With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the global geopolitical situation has entered a new period of turbulence, located in the middle of the Asian continent, connecting the East and the West of Central Asia, is staging a geopolitical game involving many parties, US Secretary of State Blinken rushed to Central Asia before the G20 summit. However, judging from the actions of the Tokayev government, the Central Asian countries have not slowed down cooperation with their key friendly neighbor China because of small mistakes.
Screenshot: Screenshot of Kazakhstani media report
According to Kazakhstan News Agency and other media reports, after the meeting between Tokayev and Blinken, Kazakh Prime Minister Smailov specially met with Chinese Ambassador to Kazakhstan Zhang Xiao on behalf of the Tokayev government, and the two sides had extensive exchanges on trade, investment promotion, energy, agriculture, cross-border water resources utilization and other topics. Smailov stressed that China is an important trading partner of Kazakhstan, and the Kazakh government will strive to increase bilateral trade to $35 billion by 2030 according to the previous concept of the two countries.
Judging from the statements made by China and Kazakhstan after the meeting, the import and export of agricultural products and railway transportation are the key points of this meeting. Smailov expressed to Ambassador Zhang Xiao that Kazakhstan hopes to remove trade barriers and export more agricultural products to China. Ambassador Zhang Xiao said that China is willing to import agricultural products from Kazakhstan, and is also willing to promote railway transportation between the two countries and strengthen inter-regional interaction and partnership. Although the two sides did not discuss security, diplomacy and other matters, combined with the recent diplomatic developments in Central Asia, a geopolitical game involving China, the United States and Russia is unfolding.
Photo: Kazakh Prime Minister Smailov (right) meets with Ambassador Zhang Xiao (left)
Smailov's meeting with Ambassador Zhang Xiao comes after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just concluded his first trip to Central Asia since taking office. During his visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Blinken held a "C5+1" meeting with officials from five Central Asian countries, announcing that he would increase investment and support the Central Asian economic initiative proposed by the United States.
For Blinken's trip, the outside world has a high degree of consensus, all believe that this is an attempt by the United States to strengthen its presence in Central Asia and win over relevant countries, and the Wall Street Journal and other media even directly used "digging the corner of China and Russia" to describe Blinken's trip. Washington will choose to act in Central Asia at this time, on the one hand, out of the global strategy of the United States, wanting to extend its hand to the key region of Central Asia, on the other hand, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the geopolitical situation in this region has further changed, making the United States think that it is possible to make a breakthrough in this direction.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with officials from five Central Asian countries
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, due to historical inertia and other reasons, Kazakhstan and other countries had closer relations with Russia. Russia has also always regarded Central Asia as its "sphere of influence", and through regional organizations led by Russia, such as the CIS, CSTO, and the Eurasian Economic Union, it has exerted efforts in many fields such as economy and security to maintain its regional influence in Central Asia.
Therefore, although the Central Asian countries have launched more or less "de-Russification" campaigns under the influence of political, religious, ethnic and other factors, on the whole, Russia still has an influence in Central Asia that is difficult for other major powers to match.
Russia has always had military bases in Central Asia
However, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries are worried about the strength of Putin's government in geopolitical affairs, and a relatively obvious crack has emerged between Russia and Central Asian countries. To this day, Kazakhstan and other countries have not clearly supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine and recognized the entry of four eastern states into Russia.
More importantly, while the Putin government is using energy as a weapon to try to force concessions from Europe, Central Asian countries are still selling energy to the United States and Europe, causing further turbulence in bilateral relations, and Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, has even withdrawn from the CIS Transnational Monetary Committee agreement. This situation will undoubtedly attract the attention of the West, and before Blinken's trip, the United States and the European Union had sent people to Central Asia many times.
Caption: EU Council President Michel and others also visited Kazakhstan after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war
Naturally, Russia will not sit idly by and watch the Central Asian countries "part ways" with itself. Putin's first foreign visit after the war between Russia and Ukraine was to Central Asia. After Blinken's visit, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin also visited Tajikistan. It can be said that Russia is now trying to mend the rifts and ensure that the Central Asian countries do not fall to the West, and has achieved certain results. Turkmenistan, the only non-CIS country in Central Asia, signed a declaration on deepening partnership with Russia just last June.
While the United States and Russia continue to make efforts in Central Asia, China has not chosen to stay out of the matter and stop deepening its strategic partnership with Central Asian countries. High-level exchanges between China and Central Asia have not been interrupted and have even increased. Not long ago, Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, flew to Europe to attend the Mu'an meeting, stopping in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, and had a brief meeting with the Ukrainian foreign minister at the airport. Key projects related to bilateral economic exchanges, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine railway, have also been put on the agenda.
Caption: Director Wang Yi
These exchanges also reflect that in the context of the deep foundation of cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in the fields of economy, trade, energy and other fields, and the steady improvement of bilateral relations, Kazakhstan and other countries know that as a neighbor they cannot move away and the world's second largest economy today, China is the key external driving factor for the future economic development of Central Asia.
From a series of actions by China, the United States and Russia, the outside world can actually see that as an important hub connecting the East and the West, the geopolitical situation in Central Asia is becoming more and more complex. The five Central Asian countries now show a kind of maintaining close ties with Russia in the security and diplomatic fields while enhancing their independence; At the same time, take the economy as the primary entry point to enhance the partnership with China; Without rejecting the olive branch extended by the United States, it maintains an overall geopolitical pattern with the West.
Economic and trade ties between China and Central Asia are becoming closer
In the context of the turbulent international situation and the ever-changing relations between the United States and Russia, China and the United States, and China and Russia, no one can give an accurate answer to how long this geopolitical situation in Central Asia can be maintained. But Tokayev's handling of Nazarbayev's domestic affairs, as well as his skill in maneuvering the game between China, the United States and Russia, are impressive.
Of course, although the Tokayev government at this stage wants to move between China, the United States and Russia, one thing is difficult to change - that is, in the context of China's increasingly close ties with Central Asia, Kazakhstan and other countries are unlikely to seek distance and turn to the West in an all-round way. The United States will eventually find that some "corners" are "dug" by themselves.