Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
Now the trouble is coming again, the blood of the United States is washing the world, and India is almost unable to hold on. Now that Wall Street conglomerates are shorting India's stock market, will India support the United States next? Under the global economic structure, how long can the hegemony of the US dollar be supported?
As I said two days ago, due to the strong dollar index, the yen, South Korean won, and Vietnamese dong have all depreciated to new heights, and countries have started a currency defense war.
Now India's troubles are coming. That is, the Indian rupee recently fell below 83 against the US dollar, which is also a record low! And it is speculated that the rupee downward trend will continue.
But that's not the problem for India. The most important question is that Wall Street conglomerates are now shorting the Indian stock market and want to completely harvest the Indian economy!
Now the net short position of global funds in Indian equity index futures has soared to 213,200 contracts, a 12-year high! So what is a net short position? That is, at the current point in time, there is more contract to sell the asset than the contract to buy the asset.
Arguably, foreign investors' views on India's stock market have fallen to the most pessimistic level in more than a decade.
Doesn't it mean that the Indian economy is strong? Will India's GDP still grow by 7.8% in 2023? So why are global investors now bearish on the Indian economy?
There are two reasons for this, one is the concern about India's own economy, and the other is to see the rise of China's economy.
Although India's GDP grew by 7.8% last year, its inflation rate is not low. According to India's statistics for April, India's inflation rate has reached 6.95%, hitting a new high for 17 consecutive months. In this way, it seems that the high growth of the Indian economy is piled up with high inflation, which is an inflated performance!
Second, although the Indian stock market has hit new highs in recent years, behind it, 44 of the 183 new listings in India since 2021 are currently trading below the issue price. It is worth mentioning that in 2023 alone, the number of stocks listed in India surpassed that of the Chinese A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.
It's true that even a shell company can be listed on the Indian stock market. It can be said that retail investors have been "harvested" by the Indian stock market! At the beginning of April this year alone, overseas investors withdrew about $4 billion due to the inflated Indian stock market!
To sum up, both the Indian economy and the Indian stock market now have a big bubble. And this phenomenon is the result of Modi's pie for everyone, saying that India will replace China as the new world's factory, and use huge finances to promote infrastructure construction.
However, the attitude of "India earns money and India spends" towards foreign investment, as well as the low efficiency of Indian workers, and the support of China's industrial chain, it can be said that Modi's dream is very beautiful, but the reality is very cruel. Now global investors have seen Modi's routine clearly, that is, the Indian economy is likely to be unable to support Adou!
In addition, Modi has been cooperating with the United States' "Indo-Pacific strategy" and constantly provoking China. In this round of Sino-US game, the economy can be said to be as stable as a rock, and even rising rapidly. On the contrary, due to the economic crisis in the United States and the bottomless harvest of the dollar, some allies and younger brothers of the United States, such as France, Germany, and South Korea, are now moving closer to China.
Modi has always stepped on two boats before, but now Modi's pro-American attitude has made global investors see the crisis in India. It can be said that in the global term, India's economy is "blowing nonsense as soon as you let go, and rolling your eyes when you get stuck in your neck".
With Modi's current economic strategy, it is only natural that global investors are bearish on the Indian economy.
Finally, let's talk about how long the hegemony of the dollar can be sustained if the United States continues to harvest without a bottom line?
In fact, in this round of Sino-US games, the United States harvested Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, which was also incidental. In other words, even if Japan, South Korea, and India become less and less dependent on the US economy, it will not affect the global hegemony of the dollar.
Because we must know that the reason why the US dollar can dominate the world is because before, Middle Eastern countries and Russia were able to provide it with global core resources, and China is the world's largest manufacturing country, which can continuously deliver goods to the world, and the United States itself is the world's largest financial country.
The United States prints dollars to buy goods all over the world, and after getting dollars, countries around the world will buy oil from the Middle East and Russia, and the Middle East and Russia, after getting dollars, will save to the Federal Reserve to buy US Treasury bonds.
It can be said that in the past few decades, under this economic order, everyone has been at peace, and the dollar system has been able to create a financial closed loop and continuously harvest the wealth of other countries. But now the United States is harvesting the whole world without a bottom line, offending several very important countries.
Russia has broken away from the dollar system, and the countries of the Middle East are now getting farther and farther away from the United States because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. As far as China is concerned, the United States is engaged in decoupling and breaking the chain, and now it wants China's high-quality and low-cost goods, but also tries to restrict China's development. The point is that the United States has offended the whole world because of this, and now even its own younger brothers are betraying their relatives in public.
Let's not talk about what's next for the U.S. economy? Let's just say that after the dollar loses the two core elements that maintain global hegemony, energy and commodities, what will be left? Some people in the industry said that the US dollar will eventually become a second-rate currency, that is, a regional currency.
So will India, under the bottomless harvest of the United States, finally fall into the arms of China like Germany, France, and South Korea?
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!