Author| Weinika
Editor| Li Chunhui
After the Spring Festival, the stalls continued to fight each other. The war of words between "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" has intensified, and the two sides have advanced from tearing up the box office, tearing content to tearing capital, and even picking up production costs for each other. (At the content level, Hard Candy Jun has made fair criticisms of the two films, and humbly accepted the criticism of fans on both sides - "Dumplings and Vinegar in the Red River" and "Is the Wandering Earth a Human Tyranny")
Hard Candy Jun is happy to see that the audience can pay attention to such in-depth content of the film industry, because the attention of the public and the pressure of public opinion are the driving force for the development of industry norms. But the outrageous joke is to spread falsely and form a situation where three people become tigers, which is absolutely impossible.
For example, a big V was sued by the "Manjiang Hong" filmmaker, so the production cost of "Manjiang Hong" will not exceed 10 million. And this even caused extensive discussion among netizens and the media, and even star Hu Yanbin participated in this topic - Xiao Hu, you are confused!
In fact, this matter is so outrageous that there is no need for stars to stand in line, and star standing in line is getting darker and darker. Think about it a little, now the cost of the mid-range network is more than 10 million, the head network is even more than 30 million cost, a slightly more exquisite literary film costs 10 million, how can the production cost of "Manjiang Red" be 10 million?
If you want to tear "Manjiang Hong" as the Spring Festival box office champion "De is not worthy", the publicity cost is far greater than the production cost. It is not as unpretentious as "The Wandering Earth 2", and the production cost is far greater than the publicity cost. Yes, it may also be true, but you should talk about basic common sense and do not pursue exaggerated effects too much.
Such a pretentious act of rubbing traffic is completely taking advantage of the public's curiosity about the inside story of the industry and leading innocent people to participate in the war of words. It took half a day to find out that the apricot blossom rain that year was wrong at the beginning.
So, from a reasonable point of view, who is most likely to make money in this year's Spring Festival movie?
Who made money in "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2"?
The outrageous joke of the production cost of 10 million yuan of "Manjiang Hong" can be widely circulated, proving that the masses generally believe that the production fee of a single scene of "Manjiang Hong" is very low, and the capital behind it not only makes money, but also makes huge profits.
From some industry information, it can be seen that "Manjiang Red" makes money for sure, but it may not be the huge profit that the audience thinks. As the seventh producer, Guangguang Media issued an announcement as early as the evening of January 29 that "Manjiang Hong", which had a box office of 2.9 billion in seven days during the Spring Festival, brought the company a revenue of about 63 million yuan to 70 million yuan.
The last time the light predicted revenue so early was "Your Wedding", which proves that "Manjiang Red" really made a lot of money. In addition, the light also seems to be hinting to all shareholders - "Deep Sea" loses, and "Manjiang Red" can earn back.
And backwards, the share of the 2.9 billion box office film is 39.14%, that is, about 1.1 billion. Guangguang announced revenue of about 70 million, and the proportion of investment may be about 6%.
If the final box office of "Manjiang Hong" reaches the predicted 4 billion +, Guangguang should be able to generate hundreds of millions of revenue from "Manjiang Hong", and the net profit is at least tens of millions larger, which is in line with the significance of Guangguang's announcement. According to the calculation that light minus the investment cost can earn tens of millions, Hard Candy Jun guesses that the investment cost of light should be between 10 million and 30 million, and the cost of "Man Jiang Hong" may be 200-500 million.
Making money in "Manjiang Hong" should be a sure thing, but it is just a matter of earning more and earning less. But "The Wandering Earth 2" is not so certain, now accumulating 2.9 billion box office, making money still needs to put a question mark.
Industry theater blogger @ movie box office once posted an article revealing industry sources that the first part of "The Wandering Earth" because of various friendship prices, such as Wu Mengda's 200,000 salary, Wu Jing's zero salary, etc., the production cost plus publicity cost totaled 500 million.
But when the first part became a blockbuster with a box office of 4.6 billion, the second part of which all kinds of investors rushed in, the production cost will naturally not be as stretched as the first one. According to the current market price, the production cost of "The Wandering Earth 2" alone should be more than 500 million.
In addition, China Film disclosed in the materials of the shareholders' meeting in 2022 that the planned total investment of 3 blockbuster films such as "Walking on the Moon Alone" and "The Wandering Earth 2" is 1.72 billion yuan, and on average, each is more than 570 million. What's more, according to the difficulty of visual effects, the investment cost of "The Wandering Earth 2" should be more expensive than that of "Walking on the Moon Alone", and the proportion of investment in "The Wandering Earth 2" should be more.
China Film Material Disclosure
There are mixed opinions in the industry about whether "The Wandering Earth 2" makes money or not. However, judging from the hard promotion of the first roadshow announced by "The Wandering Earth 2" in the post-Spring Festival period, there should be some investors who are not satisfied with the current box office results.
As we all know, the "Wandering Earth 2" project was originally a sweet potato rushed by the capital in the industry, and it was easy for the original funders of such large projects to transfer their shares at a premium and return the capital in advance. Therefore, even if "The Wandering Earth 2" really loses in the end, it is also a loss that is the unjust capital who entered the game later - chasing the goddess or betting on the dark horse, the motivation for the behavior is different, the endowments required are different, and the risks taken are equal.
Who is the biggest winner?
The big winner of this Spring Festival stall is undoubtedly the cat's eye that is also on the cusp of public opinion these days. Although Maoyan only ranks sixth in the list of producers of "Manjiang Red", Maoyan is also the main distribution and main publicity of the film, so it can share other income from the box office.
And the main producer of "Manjiang Hong", Huanxi Media, ranked first and second, has a close relationship with Maoyan. As early as the beginning of 2019, the two companies announced a high-profile strategic cooperation, Maoyan invested 390 million Hong Kong dollars (about 330 million yuan) to subscribe for 8.11% of Huanxi Media's shares, becoming the majority shareholder of Huanxi Media. Therefore, joy makes money, and cat's eye can also share the cup.
And the most direct evidence is that Hard Candy Jun brushed in the circle of friends: on the first day of work after the holiday, Maoyan Entertainment CEO Zheng Zhihao personally sent red envelopes and group photos to the company's employees responsible for publicity. The joy of making money is beyond words.
And Light Media, as a capital father who single-handedly supported Maoyan to grow up, also tasted the sweetness this time.
Previously, Maoyan participated in the Spring Festival big project "Hello, Li Huanying" and "This killer is not very calm", and the light was missed. This time, perhaps because of the close relationship between the light itself and Zhang Yimou - the continuous master control invested in Zhang Yimou's "Sniper" and "Rock Solid", so it is reasonable to participate.
It seems that Zhang Yimou went around in circles, cooperated with the light, and returned to joy, but in fact, they are all in a capital circle bound to each other.
As early as 2018, Huanxi Media was deeply bound to Zhang Yimou: Huanxi offered Zhang Yimou 150 million shares, 100 million creative funds, and favorable conditions for director salary. In exchange for the next 6-10 years, Huanxi and Zhang Yimou will cooperate in three online dramas (one of which can be changed to a film project).
Therefore, Zhang Yimou's return to Huanxi filming this time may be to fulfill the agreement. Think about it carefully, there are so many famous directors bound by Huanxi, Xu Zheng, Ning Hao, Wang Kar-wai, Chen Kexin, Zhang Yibai, Jia Zhangke and so on. They are all saddled with Huanxi's contracts, but they haven't made a film for Huanxi recently.
Hard Candy Jun once discussed why Zhang Yimou fled to the light ("Sue the former golden partner again, is it because Zhang Yimou lacks money?"). Presumably, it may be because Huanxi's financial situation is not optimistic. Huanxi has been losing money since its listing, turning around losses for the first time in 2019 and losing money continuously in 2020-2021.
Just last year, Huanxi Media also tore up with Wang Yichun, a young director who was originally going to cooperate, because of millions of dispute cases. Wang Yichun posted an article reporting Huanxi Media's false tax deduction, and Huanxi later denied it.
It can be seen that Zhang Yimou has an important mission this time. Zhang Yimou has always tended to take the route of non-traffic actors since the double failure of "The Great Wall" at the box office, and the last "Sniper" even used a nearly all-amateur team, and the expression of the narrative did not cater to the market.
But the "Manjiang Hong" in front of me, looking left and right, are all outliers in the recent works of the national teacher. It is very similar to the propositional essay given by capital, carrying a strong demand for money, and ultimately living up to its mission.
The Spring Festival stall has resumed its liveliness, but there are fewer people making money
The only one who can smile as much as the capital behind "Manjiang Red" this year may only be Huaqiang Fangte behind "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core". This year's "Bear Haunted" series box office once again exceeded expectations, and now it is expected to be 1.3 billion, sitting in the third place of the Spring Festival file.
And the other capitals who bravely broke into the Spring Festival stall are a little lonely. In addition to "The Wandering Earth 2" is uncertain, "Nameless", "Deep Sea" and "Exchange Life" have a relatively large probability of losing money at the current box office. In this year's Spring Festival file, only two movies are sure to make money, which is completely different from previous years.
The reason why capital rushed into the Spring Festival file is precisely because the Spring Festival movie loses less and earns more. In the 2022 Spring Festival file, only "Four Seas" is sure to lose, and the investor Guomai Culture issued an announcement that it lost 7-9 million. Other movies "Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake", "This killer is not very calm", "Miracle" and "Sniper" have earned to varying degrees.
And in the 2021 Spring Festival file, only "Sacolyte Order" is sure to lose. Other films, although controversial, were eventually certified by the capital as earned. For example, Huace's "Assassination of a Novelist" with a box office of 1 billion, "New God List: Nezha Reborn" with a box office of 450 million, and "The Crowd" with a box office of 700 million.
Among all the Spring Festival films this year, "Exchange Life" should be the lightest film, and the cost may be lower than other films. But as a Spring Festival movie, it is necessary to invest a considerable publicity price. How to calculate, the box office of 300 million is also difficult to return.
Hard Candy Jun originally thought that "Exchange Life" could become a comedy dark horse with a small and broad this year, but the reputation was too poor, and the capital behind it did not seem to try to struggle a bit, and made a difference in the post-Spring Festival file. After the blockbuster movie "Hello, Li Huanying", Ruyi was ruthlessly planted in the Spring Festival file.
In this way, this year's Spring Festival stall is indeed lively, but the odds may be the highest in history. Bona also overturned for the first time on the patriotic theme he was good at, as the last part of China's victory trilogy, Yu Dong personally revealed at the roadshow that "Nameless" invested more than 300 million yuan. At present, it has sold 700 million box office, and there is a high probability of losing money.
"Nameless" currently predicts a box office of 800 million, which is similar to the predicted box office of "Deep Sea". But the directors of the two films, Cheng Er and Tian Xiaopeng, are still working hard to promote it, and if they work hard in the later stage, there is still a possibility that both films will return to their roots.
In any case, Hard Candy Jun still hopes that this year's Spring Festival stall will not be too bad, so as not to hit the morale that is hard to recover. But the contestants of the Spring Festival file may also need to take this opportunity to re-examine the Spring Festival file, what kind of film is suitable for the Spring Festival file.