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Under the sharp gaze of British satellites, the Wagner Group in Belarus is no longer hiding, and the exact location of the camp is revealed. Under satellite footage, rows of military barracks and neat arrays of equipment are clearly visible.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense claims that members of the Wagner Group are intensively training the Belarusian territorial defense forces near the town of Osipovich, covering tactical maneuvers, firearms specialty, military engineering and first aid.
The movements of the Wagner Group have also aroused a high degree of vigilance on all sides. Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki warned that Wagner mercenaries were advancing toward the Suwałki corridor, the weakest NATO defense line, a narrow strip that connects Belarus with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Once the Suwałki corridor falls into Wagner's hands, it will fundamentally change the entire war situation.
This is a full-fledged strategic game. The so-called "bullying group" led by the United States and other countries has frequently sanctioned Russia, and in the era of global interaction, isolation will become a dilemma. But Russia is not a weak and deceitful person, she is a brave and wild bear, not only in Georgia, Syria and other places, but even seized Crimea in one fell swoop, setting off the Ukrainian crisis.
Lithuania added the Kaliningrad region to the list of prohibited transits, which led to a shortage of supplies for the Kaliningrad enclave. At this critical juncture, Russia may solve the problem by doing so, but if the Russian military does it itself, it will face the suppression of NATO's collective defense Article 5. Therefore, Russia sent the Wagner Group in an effort to expand the Wagner Group in Belarus to 40,000 mercenaries by 2024, plus the lean Belarusian field cluster to form a sizable force of 100,000 people to break through the Suvauki corridor.
Not to be outdone, the Polish side has deployed 1 mechanized infantry division and 2 mechanized infantry brigades on the Polish-Belarusian border, and even the first Haimas rocket artillery brigade is stepping up its combat readiness, aiming in the direction of the Wagner Group.
This battle should not be underestimated. Poland's firepower and armor far surpass Ukraine's, and the gap is evident that Poland has nearly 800 Hymas rocket launchers, compared to Ukraine's only 20. In addition, the Polish Air Force's advanced number of fighters is even more staggering, 32 F-35 stealth fighters, 48 F-16 fighters, 48 South Korean FA-50 fighters, and 96 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, will pose an unrivaled air threat.
The air defense and air forces of Belarus pale in comparison and cannot provide effective cover for 100,000 Wagner and Belarusian field groups. If it is a tough confrontation, the Wagner and Belarusian forces are doomed to suffer.
However, Prigozhin is not without countermeasures. Disguised as civilians, the Wagner Group is actively disrupting barbed wire and power grids along the Belarusian-Polish border, using drones to monitor the location of Polish patrols in order to cover the entry of refugees from Africa and the Middle East into countries such as Poland. What is even more unexpected is that the commander of the Wagner Group in Belarus turned out to be a Ukrainian named Sergei Chubuko, codenamed "Pioneer", who joined the Wagner Group in 2017 and served as the field commander of the Bakhmut battlefield, one of the core members of the Wagner Group.
As soon as this news came out, Zelensky probably also had a pain in his heart, but he did not expect that the commander of the Wagner Field Army on the Bakhmut battlefield was actually a Ukrainian.
In this game, the two sides come and go, and the undercurrent is surging. Who can be in this revenge
Who will be the ultimate winner if they take the lead in the miscellaneous chess game?
Prigozhin's cleverness lies in the good use of the surrounding environment to make small and broad. They carried out covert actions, disguised as civilians, and silently dismantled the barbed wire and power grid on the Belarusian-Polish border, successfully providing refuge to the refugees. This makes it difficult for the Polish side to guard against and to detect the true intentions of the other side.
At the same time, the identity of Sergei Chubuko, commander of the Wagner Group, became an ingenious strategy. As a Ukrainian, he had a special place within the Wagner Group and became one of the core members. Such an arrangement would both maintain stability within Wagner and convey the illusion to the outside world that it would be difficult for the enemy to understand their internal structure and movements.
However, the Polish side is not without response. With their powerful military power and advanced weapons and equipment, they put the Wagner Group under pressure. The number and accuracy of the Hymas rocket launcher is jaw-dropping, far exceeding the capabilities of Ukraine. The Polish Air Force has a large advanced fighter group, which not only masters air supremacy, but also provides strong air support for ground forces.
This contest is not only a showdown of firepower, but also a collision of wisdom and strategy. Both sides are looking for each other's flaws and trying to seize opportunities at the most critical moments.
At this moment, the eyes of the world are focused on this battlefield. The international community is also closely following the development of this dispute, and all parties are trying to find possible solutions to avoid further escalation.
Perhaps, this game will eventually be won by one side, but both sides have already shown their strength and will. Whatever the final outcome, it will be an indelible chapter in history and will be celebrated in the times to come. Perhaps, this is also a reminder that peace and stability are precious and need to be protected by our joint efforts.