"Soybean oil exclusive" soybean oil out of the big wave, all motion sickness

Entering the second half of the year, the volatility of the edible oil market is particularly fierce, and last week's soybean oil futures not only refreshed this year's new high, touched the high range of nearly 10 years, but also almost set the largest one-day decline in the year. On October 21, the Y2201 contract rose as high as 10406 points intraday, and the next day, Y2201 closed down 4.59% to 9806 points. After a day, the futures price of soybean oil fell by about 600 yuan / ton, and the price of packaging oil was 8-12 yuan per piece, which directly fooled the market investors, and the market has picked up in the past two days.

Taking soybean oil as an example combined with the spot market reference, as of noon on October 25, the average spot quotation of first-class soybean oil of major domestic coastal manufacturers was about 10635 yuan / ton, about 10550 yuan / ton in Dalian, about 10600 / ton in Tianjin, about 10630 yuan / ton in Rizhao, about 10650 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, about 10620 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area, and about 150 yuan / ton in various places compared with a week ago. China Grain and Oil Information Network Xin Xianming here to talk about this wave of pulse oil market fluctuations of the speculation theme and future market concerns.

Policy news triggered hedging for funds

On October 21, the deputy director of the Department of Structural Reform of the National Development and Reform Commission said that every effort should be made to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. In the next step, the NDRC will continue to work with relevant departments to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of commodity prices, organize the subsequent batch of national reserve release, take multiple measures to increase market supply, continue to increase the linkage supervision of the spot market, curb excessive speculation and speculation, and maintain normal market order. It is believed that with the landing of a series of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the policy effect will gradually appear, and the operating pressure of downstream enterprises will gradually be reduced.

Due to the huge increase in coal commodities this year has become an obvious commodity, in addition to affecting the cost of power generation, the time is winter, but also affects the people's livelihood heating problem, policy regulation and supervision, so that coal futures continue to fall to a halt, and coincidentally on the 21st, the resource futures went down, but the oil and fat suddenly touched the nearly 10-year high range, attracting market attention, this time node makes investors' hearts hang up. On the 22nd, the continuous oil and fat funds concentrated profit to close the exit from the market to hedge, the futures price rushed up and fell, the low level of Y2201 intraday was nearly 700 points higher than the previous day's high price difference, which also caught spot dealers off guard, and the spot market stopped selling and waited. In addition, there are also rumors that there are rumors of dumping, but they have not been confirmed.

The outer plate oil feed drove the recovery

After the domestic oil and fat sector plummeted in a single day, the speculation of peripheral oilseeds led to a rebound in related oils and fats. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 3.34% month-on-month from 1 to 20 October 2021, of which production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 3.83% month-on-month, production in Sabah decreased by 2.10% month-on-month, production in Sarawak decreased by 3.77% month-on-month, and production in East Malaysia decreased by 2.51% month-on-month.

On October 25, its data from the shipping survey agency showed that the export volume of Ma Palm in the first 25 days of October was 1208722 tons, down 12.1% from the same period last month. The agency's data exports for the first 20 days of October fell 14.7% month-on-month.

Agencies said that horse palm production in October is expected to decline, and the first 25 days of exports have improved from the previous 20 days, boosting horse palm futures and supporting the internal oil.

On Oct. 25, the USDA Weekly Crop Growth Report showed that the U.S. soybean harvest was 73 percent for the week ended October 24, 2021, compared to 60 percent in the previous week, 82 percent in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 70 percent. The progress of the new bean harvest is lower than 74% of the market estimate, and there are monitors that north Dakota soybean production is expected to decline, and the uspan bean oil has recently picked up.

Crude oil prices have continued to rise in recent times, as global supply is tight, analysts generally expect global inventories to continue to fall in the coming months, and fuel demand continues to recover growth, helping to support crude oil prices. On October 25, the New York Stock Exchange's U.S. crude oil hit a new intraday high of $85.41 / barrel this year, and the rise in crude oil prices also boosted related oil and fat commodities at the raw wood level.

In summary, this period of time oil and fat market shocks more and more fierce, 8-9 months, the oil market sideways, the spot market due to the futures price of almost no fluctuations and can not open the spread, need to bid with peers, the spot market is difficult to have profits, and now, oil and fat per day three or four hundred yuan / ton under the amplitude, it is more difficult to operate. After the soybean oil futures price broke through the 10,000-point mark, the middle and downstream buyers believe that the price is high and the procurement is cautious, especially the oil mills in Shandong and the surrounding provinces in the north are limited by the impact of electricity and the start-up is limited, some oil mills restrict the opening and delivery of goods, and the spot market mostly shows the status quo of on-demand mining, and even sometimes it cannot be harvested. At present, the domestic soybean oil supply and demand is basically insufficient in the face of market guidance, spot quotations mostly follow the jump on the disk, and the futures price is affected by the news speculation and capital flow, and the pace of trading is difficult to grasp.

At this stage, the author maintains a wide range shock pattern of high pulse oil, although soybean oil itself lacks direction, but horse palm, crude oil, vegetable oil and other oil varieties K line is still a typical bullish arrangement of the strong trend, oil and fat ideas to maintain as much as possible to meet the low and connect more ideas, not to the formal bearish time, enterprise hedging short orders need to be referred to according to their own strategic cycle. In the short term, the gap above the Y2201 contract is at 10120 points, the short-term opportunity to make up, the gap below is at 9400 points, the lower distance is slightly farther to turn into support and wait for the later replenishment, temporarily look at the 9700-10400 point high box, the box is low to supplement the spot just needed, above 9900 points The author believes that the price is slightly higher, the spot needs to consider transportation turnover and other inconveniences to cash out Cautious participation, futures investors as appropriate swing operations. In the later stage, he paid attention to the changes in high-frequency data such as horse palm exports and inventories, the start-and-stop arrangements under the power curtailment of domestic oil mills, and the export and loading progress of Meixin beans.

The author's ideas do not constitute any investment advice, and readers should refer to them as appropriate in light of their own and surrounding market conditions.

(China Cereals and Oils Information Network Xin Xianming)