European China-related polls are very different from those of the United States! More people see China as a partner and refuse to take sides in the event of a conflict

2023-06-09 10:53

Source: Global Times

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"Unlike the Americans, more Europeans see China as a necessary partner, not a competitor or foe. More importantly, if the United States and China have a potential conflict over Taiwan, most Europeans choose to stay out of it. The results of the poll, released June 7 by the European Council on Foreign Relations, were described as "surprising" by the report's authors and many media outlets on both sides of the Atlantic. Time magazine said that this coincided with French President Emmanuel Macron's statement in April that "Europe should not be involved in the Taiwan Strait dispute", although his statement was criticized by some officials of the United States and the European Union at the time. The reality of European public opinion refusing to tie up the US China strategy has frustrated some media, and the US National Review lamented that "Europeans are not reliable allies, and the United States has to hope elsewhere". Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in response to relevant questions on the 8th that China and the EU are two major forces, two markets and two civilizations in a multipolar world, and China-EU relations are rooted in a solid public opinion foundation, extensive common interests, and similar strategic demands. "As the polls show, CEIBS is a partner, not a competitor."

"More Europeans approve of Macron's China policy line"

In April, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reportedly launched a poll of 16,168 respondents in 11 EU countries, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Bulgaria. The investigation report was released on the 7th.

The US media paid great attention to the report. The New York Times said that the European 11 poll showed that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a greater impact on the attitude of Europeans to Russia, with about 64% of respondents viewing Russia as a "competitor" or "enemy", compared with 36% two years ago. Europeans have no doubt about Russia's close relationship with China, but this does not lead them to conclude that Europe should "decouple" from China in the same way as it "decouples" from Russia, the report said. Regarding Europe's relationship with China, the survey shows that European respondents are in many ways more inclined to Macron's engagement strategy with China than European Commission President von der Leyen's tough policy towards China; Most respondents do not believe that China wants to challenge and undermine Europe, nor do they believe in the so-called "democracy versus authoritarian" framework promoted by the Biden administration.

According to Bloomberg, the poll results show that 46% of European respondents believe that China is a "necessary partner" or "an ally who shares interests and values" for their country, of which 43% are the former, 24% consider China a "competitor", 11% consider it an "enemy" and 18% answer "I don't know". "Compared to the 2021 polls, Europeans' views of China have changed surprisingly little compared to the 2021 polls," the report reads. ”

When asked about the prospect of a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, 62 percent of respondents thought their country should remain neutral, 23 percent thought they should support the United States, 10 percent answered that they did not know, and 5 percent chose to support China. Deutsche Welle stressed that even in the countries where the largest number of people (about 30%) chose to support the United States, such as Sweden and Poland, at least half of the respondents chose to remain neutral. Hungary and Bulgaria want neutrality for more than 70%, and Austria for 80% of respondents want their country to remain neutral.

"This position has surprised many people," Radio France Internationale said, but some analysts believe that when a real crisis breaks out, people's mentality may change. France's "Le Monde" commented on the 7th that more than a year after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, most Europeans showed strong realism in the face of geopolitical changes.

The British website iNews said the findings revealed persistent suspicions between European public opinion and the United States. Jana Prielin, one of the report's authors, said: "In a hypothetical conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Europe's close relationship with the United States does not translate into a willingness to support the United States militarily against China. "The main takeaway from our survey is that Europeans want to see the EU become more self-reliant in foreign policy."

"Europeans prefer to stay out of the U.S.-China quarrel"

"Why do most Europeans prefer to stay out of the US-China quarrel", Time magazine said on the 7th, in recent months, US and EU officials have tried to paint a basic united front when talking about China, but their respective people are not. In the United States, a recent Pew Research Center survey showed that 52 percent of Americans see China as a competitor and 38 percent as an enemy.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has repeatedly linked it to the Taiwan issue. Time quoted an interview with Pavel Zeka, another author of the ECFR report, as saying that for Europeans, the two issues are incomparable, "The Taiwan issue is still very abstract for European citizens, the war in Ukraine is actually happening near our borders, we are watching closely, and there is no war in distant Taiwan and there is not much discussion." The New York Times quoted Plelin's comments as saying: "In general, Europeans praise transatlantic relations and see more benefits than risks, but they do not see this as accompanied by obligations and do not consider the Taiwan issue to be related to Ukraine." ”

The US "National Review" website published an article on the 7th that France has a long history of opposing the preferences of Americans and formulating its own path. "If this poll reflects reality, then most Europeans are leaning towards France rather than against it." "Any future conflict with China will require the full attention of the United States, and we cannot rely on unreliable allies — Europeans who have leaders like Macron and want to get rid of the United States, may be such allies," the article said. If it doesn't change their minds, the United States may have to hope elsewhere. ”

The ECFR report concludes that most Europeans believe that a military confrontation between the United States and China is unlikely and are not particularly concerned about Europe's economic interdependence with China. "The prevailing view in almost every country we surveyed is that the risks and benefits of Europe's trade and investment relationship with China are balanced, and no majority in any country believes that Europe's trade with China poses more risks than benefits." But Europeans are wary of specific aspects of China's economic presence, such as whether Chinese companies should be allowed to build and own infrastructure in Europe or buy media, technology companies and football clubs, the report said. In an overall survey of people in 11 countries, only 22 percent of respondents believe the risks to the region's economic relationship with China outweigh the benefits.

The British iNews website said on the 8th that the results of a poll in Europe show that there may be a disconnect between the "hawkish leaders in Brussels" and the wider European public on the issue of China. In two weeks, the European Commission will publish its first EU Principles for Economic Security. At a time of tensions between China and the United States, the EU has sought to define its geopolitical position in the principle. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present the strategy to world leaders at a summit in Brussels on June 29-30.

"Only 8 percent of respondents believe the U.S. will always protect Europe."

The ECFR report said 74 percent of Europeans believe the continent should reduce its military dependence on the United States and invest in its own defense capabilities, with the most support in Hungary, the Netherlands and Germany. Only 8% of European respondents believe that the United States will always protect Europe, so there is no need for Europe to strengthen its own defenses. The contradictions underscore the deep divide between public opinion in Washington and Europe at a time when Europe remains dependent on the United States for support, which could have significant implications for security.

Germany's Berliner Zeitung said former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said at the ECFR annual meeting in Stockholm: "Foreign policy is not determined by polls. Zeka, the ECFR's author, said that in order for Europe to adapt to increasing international competition, European leaders need public support. They cannot govern the people against their will, but they cannot simply obey them. ”

Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times reporter on the 8th that this poll in Europe shows that the recent restart of China-EU relations and the visits of many European leaders to China have produced direct positive effects at the level of public opinion. But at the same time, the poll also highlights the growing differences between Europe's minority political elite and the public's perception of China. Some European political elites like to talk about concepts such as "China challenge" and "the struggle between democracy and autocracy", but for most people, they value the intuitive feelings and practical benefits of exchanges and cooperation with China.

【Global Times special correspondent in France and Germany, Yu Chaofan, Aoki, Global Times special correspondent, Xin Bin, Yu Wen】