One of the few "old irons" in Russia, recently there was one missing, that is, Serbia.
The European country Serbia (88,000 square kilometers, population of about 7.2 million), under the leadership of President Vučić, is likely to fall to the West.
Vučić and Putin
The same smaller country, why can't Serbia become North Korea and firmly support Russia?
If Serbia turns to the West, what will be the impact on China?
On March 3, local time, Russia's TASS news agency reported that Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova expressed concern about Serbia's recent support for thousands of large-caliber rockets in Ukraine, hoping that Serbia could clarify the facts to Russia, otherwise it will affect relations between the two countries.
Zakharova was angry
Although, before the official response of the Russian diplomatic service to the matter, Serbian President Vučić had repeatedly reiterated that "weapons have never been supplied to Ukraine", it is clear that this time it is Russia that has caught the evidence.
According to US media reports, thousands of large-caliber rockets produced in Serbia were first sold to a Canadian arms company, which then assisted Ukraine through a third country (Slovakia).
Moreover, the American media also published screenshots of the relevant transport documents for these munitions.
Some netizens must have said that even if it was sold by Serbia, it was transferred to Ukraine by a third-party country, and it has nothing to do with Serbia.
It really matters.
This is because in international arms transactions, as the seller can sell its own arms, at the same time, the contract can clearly stipulate that "no transfer or transfer to a third country is permitted".
For example, when Germany's Leopard 2 tank is sold to countries including Poland, Singapore, Spain, Portugal and other countries, it is clearly stipulated in the contract that "for personal use, it cannot be transferred or transferred to a third country".
Therefore, this time Serbia's support for Ukrainian arms can allow the Russian government to respond personally, which must be conclusive evidence and a certainty.
At present, in response to the response of the Russian government, Serbian Vučić has not yet given an answer.
Russia and Serbia, all along, have a very good relationship.
First of all, the main ethnic groups of the two countries are Slavs, Russia is the East Slavs as the main body, and Serbia is the main body of the Yugoslavs, with a common cultural foundation, belonging to the same lineage;
Secondly, both countries are Orthodox countries, and in the religious atmosphere of Europe dominated by Christianity, the two countries have a natural sense of closeness on the basis of religion.
Christianity and Orthodox Christianity regard each other as "infidels", so, religiously, most countries in Europe somewhat "look down on Orthodox Russia and other countries" and consider them "barbaric and backward"
Orthodox Church, resisted by most of Europe
Finally, both countries were once "red countries", Russia's predecessor was the Soviet Union, Serbia's predecessor was Yugoslavia, both were once important countries in the socialist camp.
At the height of relations between the two countries, when NATO barbarically bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, 200 paratroopers of the Russian army scrambled 7,000 British troops to seize and firmly control Pristina International Airport in Kosovo.
In 2015, Western countries, led by the United States, launched a motion at the United Nations to "condemn Serbia's genocide in Kosovo", which was ultimately vetoed by Russia and did not pass.
Until the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia still firmly supported Serbia on the issue of Kosovo.
200 Russian paratroopers flew to capture Pristina International Airport
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Serbia firmly stood with Russia in the early stage of the war and did not participate in the sanctions against Russia.
However, with Serbia intending to join the EU, Vučić is under increasing pressure from European countries, especially from France, Germany and the United States, and from the current point of view, Vučić is likely to turn to the West.
Serbia is isolated in southern Europe, and with the independence of Montenegro, it has no access to the sea, becoming a completely landlocked country.
Montenegro became independent and Serbia became landlocked
Look at its neighboring countries, 8 neighboring countries, 7 of which are NATO bloc countries. Serbia is a small and weak people, and Russia is now mired in war, and it is impossible to care about it.
Serbia's economy wants to develop, it has always wanted to join the EU for development, and it has been negotiating with the EU.
In the process of negotiations, the EU showed its "fangs".
The EU forced Serbia to follow European countries to sanction Russia, otherwise, EU and other member states will recognize Kosovo as an independent country and withdraw the current EU investment in Serbia.
Kosovo area, Serbia is likely to lose
For Serbia, this trick is a bottom draw, and EU countries are sure that Serbia's economic development is in need of EU funds and technology.
Vučić gradually could not bear such pressure, first in mid-February, Vučić publicly declared that the ban on Serbian citizens joining the Russian Wagner mercenaries was actually a signal to draw a line with Russia.
This time, selling large-caliber rockets to Ukraine, whether "intentional" or "forced", Russia will definitely retaliate in the future, and Russia should no longer support Serbia on the Kosovo issue.
Large-caliber rockets produced in Serbia
Without Russia's support for Kosovo, Serbia will most likely not be able to keep Kosovo, which may be the fate of small countries.
Serbia, somewhat similar to North Korea in Asia, is a weak country and is on the front lines of international political conflicts.
Since the outbreak of the war, North Korea has resolutely stood on the side of supporting Russia, and has not hesitated to sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine, which can be said to be "every time Russia must stand."
North Korea chose such a policy because its national political and economic system is completely independent of Western countries, and the economy is completely "North Korea's internal circulation", and the economic sanctions of Western countries have no effect at all.
Moreover, North Korea supports Russia, receives oil and food aid, and the two countries have a 15-kilometer border connected by trains.
These conditions are not available to Serbia, and in the face of almost all NATO countries around it, it is not surprising that Serbia has turned to the West when Russia is overwhelmed.
Russia's "old iron" has one less, which is, of course, the result of NATO's continuous digging into Russia's corners, and Russia's "circle of friends" will face smaller and smaller risks in the future.
Serbia's tilt to the West also warns China that changes in the international situation are not based on human will.
In the past decade, China has invested a lot in Serbia, amounting to billions of dollars.
For example, China Shandong Expressway Group, the Serbian "Danube Corridor" expressway project;
For example, the first phase (tire) project of the Zrenjanin plant in Serbia, undertaken by CCCC First Company Group;
For example, the Hungary-Serbia railway (Hungary-Serbia) undertaken by China and the Bor copper mine project in Serbia invested by Zijin Mining by China
Vučić injects a vaccine made in China
With the changes in the foreign policy of the Serbian government, I believe that the relevant departments of our government have made perfect measures.
The Russian-Ukrainian war currently does not see a signal to end, but the scope and intensity of the war have signs of continuing to expand, this war will also profoundly change the international political pattern, for many countries, "the team must be rearranged, the position must be re-standing."