With nineteen rounds of border talks between China and India, India appears to be actively pursuing dialogue with China without diminishing its ambitions in the border region. Not long ago, China released a new version of the map, and India immediately protested. In the face of this impasse, China has fought on two fronts and actively promoted border negotiations with Bhutan. Recently, Bhutanese Prime Minister Zering revealed the latest progress in border negotiations with China in an interview. He believes that there are actually no major differences between China and Burundi, and that it only takes one more round of negotiations to reach the final demarcation of the border between China and Burundi and complete the three-stage demarcation work. Zering also expressed a desire to establish bilateral relations with China. The three phases refer to written demarcation, physical demarcation and formal delimitation. Zering hopes to see results in his final month in office. In fact, in a media interview in early March this year, Tsering revealed that the border issue between Bhutan and China is close to resolution, and it only takes one or two more negotiations to reach a consensus.
As of the end of May this year, the expert groups of the two countries met for the twelfth time in Thimphu, the capital of Bhutan, to consult on the previously signed memorandum of understanding on the border, after which the two sides agreed to launch the 25th round of border negotiations as soon as possible. This news once again shows that a major breakthrough has been made in the border negotiations between the two countries, and agreement has been reached on key issues, and the results are close at hand.
Bhutan is a relatively small country that may not be familiar to many. Located on the border of China and India, it has a land area of about 38,000 square kilometers and a population of less than 750,000, which is the size of some small counties on the mainland. However, Bhutan's strategic geographical location makes it particularly strategically important, especially in recent years, when it seems to have become a "focal point of contention" between the two countries due to the escalation of border disputes between China and India.
There are three main reasons why India is so nervous. First, India fears that a border agreement between China and Bhutan will pose a threat to India's influence and security interests. India sees Bhutan as its closest ally and a strategic pawn against China. If China retakes the Doklam region, it would threaten the "chicken's neck" in northeast India, a narrow passage connecting mainland India with the northeastern state.
Second, India wants to maintain control over Bhutan and does not want to see Bhutan independent in foreign affairs. Despite the previous amendments to the Permanent Treaty of Peace and Friendship, India continues to exert pressure on Bhutan to interfere in its internal affairs through economic assistance, military training and political influence.
Finally, India is skeptical of China's behavior on the border issue, arguing that China is deliberately provoking border disputes. Although nineteen rounds of the China-India border dialogue have taken place, little progress has been made. India may want to use Bhutan as a bargaining chip to pressure China or negotiate in exchange for more benefits.
However, the smooth resolution of the border issue between China and Bhutan has made India anxious. India fears that if Bhutan reaches a border demarcation agreement with China, India will become the only country with a land territorial dispute with China, which will leave India isolated in the international community. In addition, once China does not establish diplomatic relations, India will lose its control over Bhutan and its "right to protect", and will also lose its strategic advantage over the Siliguri corridor, a key passage connecting India's eastern and western territories. As a result, India may want to improve relations with China to ease tensions between it and Bhutan. For China, this smooth progress can be said to have grasped India's "lifeline".
However, it is important to note that India's influence is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Bhutan's parliamentary approval is also required when the border is drawn, so India still has some room to maneuver. But at least it is certain that Bhutan's prime minister, Tsering, is a pragmatic politician about China, and that India's overtoughness could backfire.