Recently, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen visited Guatemala and Belize, during which she "transited" the United States twice. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and the mainland, Guatemala and Belize are the only two remaining "countries with diplomatic relations" between the Taiwan authorities in Central America.
Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the Taiwan authorities have lost nine "countries with diplomatic relations", and more and more countries have begun to draw a line with the Taiwan authorities and establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland. Faced with this situation, Tsai Ing-wen can only forcibly retain the remaining "countries with diplomatic relations".
After Tsai Ing-wen left, Chinese mainland plane came to Central America again. Recently, the team of the Chinese Embassy in Honduras arrived in the capital of Honduras and began preparations for the establishment of an embassy in Honduras.
Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen
Last month, China and Honduras signed a joint communiqué announcing the establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level, and the Honduran Government recognized the one-China principle, announced the severance of "diplomatic relations" with China's Taiwan region, and stopped all official exchanges.
As early as during the presidential election in Honduras, the current president of Honduras, Castro, publicly stated that he would establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland after winning the election. Honduras is one of the least developed countries in Latin America, with a predominantly agricultural and tourism industry base and a very weak industrial base.
Successive governments in Honduras have focused on economic development, hoping to strengthen infrastructure and improve people's livelihood. Chinese mainland rapid economic development in recent years, many countries hope to catch the express train of China's development, and Honduras is no exception.
The current President of Honduras, Fidel Castro
Before the establishment of diplomatic relations, Honduras had established a lot of cooperation with Chinese mainland, Honduras mainly imported machinery, electronic equipment and other products from China, exported coffee, palm oil, and in 2022, the trade volume between China and Hong Kong reached 1.589 billion US dollars.
The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Hong Kong is a matter of course, China is the world's second largest economy with a huge market of 1.4 billion people, and in recent years, China has established extensive cooperation with other countries on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, and has never interfered in the internal affairs of other countries.
After the establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and China, the two countries will carry out more extensive cooperation, and China will drive the development of Honduras. These are all things that the Taiwan authorities cannot give, because the markets of Taiwan and the mainland are not in the same volume.
China and Hong Kong established diplomatic relations
In the past, the Taiwan authorities mainly relied on economic aid to win over those small and medium-sized countries, and simply put, those countries were willing to "establish diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities entirely because they gave them a lot of money. This method has allowed the Taiwan authorities to gain a number of "countries with diplomatic relations," but this method has not lasted long.
Because people's hearts will change, those so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" in the Taiwan region will also make judgments, and if they find that the benefits of cooperation with the mainland are greater than those given by the Taiwan authorities, they will naturally turn to Chinese mainland and draw a clear line with the Taiwan authorities.
In addition to Honduras, Guatemala may also abandon the Taiwan authorities. Although Tsai Ing-wen personally went to Central America to woo Guatemala, while receiving Tsai Ing-wen, the Guatemalan government announced that it would send diplomats to Chinese mainland, possibly to negotiate the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Guatemalan Left Party launches its presidential campaign
Guatemalan politicians also generally support the establishment of diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland, and Guatemalan presidential candidate Pope said that the Guatemalan government should not support China's Taiwan, should respect China's sovereignty, and choose a normal diplomatic direction.
Barrientos, a member of the Weinak political movement in Guatemala, said that Guatemala's failure to establish diplomatic relations with China is unreasonable and restricts itself. This shows that Guatemala may become the next country to "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
With the passage of time, more and more countries have begun to support the one-China principle, which is determined by China's strength. China has become an indispensable member of today's international community, except for a few Western countries, most countries will not provoke Chinese mainland for the sake of the Taiwan authorities.
Guatemala location
In the past few years, the so-called space for international activities of the Taiwan authorities has become smaller and smaller, and not only has it lost a number of "countries with diplomatic relations," but they are not even eligible to participate in international conferences. For example, the World Health Assembly, the DPP authorities have not received an invitation for several years.
The main reason is that Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the "consensus of '92", and in this case, no international organization dares to make a head. If the Taiwan authorities want to gain space for international activities, they can only promote cross-strait reunification as soon as possible, and then the Taiwan authorities can have contacts with other countries and international organizations in the name of their legitimacy.