What do experts think about the petition about Kazakhstan's withdrawal from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union?
Kazakhstan's largest petition platform alash.online is collecting signatures about the country's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union. Orda.kz asked Kazakh political analysts what the chances of the petition being successful were and whether it should be done.
As of noon on June 12, the petition had 63,895 signatures, of which 59,219 voted in favor and 4,676 against. Signatures began on February 25, 2022 and have become one of the site's most attended petitions, and the number of participants has increased significantly in recent months. At the same time, since former President Nursultan Nazarbayev became the official initiator of Eurasian spatial integration, discussions about the need for an economic union with Russia have been going on for many years.
alash.online a screenshot of the website
The authors of the petition note:
"We demand that the Kazakh authorities withdraw from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union and stop all integration processes with the Russian Federation! Maintain diplomatic and economic relations with the Russian Federation, even if it will cost us the rupture of relations! Otherwise, with any support from Russia, our country will be isolated by the world, like Russia itself. ”
Populism or rational argument?
According to Kazakh political analyst Daniyar Ahimbayev, the wording of the issue itself has a clear anti-Russian tendency.
Daniyar Achimbayev
"It is clear that any document against the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union is directed at the alliance with the Russian Federation," he said. It is a continuation of the extremist approach of trying to support Kazakhstan from complete neutrality to hostility to Russia. ”
Ahimbayev believes that if earlier such rhetoric was beneficial to the West, some began to act directly after the cooling of relations between Ankara and NATO and Erdogan's quarrel with the United States (the US ambassador's meeting with opposition candidate Klığdar Oğlu before the elections was criticized by Erdogan). At the same time, supporters of Kazakhstan's exit from the Eurasian Economic Union use populist methods, focusing only on short-term benefits and paying little attention to the consequences for Kazakhstan.
"Kazakhstan's relations with Russia are governed by geographical and historical factors," he said. Including the coherence of the logistics model: without Kazakhstan, Russia's "North-South" transport corridor would not be established, and if Russia is 'added', Kazakhstan's "East-West" corridor would be more complete. This is what Tokayev expressed at the Moscow summit, about connecting Russia with the Trans-Caspian route. The same goes for Kazakhstan and China. It is not in the interests of Kazakhstan to spoil relations with Russia. ”
Ahimbayev believes that the idea of withdrawing from the alliance with Russia is welcome, but only in certain liberal-thinking and anti-war groups in society, far from the majority.
Another Kazakh political analyst, Gaziz Abishev, agreed with him in an interview.
Gaziz Abishev
"Of course, there are arguments in favor of withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union," he said. There are many examples, due to the 'economies of scale' (lower production costs when combined production) of some processing companies, while Russian companies beat Kazakh competitors because of price and quality, as well as large-scale state subsidies, resulting in the closure of domestic companies. In other words, being in the Eurasian Economic Union reduces Kazakhstan's ability to build long production chains. ”
At the same time, both the initiators and supporters of the petition have forgotten some facts. The author calls Kazakhstan "forced" to join the Eurasian Economic Union, including the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) pipeline, which supplies 80% of Kazakhstan's oil to the world market, as well as the lack of domestic production of a large number of goods needed, as well as agricultural products (these products are sold not only to China and Central Asia, but also through Russian Black Sea ports), as well as plans to transform the northern regions of the country with Russian gas.
"It's one thing not to join, as Uzbekistan is doing, and quite another to withdraw. Such diplomatic action could invite sanctions from Russia. In general, of course, Kazakhstan's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union did not bring some economic miracles. Abishev said.
For his part, Ahimbayev believes that joining the Eurasian Economic Union is justified, since Kazakhstan did not create competitive products for the world market, but joined as a "school" for local producers. At the same time, the initiation and promotion of such petitions is a good sign of the development of civil society. But in Kazakhstan, petitions still do not make much sense to the authorities, since they are not legalized in any way.
On June 9, Putin delivered a speech at a meeting of the CIS and the Eurasian Economic Union in Sochi.
Petitions in Kazakhstan and abroad
Petitions are collective letters signed by ordinary citizens with the aim of drawing the attention of higher and local authorities to certain political, ecological or social issues. In the United States, which has a population of 330 million, if a petition collects more than 100,000 signatures within 2 months, it is automatically forwarded to the president. In Germany, with a population of 80 million, 50,000 signatures would be enough to set up a special petition committee. And in Kazakhstan, with a population of 20 million, logically the threshold for collecting signatures should be lower.
At the same time, Abishev drew attention to technical issues that must be considered in Kazakhstan. He said:
The results of petition votes can often not match the results of polls and referendums. They have their own characteristics. Signatories usually support the position of the petition initiator because the document itself is circulating among the supporters.
There are successful petitions all over the world, even in countries where petitions are not compulsory. For example, in 2016, after a petition, Indonesia began charging for plastic bags; In Thailand, the education minister scrapped a plan to cut rural schools.
By the way, the petition does not seem to be completely useless in Kazakhstan, at least 2 petitions have played a role (although not directly): to change the name of the capital to Astana and to abolish the scrap tax. They did bear fruit, although the law did not mention the will of the people or the petition.
Source: orda.kz
Compile: Vika
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