full week after the 71-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin officially started his fifth presidential term, the full list of members of the new Russian government, which has attracted much attention, was suddenly released to the public on the night of the 12th. The biggest "highlight" of this list is undoubtedly the movements of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Previously, all kinds of speculation had been rampant.
According to CCTV News, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree on the 12th appointing Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov added information that Shoigu will also be responsible for managing the relevant affairs of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of Russia, and will also serve as deputy chairman of the Russian Arms Industrial Commission. After Shoigu's departure, the new defense minister was chosen by Belousov, who had previously served as first deputy prime minister and had been engaged in economic affairs for a long time. The original position of first deputy prime minister of Belousov was held by Manturov, the former minister of industry and trade.
With the exception of Shoigu, almost all the heads of powerful departments of the Russian government have retained their posts.
In the wake of this series of changes, another high-profile personnel change is the future of Patrushev, who was replaced by Shoigu and is seen as one of the security officials closest to Putin. On the 12th, Putin signed a presidential decree to remove Patrushev from the post of secretary of the Security Council and appoint another person. At present, the palace has not announced its personnel arrangements. In the process of the reshuffle of the new Russian government, Dmitry, the son of Patrushev and the current Minister of Agriculture, has just been nominated as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of agriculture.
According to RIA Novosti, quoted by RIA Novosti, at the meetings of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) on the 13th and 14th, a vote will be held on the candidates for the deputy prime minister and a number of ministers. The heads of the Ministry of Defence, the Federal Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are appointed by the Head of State himself in consultation with the Federation Council (Upper House of Parliament). Consultations will begin on the 13th. Earlier, the Russian State Duma had deliberated and approved Mishustin's nomination for prime minister.
The Russian newspaper "Izvestia", citing high-level sources, said that in the near future, the reshuffle of the top echelons of power will continue, and despite the resignation of Shoigu from the post of defense minister, he will retain some influence in this area. Belousov, who succeeds Shoigu as the new defense minister, will be the second defense minister in Russia's recent history who has not held a senior position in the military or other security agencies (note: the first defense minister without a background in the military or security agencies was Serdyukov, who served as defense minister from 2007 to 2012).
Regarding Russia's "temporary change of commander", a number of scholars analyzed to reporters that Putin's personnel adjustment at the beginning of his new term is in line with legal procedures, and at the same time, it also makes Russian society look forward to Putin's new term. Belousov, who has a background in economics, came to power perhaps to prepare for the prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, help Russia save domestic resources, make military operations sustainable, and at the same time implement development tasks in other areas and consolidate the "big rear". Taking into account the fact that the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Gerasimov is responsible for the situation at the front, and his position has not changed at the moment, the transfer of Shoigu will not have much impact on the situation at the front.
Rumors of a "change of commander" come true, dissatisfied with Shoigu or protective?
Shoigu was transferred from the post of defense minister after more than 800 days of burning war between Russia and Ukraine, a decision that is not without traces. Rumors of possible personnel changes in the Russian defense minister have been circulating since last year. At that time, Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, directly "pointed the sword" at Shoigu and Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, raising questions about the capabilities of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Since the beginning of this year, against the backdrop of Putin's new term of office, discussions on the selection of the new defense minister have become more and more intense. On April 24, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov was detained on suspicion of violating Article 290 of Chapter VI of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on huge bribes (note: the minimum amount of huge bribes is 1 million rubles, about 78,600 yuan). Russian media said that Ivanov's bribery occurred during the implementation of the Russian Ministry of Defense's military contracts and subcontracting work. Since Ivanov is a close confidant of Shoigu, it is widely believed that this may be a big signal that Shoigu may be removed from office.
Shoigu is the longest-serving defense minister in Russian history, and one of the few officials to achieve the rank of general in a short period of time. Alexei Arbatov, director of the Center for International Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that what is now Russia is a country that is only 30 years old, and Shoigu has been in a key position during this period, which means that his work is highly valued by the Russian president.
Shoigu was born in 1955 in the Russian Republic of Tuva. Before entering politics, he worked hard in the civil engineering and construction industry for many years. In 1991, Shoigu, then deputy chairman of the State Committee on Architecture and Construction, was appointed chairman of the State Emergency Committee, the predecessor of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, and participated in the resolution of a number of armed conflicts that broke out in the Caucasus in the 1990s. It was from here that Shoigu gradually grew into one of Russia's most important and powerful departmental leaders. In 2012, Shoigu briefly held the post of governor of the Moscow region. And from November 2012 to 2024, Shoigu has been Russia's defense minister. During his term of office, the Russian armed forces carried out a series of major reforms, rearmed the armed forces, and accelerated the pace of developing new weapons. At the same time, the Russian army also carried out military operations in Crimea, Syria during its tenure, and launched a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine in February 2022.
"In wartime", Russia's "change of commander" will inevitably lead to a lot of speculation. Xiao Bin, an associate researcher at the Central Asia Office of the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that in the Ukrainian crisis, the effect of Shoigu's reforms was not as good as expected.
Zhao Long, a researcher at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said that the main reason for the change of commander may not lie at the front line, but at the rear. At present, Putin's work requirements for the Russian army in military production, equipment supply, and logistics support may be adjusted.
However, in the view of Wan Qingsong, vice president and associate researcher of the Institute of Russian and Eurasian Studies at East China Normal University, Putin may have taken this opportunity to remove Shoigu and put him in a safer position. Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Asia, described Mr. Shoigu on social media as "too big too fail."
Wang Siyu, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Studies at Shanghai Outer Chinese University, also analyzed to reporters that the Ivanov bribery case has had a negative impact on Shoigu's public opinion reputation to a certain extent, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its third year, and the Russian army has not achieved important results that constitute a strategic impact on the battlefield, and the overall front has not undergone qualitative changes since the end of 2022. Under these circumstances, the transfer of Shoigu not only allowed Shoigu to obtain an important post of secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, but actually retained his right to supervise national defense issues, and also saved Shoigu's reputation and influence.
The Security Council of the Russian Federation was established in June 1992 by order of then-President Boris Yeltsin and is the highest decision-making body for Russia's national security. According to a previous report by the Global Times, the security council is chaired by the Russian president, and the secretary is appointed by the president and is directly responsible to the president. Determine the main directions of the strategy for ensuring the security of the Russian Federation, organize the preparation of the general federal program for ensuring national security; advising the President on safeguarding personal, social and national security; Coordination of the implementation of security actions by the federal executive authorities and the executive powers of the federal subjects and the evaluation of the effectiveness of these actions. In addition, the Security Council is entrusted with the functions of deliberating foreign and military policies and bills, and drafting relevant presidential decrees.
From 1992 to 2024, a total of 13 people will serve as secretaries of the Security Council, with Patrushev serving the longest at 16 years. And in January 2020, according to the order signed by Putin, the post of deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation was added, which was held by Medvedev.
It is unclear how much power Shoigu will retain to be responsible for the military and the war, and some analysts say that this role has limited influence because it does not directly control the military or security agencies. In this regard, Wang Siyu said that Shoigu can work conscientiously without interfering in the Kremlin's instructions, and Putin will interact with the new Defense Minister Belousov on the issue of Russia's defense military construction and equipment development and procurement.
Economist defense secretary takes office to prepare for a prolonged conflict?
On the other hand, Belousov, who came from an economic background, became the new defense minister, which surprised many people. Wan Qingsong believes that such a "change of leadership" will help to appease the elite sentiment of various factions internally, balance the interests of the inner circle, and prevent the influence of powerful departments from being too inflated. The arrival of a new minister with an economic background may also be an attempt to change the hardline stance of the past and send a tentative signal of dialogue to the West. However, judging from Putin's recent public speeches, although Russia does not refuse to engage in dialogue with the West, it has not loosened much on the goals of military action.
Born in Moscow in 1959, Belousov worked for many years in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, serving as Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs from 2013 to 2020 and joining the Cabinet of Mishustin in 2020 as First Deputy Prime Minister. Russia's "Kommersant" newspaper reported that during his tenure as first deputy prime minister, Belousov laid the foundation for the structural transformation of Russia's economy under the new crown epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, and also emphasized the concept of "technological sovereignty" to ensure that Russia can rely on its own scientific and technological resources to develop scientific and technological resources.
According to Zhao Long's analysis, judging from the actual experience of the high-level adjustment of the Russian military in the past two years, the main tone is to break with conventions and proceed from the actual needs of the battlefield. When Belousov became defense minister, he had shortcomings in operational planning, but he had his own advantages in the social and economic development of the country as a whole, especially in interdepartmental coordination. This personnel change shows that Putin may pay more attention to the matching and coordination of the defense industry and the country's social and economic development during his new term of office, and serve the brand-new war through the transformation of the country's wartime economy. On the one hand, Gerahimov and other military figures will be given more dominance at the operational level, and at the same time, they will also make use of Belousov's long-term experience in economic circles to give full play to Russia's comparative advantages in military manufacturing, economic potential, and comprehensive national strength, so as to serve a protracted war.
Peskov explained Putin's proposal for the new defense minister, saying that on the battlefield today, whoever can show more innovations and implement them quickly will win, which is why Putin decided at this stage that the Ministry of Defense will be led by civilian personnel. And Belousov is not just a civilian, but also an official who once led the economic sector very successfully.
"It is very important to integrate the economy of the strong sector into the national economy in order to adapt it to the current development...... The Russian Ministry of Defense must be absolutely open to innovation and the introduction of all advanced ideas to create conditions for economic competitiveness, which is why the president nominated Belousov as defense minister. Peskov also added that the Ministry of Defense welcomes innovation, welcomes the introduction of all advanced ideas, and creates conditions for increasing economic competitiveness.
Wang Siyu told reporters that in the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still deadlocked, Putin must prepare for the continuation and prolongation of the next conflict, so whether the defense minister can continue to implement the Kremlin's directives 100% is the most important. The Minister of Defense is not responsible for commanding operations, but is responsible for national defense construction and equipment development and procurement, and a person who understands economics may be more suitable for this position in wartime. The current personnel changes will not affect the situation of the war, and the person in charge of the front-line situation is the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, that is, Gerasimov.
It is worth noting that in this personnel change, Minister of Industry Manturov was appointed as the first deputy prime minister of Russia. In the eyes of the outside world, this decision also reflects the importance that the Russian leadership attaches to the development of the military-industrial complex, as well as technological development.
Shortly after his official inauguration, Putin approved Russia's National Development Goals for the period up to 2030 and the future until 2036, which emphasize the protection of the population, the promotion of health, the improvement of public welfare, the support of families, the achievement of sustainable economic development and technological leadership. In this development plan, Russia has set "technological leadership" as a national goal, and plans that by 2030, at least 80% of Russia's key industry organizations should switch to Russian software systems in systems that support key production and management processes.
Wan Qingsong said that the focus of Putin's work in the past two years has been on technological sovereignty and economic sovereignty. Considering that economic development depends on technology, coupled with Russia's ongoing military operations and facing technological bottlenecks in the West, technological sovereignty may be even more critical for Russia. In the future, how to create a "supply-oriented" economy in the face of a severe external situation will become a key task for the government. The new round of personnel changes in the Russian government is precisely the need to face the future and adapt to internal and external changes.
As the costs of war rise, Putin's government has begun efforts to increase revenues, including plans to overhaul the country's tax system. This year, almost a third of the budget of the Russian Federation is spent on defense, which is a significant increase over previous years. The government's massive spending on the military has boosted Russia's economy, but it has also increased the risk of overheating as labor constraints push up wages and inflation.
Wang Siyu believes that Putin's series of personnel appointments are to prepare for the prolongation of the conflict (maybe 5-10 years), to further squeeze the production capacity of Russia's defense economy under the current situation of Russia's defense economy is tight, and at the same time to eliminate the negative impact of possible inefficiency and corruption in defense production.
What does the new cabinet list mean?
As for the "long overdue" list of the new government's prime minister and cabinet, according to Caixin, the list was originally planned to be announced on May 7, the day of Putin's inauguration, but the list was not officially submitted until May 10, the day the Russian State Duma held a voting meeting on the prime minister. The full list was not finally released until the night of May 12.
"Reference News" quoted RIA Novosti reported on May 12 that Alexander Zhukov, first deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), told reporters that all committees of the State Duma agreed to the candidate for cabinet ministers nominated by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He emphasised that the candidate had demonstrated absolute competence and had a clear and unambiguous understanding of what he was going to do in his new role.
Regarding this new list, Zhao Long believes that the focus of Russia's strategic arrangement in the future is to promote the transformation of Russia's economic, social, political, and security power structure and overall mechanism to a wartime state.
The independent Russian media pointed out that in the list of civilian ministers submitted to the Duma for approval, except for Belousov, there were no major surprises. After Belousov left the post of first deputy prime minister, his responsibility for economic policy has been replaced by two other deputy prime ministers, one of whom is Novak, who is responsible for energy affairs, and the other is Manturov, who has also been deputy prime minister and minister of industry and trade since 2023.
Vakulenko, an expert at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, believes that Novak has been in charge of Russia's energy industry since 2012, successively serving as energy minister and deputy prime minister, calm, capable, not involved in any scandals, and good at negotiation, as evidenced by the OPEC+ oil deal. This has given Novak a good reputation for himself, and the Russian oil industry under his leadership is dealing with sanctions and circumventing price caps. Mr. Vakurenko said Novak was "long overdue."
Manturov, who is under Sergei Chemezov, the chief executive of Russia's state technology group Rostec, seems to be in a position that is becoming more and more secure judging by the personnel changes in the government. During the war, in addition to the defense industry and import substitution, another important part of Manturov's work was to supervise the sale of assets of foreign companies in Russia. Now, Manturov has been nominated as first deputy prime minister, while Alikhanov, the governor of the Kaliningrad region, another of Chemezov's subordinates, will take over as minister of industry and trade.
The independent Russian media also noted that several appointments in this personnel change are related to Putin's cronies. Among them, Dmitry Patrushev, the son of Patrushev and Minister of Agriculture, was promoted to deputy prime minister, and his deputy will succeed him as minister. Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Putin's good friend Yuri Kovalchuk, was appointed head of the Audit Agency, a position that has been legally vacant since the end of 2022. In addition, the governor of the Kemerovo region, Sergei Tsyverev, who is the husband of Anna Loginova, who is allegedly Putin's cousin, will take up the post of energy minister.
Source: The Paper
Author: Hou Danwei Wang Yunwei
Process edit: u060
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