Recently, the Japanese side announced that starting from the 14th of this month, the Chinese military delegation will pay a week-long visit to Japan. During this period, the Chinese military delegation will visit the bases of the Japanese Air and Maritime Self-Defense Forces, in addition to holding exchanges with officers at the school level with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Against the backdrop of the United States and Japan's growing alliance, it is not uncommon for China and Japan to have such military exchanges. #军史观察团#
The U.S. Army's Pacific Command has previously announced that it plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, which is expected to be completed by the end of this year. But surprisingly, the first stop for the United States to implement this plan was not Japan, South Korea, or Australia, but the Philippines. However, considering that the United States is currently actively promoting the expansion of military organizations such as AUKUS to Asia-Pacific countries, it is basically unlikely that the deployment of US intermediate-range missiles will stop at the Philippines.
Based on this background, China and Russia have successively lodged solemn protests against the implementation of this plan by the United States. Among them, the reaction of the Russian side was particularly strong. In addition to stressing that Russia will take some necessary measures, including nuclear deterrence, to deal with such security threats, a few days ago, Russian Ambassador to Japan Nozdelev even hit Japan by name, saying that Russia will take countermeasures against the military threats of the United States and Japan.
Therefore, we speculate that Japan's invitation to the Chinese military at this time is probably because it realizes that the situation is not good. Put simply, if the United States targets Japan as its next target for deploying medium-range missiles, Japan is likely to face strong countermeasures from China and Russia. It can also be seen from Japan's cautious attitude toward the deployment of medium-range missiles by the United States and its participation in the AUKUS in the past that Japan is not willing to act as a proxy for the United States in the regional confrontation with China and Russia.
It is undeniable that Japan has previously announced its participation in Aukus. But in terms of sensitivity, Japan's participation in the second pillar of AUKUS, which is joint development of hypersonic and other advanced technologies with other countries in the organization, is significantly less sensitive than Japan's permission for the United States to deploy intermediate-range missiles on its territory.
After all, the United Kingdom and Australia, which are members of the Aukus family, hope that the United States can focus more on trilateral cooperation with Britain and Australia, including the development of nuclear submarines for Australia. In other words, the second pillar of AUKUS, which Japan joins, is not a priority for the organization. Moreover, these advanced technologies require significant investment and time. Even if Japan can further strengthen its military power through this organization, it will not be something that will be done in a short time. But the deployment of medium-range missiles by the United States in Japan is different,
Once these missiles are placed on the doorstep of China and Russia, they can immediately pose a threat to China and Russia.
Therefore, while Japan itself is unwilling to deploy US intermediate-range missiles, and has seen strong opposition from China and Russia one after another, Japan has no choice but to find a good way out for itself in order to avoid bearing the brunt of a potential regional conflict. The resumption of military officer exchanges between Japan and China will not only help Japan improve its relations with China, but also enable Japan to use China as a bargaining chip with the United States to a certain extent.
However, it is clear that the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations cannot be achieved overnight. Japan's improper practices in the past on issues such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are in fact the fundamental obstacle to Sino-Japanese exchanges. In a sense, the Chinese military's acceptance of the invitation this time is more like a step for us to correct Japan's diplomatic direction. Unless Japan responds positively to China, the challenges facing the relationship between the two countries will only become more severe.
According to some sources, the China-Japan-ROK summit will be held in late May this year. Both Japan and South Korea have previously shown urgency for the summit. For example, South Korea's foreign minister recently visited China to coordinate the summit. Japan's invitation to the Chinese military to visit the China-Japan-ROK summit cannot be ruled out as creating favorable conditions for the summit.
Of course, at present, neither South Korea nor Japan has shown enough sincerity to improve relations with China. One detail is that China's cancellation of the military delegation's visit to Japan last year coincided with Japan's insistence on pushing ahead with its plan to discharge nuclear sewage into the sea. If Japan really wants to show its sincerity to China, the most direct and effective way is to stop the discharge of nuclear sewage into the sea. It can be said that Japan's overtures to China at this time are, in the final analysis, compelled by the situation. When Japan defuses the crisis of the United States' deployment of intermediate-range missiles and diverts the attention of the United States and Japan from strengthening its military alliance, Japan may not turn its guns on China again.
In general, we still hope that Japan will not abuse China's goodwill. Whether it is a visit by a Chinese military delegation to Japan or a possible upcoming China-Japan-South Korea summit, Japan needs to respond to China with concrete actions. Otherwise, the Chinese side will only continue to lose confidence in improving relations with Japan. At that time, Japan will probably face enormous challenges in all aspects of its economy and security.