For a long time, the market has been rumored that Apple is holding back a "big move": this product can take over the iPhone, become the next generation of computing platform after the smartphone, and will also be the future of Apple and even the technology industry, it is MR (Mixed Reality) glasses.
MR, which includes both augmented reality and augmented virtuality, refers to a new visual environment created by merging the real and virtual worlds. In the new visual environment, physical and digital objects coexist and interact in real time. It is generally believed that MR refers to mixed reality, that is, the combination of AR augmented reality and VR virtual reality.
Recently, Bloomberg and Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingxi have successively revealed that Apple's first MR mixed reality glasses will be released in March this year. The product may be named Reality One or Reality Pro, and the price will be around $3,000, initially aimed at developers and high-end users.
In terms of hardware, Apple's MR glasses will be equipped with the strongest configuration in the MR glasses field so far: using a self-developed second-generation 5nm process chip manufactured by TSMC, equipped with a high refresh rate 8K display, and equipped with 12-15 cameras to capture the user's facial expressions and movement details. According to Kuo, these hardware require so much power that a 96W power adapter is required. In terms of weight, Guo Mingxi said that Apple's MR glasses will be controlled at 300-400 grams, and there will be a lighter version in the future.
All of the above makes the originally blurry image of Apple MR glasses gradually become clear. Apple MR glasses will greatly improve the computing power of existing MR glasses and the final display effect. However, at a time when it is difficult for smart phones to have breakthrough innovations, there are still many questions that need to be answered whether this glasses can replace the former and become the next generation of terminal computing platforms.
MR glasses, why is it difficult to land
Apple MR glasses network prediction rendering
The industry is no surprise that Apple is developing MR glasses.
In 2017, Apple released ARkit, a development tool for AR. Cook has also repeatedly said in public that AR/MR will become a revolutionary product like smartphones. So since it is such an "explosive" product, why did Apple delay it until 2023? The main reason may be that it is difficult to achieve technical landing of MR glasses.
Compared with the most difficult product recognized in the consumer electronics industry - smart phones, MR glasses have higher hardware configuration requirements. For example, 4K and 8K level resolutions are still in the mainstream 1080P, high-end 2K smartphones, it is still unrealistic specifications, but for MR glasses are not excessive. At the same time, the product space of MR glasses is smaller, and the number and weight of hardware that can be carried are greatly limited.
How to achieve performance beyond smartphones with a smaller product space is a big mountain in front of all manufacturers.
Based on this, the mainstream solution in the industry is to start with chips, because sufficiently advanced chips themselves can achieve stronger computing power and lower energy consumption in less space and weight. But in the field of smart glasses chips, the performance of suppliers obviously did not meet external expectations.
Since 2019, the Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 has been the common standard for chips based on all-in-one headsets based on Android. Among today's most mainstream headsets, the Meta Quest 2, Vive Focus 3, and Pico 4 all use this chip. However, due to the premature release time, and the Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 is an improved product of the smartphone chip Snapdragon 865, the computing power and power consumption performance of the product have a clear upper limit.
For example, ByteDance's latest Pico 4, although the display resolution reached 4320×2160, meeting the external requirements for 4K+ display, but the highest refresh rate can only reach 90Hz, which does not meet the high refresh rate standard of 120Hz expected by the foreign audience, while the earlier Meta Quest 2 and Vive Focus 3 refresh rates are 90Hz and 75Hz respectively. And if it does not meet the standard of 120Hz high refresh rate common in the display field, it will always give people a feeling of not being smooth enough, the sense of immersion is lacking, and it is impossible to show the visual effects brought by movies shot with a high frame rate of 120.
In this regard, industry insiders believe that this may be caused by the fact that the chip computing power of Qualcomm XR2 cannot meet the requirements of high resolution and high refresh rate at the same time.
In terms of power consumption, the current headset glasses products using the Snapdragon XR2 platform generally require fans for active heat dissipation, and in terms of battery life, Meta Quest Pro, HTC VIVE Focus 3, and Pico 4 are all about 2 hours. That is to say, for users to use headlamp glasses to watch a VR football game, the two sides may have to face the dilemma of running out of power when the two sides enter overtime. For most users, battery life performance is still a pain point for headset products.
On October 12, 2022, Qualcomm released a new XR2+ chip, but the new product emphasizes the improvement of power consumption and heat dissipation performance, which is essentially a small revision of XR2, which is difficult to make major changes to the current AR/VR hardware environment.
This also means that due to the lack of independent chips, AR/VR manufacturers are still difficult to achieve better display effects, and lower power consumption brings breakthroughs to the existing hardware pattern, and thus cannot develop killer applications beyond the current experience.
In addition, manufacturers generally have a wait-and-wait mentality for existing products.
Titanium Media previously communicated with a number of AR/VR manufacturers and learned that AR/VR manufacturers have expectations for Apple's MR glasses: on the one hand, Apple has always been the industry leader in product ideas and details, and there are places worth learning and learning; On the other hand, other manufacturers also hope that Apple can help them complete the education of the market and users, and establish the basic understanding of users for this type of product.
What are Apple's chances?
The reason why the industry is so looking forward to Apple Glasses is because manufacturers believe that Apple has the potential to change the status quo of the industry in the field of chips.
First of all, iPhone products have been using A-series chips, and due to the excellent chip design and the use of the most advanced manufacturing processes, computing power and power consumption control have always been the leading level in the mobile phone industry. The game is stable and smooth, and the system does not get stuck for a long time, which is almost everyone's impression of the iPhone.
In 2020, after Apple released the M series computer chips, Apple's chip strength was further recognized by foreign audiences. M series chips use ARM architecture, ARM was recognized as low power consumption in the past but not computing power, only suitable for mobile smartphones and tablets. After Apple released the M series chips, it was found that the ARM series chips for high-load computing are not unfeasible, and compared with the traditional PC X86 architecture chips, it can maintain the advantage of low power consumption in the past.
According to Macworld's tests, ProRes video export tests on the 2021 high-end M1 Max chip MacBook Pro are three times faster than the 2019 Mac Pro with a 28-core Intel Xeon W processor. In daily use, the MacBook using the M series chip has almost no heat, and the cooling fan blade basically does not start, but it can still remain stable and smooth, while the battery life is longer than the MacBook that previously used the Intel chip.
In terms of sales, according to Mercury Research, the share of PCs in the ARM architecture in the first quarter of 2022 was about 11.3%, double from 5.9% a year ago. Dea McCarron, principal analyst at Mercury Research, confirmed that ARM's PC market share growth was largely due to strong sales of Apple's Macs.
At present, Apple has basically completed the action of replacing the whole line of products with self-developed chips, from iPhone to iPad to Mac, the main products from software to core hardware, all in their own hands, so that they can naturally master their own product rhythm, not constrained by chip suppliers.
At present, it is generally believed that on the upcoming MR glasses, Apple will use 1-2 self-developed chips as the support of core computing power. The specific chip prototype may be based on the M series chip used in the current MacBook notebook, but it will be a new chip series optimized for MR application scenarios.
On January 17, 2023, Apple launched a new generation of M2 Pro and M2 Max chips, and some insiders believe that this may be the same series of products as Apple's MR glasses chip. After more than 2 years of market inspection, production line running-in, and production capacity improvement, self-developed chips have approached maturity, and at this time to take out MR glasses, which may be within Apple's plan.
In addition to chips, the software development environment for MR glasses also requires a lot of resources to prepare.
Prior to this, iOS or macOS was a closed system, and developers did not need to go around various app stores, which saved a lot of operating costs. At the same time, developers under Apple's iOS system are also easier to earn money than other platforms, because iPhone users are much higher than Android users' spending power and willingness to pay for software, which is the biggest motivation to support developers. King Honor has revealed that the revenue of its iOS platform accounts for about 6-7% of the total revenue.
At present, Apple is also actively allocating development resources internally. According to Bloomberg, the focus of Apple's engineering team shifted to building the xrOS system for MR glasses, resulting in the iOS 17 update code-named "Dawn" "much smaller than expected."
On the whole, Apple's MR glasses are belated, mainly because the previous chip failed to meet Apple's strict requirements, and secondly, it may also be to buy time for development and content environment construction.
According to IDC data, due to the severe economic environment and the impact of manufacturers' price increases, the global shipments of AR/VR headsets in 2022 were revised down to 9.7 million units, and the total amount of 11.07 million units predicted earlier was reduced by 12.3%, if Apple can release MR glasses products in March as predicted by the outside world, it may be able to improve the entire market.
In the upstream and downstream industry chain, because in many fields such as chips, screens, and power supplies, the AR/VR industry is highly correlated with the mobile phone and PC industries, and the chip module itself is highly versatile. Therefore, Apple's MR glasses-related suppliers will probably also be concentrated in China. And related friends are likely to eat the dividends of Apple's supply chain like the entire smartphone industry now.
(Author |.) Wu Honglei, editor | Rao Xiangyu)