Spring Festival file in the eyes of capital: from "Manjiang Red" to "Manjiang Green"

Author| Xiao Sanjun

With 129 million moviegoers, the total box office of 6.758 billion yuan, the second highest total box office in the Spring Festival file in Chinese film history. As the first Spring Festival file after the epidemic, this answer sheet inspired many people, and many people in the industry said that "the lively Spring Festival file has finally returned". There are no price increase movie tickets, and high-quality films have released the pent-up demand for watching movies in the past three years this year's Spring Festival.

However, the response from capital markets has been lukewarm. Two days before the opening of the A-share market on the 30th and 31st, the film and television sector dived, "Manjiang Red" was staged in theaters, and "Manjiang Green" was staged in the stock market.

However, the capital market is extremely concerned about the Spring Festival file, and the collective heated discussions of securities companies and the investigation of film and television companies have repeated. More importantly, the Spring Festival stall has become a window for the capital market to observe the extent of China's economic recovery and the vitality of the consumer market. This judgment is based on the following four points:

First, the Spring Festival box office accounts for one-fifth to one-sixth of the annual box office, with more than 100 million moviegoers, and the topic is unparalleled throughout the year, which is the real participation of the whole people;

Second, the Spring Festival file has participated in the most extensive film and television listed companies, which is not only the representative of the strength of China's film industry, but also the most reflected by the capital market;

Third, this year's Spring Festival ticket prices have been reduced compared with previous years, and the topic of discussion is very high, and the movie-watching groups in third- and fourth-tier cities have occupied half of the rivers and mountains, which is very sinking, which represents the depth and breadth of China's consumption power in the post-epidemic era, which is directly related to ordinary people.

Fourth, we found that the Spring Festival box office data by city is highly positively correlated with the city's consumption rebound data, and even indicates the potential of the city in the future.

Back to the film and television industry, the stock price may not reflect the real situation, but the highlighted issues are always worth pondering in the industry. The huge number of moviegoers has pushed up the box office, but the limited schedule time also dooms the winner to only one or two. Every year, a large number of films are crowded in the Spring Festival file, and it is a small number of dark horses who become dark horses this year, and this year's Spring Festival file has no dark horses, and the concept of family fun has been tortured again, and those inherent superstitions about the Spring Festival file should also be broken.

Film and television stocks plunged collectively, and the stock price basically fell to the pre-set level

The box office champion of this Spring Festival file is "Manjiang Red", with a total box office of 2.608 billion yuan during the period, which is naturally a huge benefit for the companies involved in the production and distribution of this film. According to Light Media's "About Movies

On January 28, 2023, the Company's operating income from the film ranged from approximately RMB63 million to RMB70 million (there may be errors in the final settlement data).

But the earnings of "Manjiang Red" were not directly reflected in the share price of Light Media, which opened low and traded low on January 30, closing down 9.24%. Today is also in a downward trend, closing down 2.96%. According to the announcement disclosed on the evening of January 30, Bona Film is expected to lose 37 million yuan to 74 million yuan in 2022, the first loss in three years.

In fact, in addition to "Manjiang Red", in the Spring Festival light media also invested and released "Deep Sea", participated in "Exchange Life", but the box office results of both are not satisfactory, especially "Deep Sea", it is rumored that its cost is about 300 million yuan, at least 1 billion yuan box office to preserve the capital, but as of today, the box office of "Deep Sea" has just exceeded 500 million. The market originally had high hopes for this film, and the decline in stock prices may be dragged down by this. In addition, a week before the start of the Spring Festival, the stock price of Light Media showed an upward trend, and the stock price has cashed in a wave, and the stock price decline is also in line with the market law.

China Film is the biggest winner of this Spring Festival file, with seven major films produced or distributed by Chinese films, of which "The Wandering Earth 2" is the main production and main release. However, according to the "Chinese Film 2022 Annual Performance Forecast" released on the same day, it is expected to lose 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan in 2022, compared with a profit of 236 million yuan in the same period last year, and as of today's close, the decline is 2.11%.

Bona Film, which produced and released "Nameless", fell 8.21% in the two days of the market. In the pre-sale stage of the Spring Festival file, "Nameless" once led, but after its release, the reputation was not as expected, and the box office revenue was greatly discounted. According to the performance forecast, the loss scale of Guangguang Media in 2022 is as high as 6.3-730 million yuan, but it mainly comes from the provision for impairment of 750 million yuan, and the net profit after exclusion is 20 million yuan - 120 million yuan, but most of the film release plans have been postponed, and its performance is still affected. It can be said that A-share film and television stocks have almost all fallen back to the level at the end of December last year, when each company had not yet set a Spring Festival movie.

Let's look at Hong Kong stocks again, Hong Kong stocks Maoyan Entertainment rose more than 9% a week before the Spring Festival, but after the opening of the A-share market on January 30, it also plunged, falling nearly 9% at the close. It rose today, up 1.55% as of the close, becoming a rare film and television stock to rise in the stock market today, and the other is Wanda Films, which is centered on theaters, which rebounded slightly today.

As the main controller of the Spring Festival box office champion "Manjiang Hong", Huanxi Media's earnings were not reflected in the stock price, but became the largest decline in film and television stocks on the opening day, falling 12.84%, and continued to fall 6.2% today, falling back to the level of mid-January. Ali Pictures, which is also listed on the Hong Kong stock market, also fell for two consecutive days, falling more than 10%, basically falling back to the level of early January.

So why did the stock prices of film and television stocks plunge collectively at the beginning of the year? On the one hand, the order disrupted by the epidemic in the past is being rebuilt, and it will take time for the film and television industry to recover, and the result of 6.7 billion in the Spring Festival file is only recovering rather than reaching a new high, which is still a certain distance from the market's expectation of 7.5 billion. On the other hand, with the end of the Spring Festival, the peak season of cinemas has come to an end, and the market will be in the off-season for a period of time, and the superposition of the two has led to a decline in stock prices.

The only special thing here is Huaqiang Fantawild that produced "Bear Haunted", which rose 7.3% in the two days of the market, although it is not on the main board, but its stable performance every year may be more worthy of the trust of the capital market.

The Spring Festival file carries capital's observation and imagination of the Chinese film market

Accompanied by the growth of the Chinese film box office is the growth of the sinking market, which can be said to be the importance of the Spring Festival file: it is the schedule that can most fully tap the audience. Therefore, the Spring Festival file can best touch the depth of the box office of Chinese movies, and it can also test the viewing preferences of ordinary people.

According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, from 2019 to the present, the number of moviegoers in first- and second-tier cities has gradually declined, while the moviegoers in third- and fourth-tier cities have increased year by year, even if the epidemic has not interrupted the process for three years, until this year, the number of moviegoers in third- and fourth-tier cities has almost reached the level of half of the rivers and mountains.

The movie-watching group is sinking, and the focus of film publicity is also relatively shifting. This year's Spring Festival file "Manjiang Red" counterattacked "The Wandering Earth 2", it can be said that it is precisely because the publicity work in the sinking market is in place. This year's urban white-collar return scale is much larger than in previous years, many people have not returned home for two or three years, the Spring Festival stall just bumped into a large-scale return to their hometown, so this year's Spring Festival stall in the sinking market effect is particularly prominent.

It has become a rule that third- and fourth-tier audiences win box office championships. According to the box office distribution map of "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2", it can be seen that the performance of the two films on the first day of release is similar in first- and second-tier cities, and even third- and fourth-tier cities are between Bozhong. But since the second year of junior high school, the performance of "Manjiang Red" in third- and fourth-tier cities began to grow steadily, quickly opening the gap with "The Wandering Earth 2".

Interestingly, "The Wandering Earth 2" began a national theme roadshow on the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, which will last until the sixteenth day of the new year. The choice of this time coincides with the time when urban white-collar workers who have returned to their hometowns have returned to the big cities to start work, driving the heat through road shows, so that "The Wandering Earth 2" can play a long-tail effect and continue to maintain box office growth outside the Spring Festival file, which should be a new way for "The Wandering Earth 2" to try to win back a game.

This year's Spring Festival stall also superimposed a new meaning, that is, the degree of recovery of China's economic vitality. Since the full liberalization at the end of 2022, most regions have experienced the rapid peak of Omicron, but after "Yangkang", how far can China's economy rebound, the box office of Spring Festival movies can be used as a reference.

The recovery of China's economic vitality throughout the Spring Festival was rapid. According to the consumption data released by the State Administration of Taxation during the Spring Festival holiday, the sales revenue of consumption-related industries nationwide increased by 12.2% year-on-year, an increase of 12.4% over the Spring Festival holiday in 2019, and generally maintained a steady growth trend. Finally, the number of moviegoers in the 2023 Spring Festival file increased by 13.16% year-on-year, and the box office exceeded 1 billion for 5 consecutive days, and there was a rare situation where the box office of the third year of the junior high school reversed and fell in the second day of the junior high school.

Spring Festival stalls cannot be superstitious about family fun,

The movie still has to pick the right schedule

It is said that the Spring Festival file is suitable for family movies, but what kind of movie is considered family fun is still controversial.

Some people say that comedy counts as family fun. Before the Spring Festival file began, there were predictions that "Exchange Life" as a comedy film has quite an advantage in the Spring Festival file and is expected to become a dark horse film, but the performance of "Exchange Life" is not eye-catching, and it failed to get a good reputation on the first day, resulting in its first two box office directly cut, and the arrangement of films went all the way down, and finally won less than 300 million yuan at the box office in the Spring Festival file, and did not become the expected dark horse film.

In fact, the family fun in the Spring Festival file is not completely limited by genre, and comedy elements are only one of the points. Taking this year's Spring Festival box office champion "Manjiang Red" as an example, the main element is suspense, and at the same time with comedy elements, from the lineup, Shen Teng, Yi Yangqianxi, Zhang Yi, Lei Jiayin, Yue Yunpeng... There are actors who are more familiar and loved by the audience, there are also traffic stars, there is no lack of acting skills and topics, plus the director is a top director like Zhang Yimou, under the premise of excellent quality of the film, it can actually be classified as a family fun.

On the contrary, what movies are not suitable for the Spring Festival can also be roughly outlined. Too gloomy tone, sad ending... In short, all the movies that make people feel blocked after watching it are actually not suitable for the Spring Festival file. Like the movie "Four Seas" in the 2022 Spring Festival file, it encountered a large number of bad comments in the public opinion field after its release, so that it eventually affected the box office results, a large part of which is the gray tone of its story and the tragic ending.

This year's Spring Festival file "Deep Sea" involves depression, for many audiences to enjoy such a movie, after watching it, it will be emotionally depressed, which has led to the polarization of the film's reputation. Director Tian Xiaopeng also admitted some of his mistakes in the Douyin live broadcast after the film was released, and took the initiative to take responsibility, saying, "If some problems can be felt in advance, it may not be what it is today." But this problem is to be recognized, it is the problem of the creation itself, and it cannot be blamed on the public's acceptance of the subject matter." Regarding the difficulties faced by the company, the director also told the truth in the live broadcast, "There are indeed some difficulties, and if (the box office of "Deep Sea") recovers some, the company can still maintain its operation."

Another pity movie in the Spring Festival file is "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back". Among all the movies scheduled for the first day of the new year, "Chinese Table Tennis" is the only one to be postponed to the third day of junior high school, and it got 10.2% of the films on the first day of release, surpassing "Nameless", "Deep Sea" and "Exchange Life", ranking fourth, which should be said to be a good start. However, the audience reacted coldly, so much so that it only received less than 30 million yuan at the box office on the day of release. The next day, the arrangement of "Chinese Table Tennis" dropped to 4.5%, and while the film was cut off, the box office on the same day also fell to more than 8 million, even lower than "Avatar 2", which was released for more than a month and accounted for 1% of the films. Therefore, on the night of the next day, the film side issued an announcement, claiming that because "the publicity and distribution team had major mistakes and serious deficiencies in decision-making, preparation, and promotion work, the film fell into a particularly passive situation in the Spring Festival file", and the film was "adjusted to a small-scale screening from the fifth day of the first year, and on February 17, 'Jedi fought back'", in fact, withdrew from the Spring Festival file.

As a sports movie about table tennis, whether it is the mood or theme of the film, "Chinese Table Tennis" is more suitable for the National Day file. The problem with "Nameless" is that the director's personal style is too strong, it is a good author movie, but it does not fit the atmosphere of the Spring Festival file, for many audiences, the story of "Nameless" is somewhat fragmented, and this form is destined to not achieve too high a box office in the Spring Festival file that requires the people of Xialiba.

It can be said that this year's Spring Festival file once again shows with facts that superstition Spring Festival file, superstition family fun is not advisable, good movies still have to choose the right schedule.

Then again, although film and television stocks fell collectively in the first two days of the market, it was after all based on the fact that it had risen several rounds before the Spring Festival.

Back to the industry itself, the box office results of this year's Spring Festival file actually show that the impact of the post-epidemic era is not as great as expected, and the audience after Yangkang has not fled the cinema, and the demand and enthusiasm for watching movies are still there. Although the box office of this Spring Festival movie is slightly lower than the capital market's expectation of 7.5 billion, it still shows the tenacious vitality of China's consumer market.

This is also understandable, after all, the film market that has just come out of the shadow of Omicron is still in the recovery period, coupled with the shortening of the publicity window period caused by the limit fixation, the superposition of factors such as the length of the film is too long, and the box office recovery cannot be achieved overnight.

It can be imagined that as the film market returns to normal, as long as the film management is done well, the schedule publicity is strengthened, and there is no external force to interrupt the normal process, the industry will return to the right track and create glory again, which is just around the corner.