The game of great powers affects the trend of the situation in Niger, and external military intervention may make the situation more complicated. Niger, the world's poorest country, has become the focus of public opinion recently, and how the sudden conflict ends has become the most concerned issue for the outside world. It can be said that the causes of this round of tension in Niger are not complicated, and the military coup is the most direct cause. In fact, military coups are common in poor countries such as West Africa. The reason why the situation in Niger has become so interesting this time is the intervention of external forces and the dominance of the big power game. Fifteen West African countries were preparing to form a coalition to intervene, France also threatened to send troops, and Wagner had actually entered the war.
The Nigerien military made a commitment to keep former President Mohamed Bazoum safe and worked to win the understanding of outside forces. France's threat to send troops, the United States had previously issued warnings, and the West African coalition was ready to intervene, which made the Nigerien military government also feel the pressure. Against the backdrop of external military forces preparing to intervene, the Nigerien military began to respond. The Global Times quoted Agence France-Presse as saying on August 20 that Niger's military-appointed prime minister, Lamine Zene Ali Mahman, publicly promised that President Mohammed Bazoum, who was overthrown in the July 26 coup, would not be harmed. It is reported that since July 26, Bazum, his wife and children have been under house arrest at the presidential residence
At the same time, the Nigerien military also promised that the Nigerien coup leader had no intention of cooperating with Russia or with the Kremlin-backed mercenaries of the Wagner Group. The Nigerien military made such a commitment in an apparent attempt to win external understanding and support and to prevent foreign military intervention in Niger. Although the military in Niger is very tough, as the poorest country, its military strength is indeed very average. The Nigerien army has little heavy equipment, and it is okay to create a coup at home, but in the face of a strong military force involving outsiders, it obviously lacks sufficient means to respond. Niger is responding to warnings from the European Union, the United States, France and the West African Community.
More than 1,000 soldiers of the besieged US military are preparing to break through the siege, fearing that their own safety will not be guaranteed after the conflict escalates. For its own geopolitical interests, the United States has built its own military base in Niger and stationed more than 1,000 troops in Niger. The US military base in Niger is not only a surveillance of the poor country of Niger, but also the whole of Africa. After the coup, the Nigerien military and Wagner commandos surrounded the U.S. military base in Niger. Of course, the purpose of the siege of the US military is not to annihilate the US military, but to avoid the direct intervention of the US military in the coup. The U.S. military also knows that even if the base is surrounded, it will not be in danger.
However, with the development of the situation, external military forces are ready to intervene, and the US military also has a premonition of danger and is ready to choose to break through. According to reports, the commander of the US African Air Force publicly said in response to the recent situation that if the situation in Niger changes significantly, the US military will choose to break through and directly withdraw more than 1,000 US troops stationed in Niger. The US military revealed that the United States is working on a breakthrough plan, and once the moment is necessary to evacuate, the US military will break through from drones and anti-terrorist bases in Niger. Obviously, the US military is no longer at ease with its own safety in Niger and has the desire to escape. The U.S. military breakout and withdrawal should not encounter much resistance, because the Nigerien military wants the U.S. military to leave.
Fifteen West African countries want to form a coalition, and five major countries have reached an agreement on troop deployment. The US military UAV base in Niger constantly monitors the situation in Africa, and military deployments in West Africa are under the surveillance of the US military. The US military's desire to break through and withdraw is also a signal that West Africa may be involved. According to reports, the 15-nation coalition of West African countries is being formed, and five of the main countries have agreed on troop contributions. According to reports, five countries, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Guinea-Bissau, have already agreed on troop contributions, and more countries may join the troop contribution team in the later stage.
Most of the equipment owned by five countries, including Nigeria, comes from China, which also makes it very likely that China's equipment will participate in the war. Nigeria is already the largest economic entity in West Africa, with the 30th largest economy in the world. However, Nigeria itself is also in constant internal chaos, and there are often massacres by various tribal forces. As the largest economy in West Africa, Nigeria has a strong appeal within ECOWAS. The equipment purchased by Nigeria mainly comes from China, which is related to China's good relations with Africa and the high quality and low price of equipment. Of course, not only Nigeria, but Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Guinea-Bissau, which have agreed to send troops, also purchase equipment mainly from China.
The five West African countries are using Chinese equipment to enter the war, which is increasingly likely. Nigeria is also the most powerful militarily powerful country in West Africa, but its main equipment is made in China. Nigeria has successively purchased new VT-4 main battle tanks, Mammoth assault vehicles, Changan Industrial CS/VP3 anti-mine anti-ambush vehicles, Rainbow-3A and Rainbow-4B reconnaissance and combat integrated UAVs, Wing Loong 2 reconnaissance and combat integrated UAVs, Puffer A3 small reconnaissance and combat integrated UAVs, ST-1 assault guns, SH-5 105mm vehicle-mounted howitzers, SH-2 122mm vehicle-mounted howitzers and Type 89 armored delivery vehicles.
Senegal has introduced a variety of Chinese equipment such as the VN2 wheeled armored vehicle. Ivory Coast purchased WZ551 armored vehicles, W85 large-caliber machine guns, armed patrol boats and other equipment produced in China. Five West African countries agreed to send troops, and their main equipment came from China. The tanks, artillery, machine guns, drones and other equipment used by the five West African countries are mainly from China. This means that once these five countries enter the war, then China's drones, new tanks, artillery, etc. will all enter the war. It can be said that such a situation is also something we do not want to see.
Although Wagner has strong combat effectiveness, it is difficult to win in the face of the military intervention of the five West African countries. Because of its relative poverty, Niger has a limited army and very poor equipment. According to public data, the Niger army has about 5,300 people, mainly equipped with 35 French AML-20/60 armored reconnaissance vehicles, 90 French AML-90 armored reconnaissance vehicles, 22 French Panhard M3 wheeled transport vehicles, and these equipment are very backward in France. Even the experienced Wagner forces only have light weapons, which is difficult to effectively deal with the military intervention of the five West African countries. Wagner has strong individual combat effectiveness, but the equipment disadvantage is obvious, once the five West African countries intervene, the odds of victory are not great.