The ASEAN summit and the series of East Asia Cooperation leaders' meetings have just ended, and I originally thought that after a few days of face-to-face dialogue, the Philippines should temporarily stop in the South China Sea. After all, the South China Sea exercises were also carried out before, and the living materials were also sent to the "beach" warship, and the actions of the Marcos Jr. government can completely block the mouths of the pro-American faction at home, and at the same time send a message to the United States. However, what I did not expect was that less than 48 hours after the Chinese premier spoke at the China-ASEAN summit, the Philippines provoked trouble in the South China Sea.
The Philippines has repeatedly made trouble, and China has persuaded with good words
On September 6, at the 26th China-ASEAN Summit of Leaders, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council of the People's Republic of China delivered a speech, stressing that China and ASEAN are linked by mountains and rivers and are close by blood, and that China is willing to work with ASEAN to practice the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and the purpose of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, and seek common ground while reserving differences and properly handling differences through dialogue and consultation.
Premier Li Qiang's remarks were made to the leaders of all ASEAN countries, especially Philippine President Marcos Jr. On the South China Sea issue, China still prefers to resolve differences through dialogue and consultation. Even in the face of the weak Philippine Navy, China only needs to send a sub-fleet of the South China Sea Fleet to solve the Ren'ai Jiao issue once and for all, but China does not choose to "subdue people with force", but stands on an equal footing and tries to solve the problem through dialogue. The Philippines has repeatedly cried about how the Chinese coast guard "bullied" Philippine ships, but it has never faced up to a question: if the Chinese coast guard really bullies Philippine ships, why can the Philippines still send daily necessities to the "beach" warship?
After that, Premier Li Qiang also mentioned that China unswervingly follows the path of peaceful development and is willing to actively promote consultations with ASEAN countries on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, so as to provide institutional guarantees for building the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.
After the Philippines has repeatedly launched provocations in the waters near Ren'ai Jiao, China is still full of sincerity. This is almost equivalent to telling the Philippines that as long as the demonization on the Ren'ai Jiao issue stops, everyone can still "put aside disputes and develop together" as in the past.
It can be said that as a big country and a dignified five permanent members, China's posture in front of ASEAN and the Philippines has been low enough, and on the premise of not harming China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, China has done its best to give ASEAN and the Philippines enough face.
As soon as the Chinese voice fell, the Philippines broke into Ren'ai Reef again
But how does the Philippines respond to China's goodwill? On the morning of September 8, less than 48 hours after Premier Li Qiang's speech, the Philippines dispatched two coast guard ships and two supply ships to break into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao without China's permission.
It should be noted that since the Philippines "beached" a retired warship on the shoal of Ren'ai Jiao in 1999, China and the Philippines have held many consultations on this matter, and finally reached some consensus. Otherwise, the Philippine warship "sitting on the beach" on the shoal of Ren'ai Jiao would have become a "ghost ship" long ago.
However, since Marcos Jr. came to power, the Philippines has not been satisfied with only transporting daily necessities, and does not want to continue to send applications and notices to China. Perhaps in the eyes of Marcos Jr., Ren'ai Reef is the territory controlled by the Philippines, why is it stipulated by China to send only daily necessities? Why do I need to report to China before sending supplies?
So, with the support of the United States, the Philippines began to test China in the waters of Ren'ai Jiao. First, on August 5, Philippine ships illegally carried construction materials and prepared to transport them to the "beach" warship to reinforce the illegal structure. As a result, it was attacked by "blisters" by the Chinese coast guard, and the plan to transport construction materials failed.
On August 22, the Philippines again sent supply ships to trespass into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao without notifying China. Since the Philippine supply ship did not carry construction materials this time, China made temporary special arrangements for the Philippines to transport daily necessities to warships, which can be regarded as giving the Philippines a step down.
However, the restraint of the Chinese coast guard and the premier's speech at the ASEAN summit were seen by the Philippines as a signal that it could "go further" at Ren'ai Jiao: since it is possible to finally transport supplies to warships without saying hello on August 22, can construction materials be transported to warships without saying hello next time, so as to achieve the goal of forever relying on Ren'ai Jiao.
So, there was the scene of September 8. According to the information released by the spokesperson of the China Coast Guard, the Philippines also did not inform the Chinese side in advance of this supply operation, and it is likely to be carrying illegal building materials.
The dishonest little Marcos wanted to learn from Nehru
I thought that Marcos Jr., as the successor promoted by Duterte, would at least continue to maintain China-Philippines relations and avoid unhappiness between the two countries on the South China Sea issue, even if he would not fully continue Duterte's "pro-China and alienating" governing strategy. However, now it seems that Marcos Jr. and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue are completely the same way, both overturning the previous government's position of maintaining a relative balance between China and the United States, and greatly guiding the United States in foreign policy, such as Yoon Seok-yue, in order to cooperate with the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, did not hesitate to sacrifice national dignity on the issue of Japan's colonial history and promote the alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea; Marcos Jr. agreed to lease four military bases from the United States and let the Philippines act as a stepping stone for US intervention in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
After Yin Xiyue and Marcos Jr. came to power, China-ROK relations and Sino-Philippine relations have regressed significantly. Yin Xiyue's father won a scholarship in Japan, and Yin Xiyue lived with his father in Japan for a while when he was a child; Marcos Jr.'s father was a puppet of the United States, and after stepping down due to the coup, Marcos Jr. and his family fled to the United States to take refuge. After the two came to power, they both made a special trip to the United States to visit, and after returning to China, they were busy provoking China; Yin Xiyue talked about the Taiwan issue, Marcos Jr. hyped up the "South China Sea arbitration case", Yin Xiyue helped the US-Japan-ROK alliance take shape, and Marcos Jr. invited US-Japan-Australian warships to the South China Sea to show their muscles. Moon Jae-in and Duterte looked at these two successors, I am afraid that their hearts are mixed, Moon Jae-in is okay, after all, Yoon Seok-yue was not chosen by him, but Marcos Jr. was personally pushed to power by Duterte, but after taking office, he completely denied his own policies, and he has been busy for 6 years. If it weren't for Duterte's knowledge of Marcos Jr., who won a lot of games during the election campaign of Marcos Jr., I am afraid that Marcos Jr. may now have to hold Duterte accountable for his past pro-China pro-China during his administration.
Now the Philippines is like a scoundrel who has not taken advantage enough, and China has always chosen to keep a low profile and exercise restraint on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao from the perspective of the overall situation of the entire South China Sea, but Marcos Jr. regards his own policy as having achieved results. During Duterte's administration, the Philippines basically honestly delivered supplies to warships, and now that the Philippines can deliver daily necessities to the island without prior notice to China, Marcos Jr. naturally believes that his policy is more successful, and is inevitably touted by the pro-American faction in the Philippines.
On the South China Sea issue, China has some disputes with Indonesia and Malaysia, but in recent years, it has ensured the stability of China's relations with these countries through the method of "shelving disputes and joint development", which also proves that this method is feasible in the South China Sea. The Philippines, on the other hand, does not believe in evil, and there are ready-made success stories that he does not learn, but has to learn India in 1962, and Marcos Jr. wants to imitate Nehru.
In the 60s of the last century, India, which pursued a non-aligned policy, was able to obtain military assistance from the Soviet Union and signed a number of strategic cooperation agreements with the United States, which gave Nehru greater ambitions, and even threatened that India could lead Asia to a better future, and the people of Asia were eager to be led by them. China was regarded by Nehru as a stumbling block on the road to rise, of course, Nehru was not arrogant enough to think that "India can annex China", but wanted to win China through border local wars, thereby enhancing India's international prestige. After all, China was able to fight the UN forces all the way back to the 38th parallel in the Korean battlefield in the 50s, and if India defeated China on the battlefield, wouldn't it prove that India could also win the UN forces? In this way, when India says it wants to lead all of Asia, there is no opposition.
So India took the initiative to create an incident on the Sino-Indian border to find an excuse for future attacks. China chose to proceed from the overall situation and repeatedly demonstrated its sincerity in seeking peace in negotiations with India, such as the withdrawal of the People's Liberation Army from the Sino-Indian border area, not exercising within 20 kilometers of the Line of Actual Control, and firing live ammunition. However, like Marcos Jr. today, Nehru saw China's restraint as a sign of weakness, ordering the Indian army to inflict frequent bloodshed and encroachment on Chinese territory along the border. As everyone knows, China was forced to launch a self-defense counterattack against India, sweeping the Indian army in a devastated manner, and Nehru was also greatly devastated, and died of depression in 1964.
Now the Philippines is following the old path that India walked in the past, thinking that it has forced China to make a compromise, but in fact it is gambling with its own national fortune. In order to resolve the South China Sea issue as soon as possible, China has been striving to reach a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea with ASEAN, legally cutting off the black hand of the United States in interfering in the South China Sea issue.
Therefore, before the formal signing of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, China does not want to expand the South China Sea issue, but to minimize disputes with other countries in the South China Sea. The Philippines' choice of this time is also due to China's desire to worsen relations with ASEAN at this stage. In addition, since this time, the United States and Japan have successively sent warships to the South China Sea to embolden the Philippines, and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue has also threatened to "not use force to change the status quo in the South China Sea." The Philippines believes that it has the support of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and has the confidence to bargain with China, but it does not know that the current state of "shelving disputes" is already the most favorable result for the Philippines. Marcos Jr. has repeatedly challenged China's endurance, and the worst result is to force China to abandon the policy of "shelving disputes", if China chooses to "change the status quo" in the South China Sea, which ASEAN country has the ability to stop it? Without the need for the Chinese Navy, the Chinese coast guard can directly dismantle the "beach" warship on Ren'ai Jiao, although Ren'ai Jiao is closer to the Philippines, but the Philippines is also very close to China, after forcing China to change the status quo, did Marcos Jr. think about the consequences?
Perhaps Marcos Jr.'s final card is America's security commitment. However, if the United States has the heart to help the Philippines support itself in the South China Sea, it should start in 2016, when the military gap between China and the United States is much larger than it is now, and the United States has a greater chance of winning, so why delay until 2023?
What the United States wants is to use the provocation of the Philippines to make the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" finally aborted, so that the United States can continue to interfere in the South China Sea issue, as for the issue of helping the Philippines occupy Ren'ai Jiao, it is definitely not in the plan of the United States, at least at this stage, the United States will not use force with China for the sake of an island or reef.
So, there are currently three options in front of Marcos Jr.:
Give up provocations and "put aside disputes and jointly develop" with China in the South China Sea.
Continue to provoke China to use force to change the status quo in the South China Sea.
Try to pull the United States down and trigger a devastating Sino-American war in the South China Sea.
Marcos Jr. should think about it, the United States is not even willing to protect Ukraine, is the Philippines more important than Ukraine? Moreover, Ukraine is still full of martial virtue, even if the United States does not send troops to rescue, it can still fight back and forth with Russia. And the Philippines itself has a few pounds and a couple of taels, Marcos Jr. should know best. The three roads have been placed in front of Marcos Jr., and whether he will become the second Nehru is all between his own thoughts.