Securities company internal letter disclosure: The economic winter is very long, young people should save as much as possible
The downturn of this economic cycle has not yet arrived, but the Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet.
Just recently, Dingtai Fund sent an open letter to investors, saying that the coming crisis is different from the regional financial crises of 1997 and 2008, but an all-round and indiscriminate blow to the economy.
In this open letter, Dingtai Fund Company said that regardless of the domestic and even the world's political and economic environment, it is facing unprecedented uncertainty, and the global epic economic and even war crisis will inevitably break out in a few years. The reason why human beings are different from animals and will fight to the death is because people have a "heart" and conscience, but throughout the day, the human heart has gradually been lost, on the contrary, the animal side is exposed, as an animal, there is only one way to resolve the conflict.
In the letter, the fund company also said that to cross the trough of this economic cycle, it will have to complete the structural innovation that touches the core, and this process has historically taken at least 5 to 10 years, and it must be accompanied by pain, intensification, darkness, and even violence, and even then, many have ended in failure.
Based on the above, Dingtai Fund Company "solemnly recommends" that all investors redeem all shares of the company's fund. Because the stock market has lost its basis for long-term value investing, our long-term investment strategy based on corporate fundamentals has failed. Finally, there is likely to be a slight rebound in the fourth quarter of this year, and we strive to liquidate all positions at the top, and investors can redeem them at their own discretion.
When I saw the full text of this open letter, I was still very shocked, because such a "conscientious" fund company is rare, especially suggesting that investors redeem all shares of the company's fund, which is like a massage parlor that opens its doors to tell customers not to come for massage in the future.
Just this boldness is enough to kill a number of domestic fund companies in seconds.
Of course, perhaps the most ambitious aspect of the letter is not the recommendation that investors redeem funds, but the fact that structural problems can take 5-10 years and the pain of structural problems themselves.
And this, I don't know if it's the elephant in the room, at least on the surface, there are very few discussions, especially detailed discussions, and this is also worrying.
In addition to the open letter of the fund company, there is also a recent internal letter, the content of which is also worth playing.
This internal letter is from Guosen Securities, and this internal letter also points out that this winter cycle is estimated to be longer, and even gives you some suggestions:
Colleagues with families, must do their own financial planning, live within their means, avoid personal financial problems, young people as much as possible to save.
Study more and improve yourself; Don't be eliminated in this big wave. Investment banking work is still a good choice, I hope everyone should cherish it.
Be strict with yourself and abide by company discipline; Come to the company if you have nothing to do, the environment is very good and there are three meals a day, don't be lazy, don't be idle.
The company will take some measures in the future, such as asking us to lay off employees. The department will not take the initiative to lay off employees, but the company's requirements can only be done according to the standards, each colleague should avoid violations of discipline and regulations, and finally hope that everyone can work together to survive the winter.
Whether it is Dingtai Fund or Guosen Securities, are large companies in the circle, these companies are more sensitive to finance and even the economy, now these two companies, an open letter, an internal letter, are telling everyone that the economic winter is coming, is this singing the economy?
In my opinion, this is certainly not a singing down economy, but an objective picture of what is happening or about to happen.
To put it bluntly, for many people, especially for young people, the economic crisis may have no concept, or they are not aware of the economic crisis, what kind of harm will it cause to themselves, to put it more bluntly, what can the economic crisis have to do with themselves?
Many young people today have no assets, do a job with a decent salary but no future, because there is nothing to lose, naturally they are not afraid of what to lose when the economic crisis comes.
But in fact, looking back at the economic crisis in history, we can find that every time the economic crisis comes, the first to bear the brunt must be young people.
This is not to say that young people have the biggest losses in the economic crisis, and young people have nothing to lose, but it has to be admitted that the volatility and length of the economic cycle will deeply affect young people's views on the future and even their career decisions.
More importantly, in the economic crisis, the young population is largely innocent and "funeral goods".
Taking the Japanese economic crisis as an example, after the bursting of the Japanese real estate bubble and the bursting of the stock market, although the biggest loss was not Japanese young people, but for Japanese young people, they had just witnessed the most prosperous era of Japan's economy and were planning to enter the society to show their ambitions, but found that almost all industries were shrinking, all industries were laying off employees, and all industries were not hiring, which hit young people as you can imagine.
More importantly, for the Japanese middle class, although they have lost the most, some are destitute and some are heavily indebted, they have at least enjoyed the growth of wealth, the pleasure of consumption and material things, and more importantly, the fanaticization of the Japanese middle class has led to the bursting of Japan's economic bubble to some extent.
For young Japanese, they have done nothing but assumed a low-desire society after the bursting of the economic bubble, where the workplace became conservative, companies became rigid, and even venture capital firms were reluctant to provide funds for young people to start businesses.
From this point of view, although young people have done nothing, they have to bear the era of loss of ambition after the economic crisis, and young people cannot exchange their youth and blood for the economic achievements and income of their parents.
Therefore, in the foreseeable future, once the trend of economic crisis is established, the younger generation may be the first to lose its vitality.
In the United States, such people are called hippies; In Japan, such people are called the "Beat Generation" and "abandoned houses", but is the responsibility really borne by young people? Perhaps young people are just carrying the burden for this era.
Returning to our perspective, a consumption downgrade triggered by uncertainty will further exacerbate the potential for economic growth, specifically the CPI and PPI data have been slow for months, which also means that price growth is modest and deflationary market sentiment has been brewing.
In addition, we have not released the consumer confidence index and youth unemployment rate for several months, which confirms that these two data may not be very good.
The real problem is the reality behind the data.
Of course, there are still people who disagree on whether there will be an economic winter, but the problem of resolving the difference is simple: when we say that economic growth slows or even stagnates, crises occur.
So, when you still have different opinions on this issue, you just need to ask yourself, where is the new growth point in the future, is real estate? Or domestic consumption? Or other emerging industries?
When you eliminate all of these, I believe your answer will be clearer.
What are the consequences of a market without growth?
When macro growth begins to stagnate, enterprises will take the lead in price-based competition, compete for a larger market share, and pursue the accumulation of volume with lower profits.
Since the beginning of this year, we have seen the price war of coffee, cars, and even milk tea and other consumer goods, in this process, enterprises will have bankruptcy, when enterprises begin to compete to the white-hot stage, it will inevitably reduce costs, at this time employees will feel pressure, layoffs, salary cuts, longer working hours, from the involution between companies to the involution between employees, this is the second stage.
In the third stage, when employees and enterprises begin to involve, consumption will be further downgraded, because employees' income will be reduced, consumption will be more cautious, and at the same time will lead to a negative cycle in the entire economy.
Eventually, the depression began.
In general, the economic cycle is transmitted step by step according to this logic.
Whether we will end up in such a situation is anyone's guess, but what is certain is that some signs are already happening.
This is a crisis, but it is also a turning point.
For young people, it is not only themselves who need to be tested, but also such an era.
end.
Author: Luo Sir, the workplace reference of the new youth. Concerned about the logic behind the development of things, optimistic pessimists. Follow me and grind up the knowledge to show you.