The annual "strongest Spring Festival stall" is coming again, and the smell of gunpowder is getting stronger day by day.
The reason why this word is mentioned almost every year is because the Spring Festival file does play a pivotal role in the Chinese film market, and head projects, head creators, and head resources will fight here. Taking 2022 as an example, there will be a total of 30 billion yuan at the box office throughout the year, of which 10.3 billion yuan will be produced in Spring Festival films, accounting for one-third, and no one will take this schedule lightly.
The 2023 Spring Festival file has been officially announced for 7 films: "The Wandering Earth 2", "Manjiang Red", "Deep Sea", "Nameless", "Exchange Life", "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back", "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core", and other films are still considering whether to join. Last night, some media made a fuss, mistakenly writing "The King of the Long Sky" for release during the Spring Festival, which caused another uproar.
After this year's Spring Festival scuffle, who will have the last laugh, who will become a dark horse, and who will become cannon fodder? Director, starring, publicity, distribution, audience, fans... Who influences the box office more?
Recently, Entertainment Studio chatted with three veterans who have been specializing in the observation and research of the Chinese film market for many years, and have also participated in several fields such as investment, marketing, distribution or screening, to chat their views on this year's Spring Festival file. They are Zhu Yuqing, founder of Juyinghui, box office analyst @pocket filmjun, and theatrical movie blogger @cinema film database, which may provide some different perspectives for everyone.
Among the 7 films currently scheduled for the Spring Festival, 3 were all renamed from last year's "National Day File Five Tigers", and one of the five tigers is "The King of the Long Sky" that also considered the Spring Festival file. In recent years, the National Day file has strengthened the main theme color, which is more difficult for commercial and entertaining movies. The Spring Festival file and the National Day file are the largest in the whole year, so the head films are getting more and more in the Spring Festival file, and the Matthew effect of box office distribution is becoming more and more obvious.
From the perspective of the number of films, the weight level of films, and the distribution of genres, has this year's Spring Festival formed a more reasonable situation?
Cinema Film Database: I think this year's Spring Festival file should be said to be the most commercial year. There is a main theme, there are different genres such as science fiction, costume, suspense, animation, comedy, etc., very comprehensive, I don't quite believe that private companies can set such a perfect film list by themselves. Let's not talk about the quality, at least it looks very commercial, and it is also very suitable for the Spring Festival atmosphere.
The sense of atmosphere is very important for the Spring Festival file, like Han Han's "Four Seas" The second half is more "mourning", not suitable for the joyful Spring Festival, so the impact of word of mouth on the box office in the second half is fatal. There is also Ning Hao's "Crazy Alien", when everyone looked forward to a comedy and found that it was not as funny as expected, but in fact, it was a movie with a deep core. There is also the Hong Kong film "Clean Government", which chose the crowded Spring Festival file and failed at the box office. The Spring Festival audience's first choice is still a film with a sense of atmosphere, word of mouth, and emotional output.
Screenshot from Lighthouse Pro
Zhu Yuqing: I think this year is the most reasonable Spring Festival file in the distribution of genres, because in previous years, especially in these two years, too much emphasis was placed on what we call "home and country sentiment movies", and this year's 7 films are very rich in genres, suitable for different viewing groups, and the weight of these films is heavy enough.
Like "The Wandering Earth 2" represents the highest level of China's film industry, it is of great significance to the entire film industry, I went to Qingdao to visit the class, and I had exchanges with director Guo Fan and Wu Jingjing, and I am personally looking forward to it. There is also "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core", I have two children, for parent-child movie-watching and family audiences, "Bear Haunted" is the first choice for the Spring Festival, and this group is also very large.
Although the industry's film viewing and pre-sales have not yet begun, many teams have recently given predictions on the box office and ranking of each film in this year's Spring Festival based on information and past experience. For example, the box office competition of Lighthouse Professional was released, and many industry media predicted the box office results of the 2023 Spring Festival movies (in order from high to low, "Chinese Table Tennis" was not officially announced at that time):
What do you think of these predictions? Does it reflect the mainstream judgment of the industry? Who could be a dark horse and who could be cannon fodder?
Zhu Yuqing: This ranking basically reflects the industry's views on these films, and I basically agree with it. The previous work of "The Wandering Earth 2", word of mouth, audience expectations, production magnitude, and main creative lineup are all top-notch, and there is no accident in the probability of winning the box office championship. The last film of "Bear Haunted" has reached the order of 1 billion box office, and it will be very stable. I think the most likely to become a dark horse is "The Deep". After watching the new trailer of "Nameless" today, I think "Nameless" also has the possibility of being an upset.
As far as the current market recovery is concerned, I think it is already very good that three films can exceed 1 billion yuan, maybe one can reach more than 2 billion yuan, and then one can reach more than 1 billion yuan, and one may be close to 1 billion yuan.
Cinema film database: The volume of "The Wandering Earth 2" will get the first place relatively steadily under normal circumstances. In recent years, the total box office of the Spring Festival file every year is about 10 billion, if the XBB strain has little impact this year, I think it can basically recover by eight or nine percent, and then in view of this year's more commercial films, the first place "The Wandering Earth 2" I estimate can reach 3 billion yuan.
Some people have seen "Manjiang Red", I heard that the overall quality is okay, there is comedy, as long as you don't go in the direction of "Three Guns", the stamina can be rushed.
The selling point of "Exchange Life" is that it is the only comedy that may become a dark horse, and I will rank it second, 1.5 billion yuan, to 17.8 billion yuan. Director Su Lun's previous "Cohabitation in Time and Space" and blockbusters such as "Avengers 3" both won 900 million yuan at the box office.
I personally have feelings for "Deep Sea", and its length is less than two hours, which will have an advantage over the 160-minute "Manjiang Red".
At present, the length of films distributed and circulated within the cinema industry, "Manjiang Hong" is another way of saying 150 minutes, "Chinese Table Tennis" is 138 minutes, "Deep Sea", "Exchange Life" and "Bear Haunted 9" are less than two hours. It is not necessarily the final duration, but is subject to subsequent official release notices
If I had to guess cannon fodder, I would choose "Chinese Table Tennis" and "Nameless". As far as China's current situation is concerned, it is difficult for sports films to be made in depth. Director Cheng Er's previous works are already well understood, the standard is very high, and this time it should also strengthen commercial considerations, but the overall entertainment is still not too strong.
The new trailer released by "Nameless" deliberately marked "super commercial film" at the end, I don't know if it is the film's response to everyone's concern that it is too much like a literary film, or a kind of self-deprecation and ridicule by the director
Pocket Movie Jun: Every year, the total box office of the Spring Festival file is basically more than 10 billion yuan, and there are only two or three films above 1 billion yuan, and this year I think more than 1 billion yuan will be "The Wandering Earth 2", "Manjiang Red" and "Deep Sea". We used to have a saying that whoever loses to "Bear Haunted" will lose, and "Bear Haunted" has become a benchmark for the profit and loss of live-action movies during the Spring Festival.
In recent years, the box office ranking and sum of the Spring Festival file
One of the risks of "The Wandering Earth 2" is that its story is a prequel to "The Wandering Earth 1", not a sequel, which may be more of a disaster film than a sci-fi film, so if you want to reproduce the box office height of "The Wandering Earth 1", I think it is a little difficult.
"Manjiang Red" I know someone went to see the trial screening, said that it was about 7.5 points, of course, it was not cut at that time, and there was still room for improvement. It's a seriously funny style, with not many scenes, going around the big yard, and a few reversals. But "Manjiang Hong" is a costume film, the box office of costume films has a ceiling, the previous high-grossing "Monster Hunt" series and "The Great Wall" are all integrated fantasy special effects elements, "Manjiang Hong" should be to challenge the box office of costume films to a new high.
"The Deep" tells the story of a little girl entering a different world, a bit of "Spirited Away" feeling. This is the biggest variable of the Spring Festival file, since it dares to release the Spring Festival file, it shows that the film side is very confident in the quality, and if the reputation is excellent, it may be directly on the level of 4 billion yuan or even 5 billion yuan. Of course, cartoons also have the highest requirements for word of mouth, such as "Coco" and "Zootopia" can be sold, and the ratings have reached more than 9 words.
"Chinese Table Tennis" is most suitable for the National Day file, but unfortunately it was changed due to some problems. "Exchange Life" I think we have to wait and see, it is now focusing on comedy selling points, but referring to producer Chen Zhixi's previous projects ("Hello, Li Huanying", "Keep You Safe"), I think it may not be just pure comedy.
For the Spring Festival file, comedy and funny film are not exactly the same thing, the comedy that sold in the past Spring Festival file is actually "funny films", such as "Hello, Li Huanying", "Flying Life", "Tang Detective 3" and "This killer is not very calm", all deliberately set up some funny bridges, and the theater viewing atmosphere is very good.
"Nameless" is most likely at the bottom, although it may be good in pre-sale. I think it is not very consistent with the tone of the Spring Festival file, and the title is more like a literary film. Although it is officially said to be a spy war film, director Cheng Er's style is a bit of a film noir, and if it is a non-linear cut, the commerciality will be worse.
Since the advantages and disadvantages have been divided in the early stage, what should I do if the movie is not favored? Is it possible that a movie will be withdrawn/run?
Pocket Movie Jun: Whether there will be a film running away, I think there will definitely be, because as soon as the pre-sale opens next week, it is time to fight for real money, and you can immediately see whether everyone's willingness to watch movies is strong or not. If the pre-sale can't be made, it will really be very anxious, and the publicity costs of the Spring Festival blockbusters are hundreds of millions, not a small amount.
What I heard is that "The Wandering Earth 2" originally wanted to be split into two parts and released separately, because the cost was too high, and the other part was put in the summer, but in the end it was still one, counting the publicity cost of 1.1 billion yuan, which means that it takes at least 3.3 billion yuan to return the cost. "Manjiang Hong" also earned more than 1.5 billion yuan. "Deep Sea" has been doing for seven years, the cash flow pressure should be quite serious, I think it takes more than 1.5 billion yuan to return the capital, so the pressure on each family is great.
Cinema Film Database: In the past five years, the Spring Festival files have basically been seven or eight films, and in terms of the annual review of experience data, one or two will become cannon fodder. At present, all movies watching this year are carrying out publicity and marketing step by step, and the less optimistic "Nameless" has also been refuting rumors and responding, so there are no signs of withdrawal of films this year.
The rumor-debunking journey promoted by "Nameless" - it is rumored on the Internet that it is all Shanghainese dialogue, and the film side issued a rumor refutation poster; It is rumored on the Internet that it is a black-and-white movie, and the film party issued a color trailer; It is rumored on the Internet that it may be a literary film, and the film party will type the big word "super commercial film"
How important is word of mouth for the Spring Festival stall?
Pocket Movie Jun: Do you remember what the opening score of "Hello, Li Huanying" was? 8.3。 Originally, "Detective Chinatown 3" was an overwhelming advantage, and the pre-sale sold nearly 1 billion yuan, and then "Hello, Li Huanying" gradually rose, and the two films contributed 10 billion yuan to the box office. "Detective Chinatown 3" mainly relies on the series brand effect, if its reputation can also be better, it can be higher. Therefore, 2021 is the real "strongest Spring Festival file".
Cinema film database: In previous years, the box office champions of the Spring Festival file finally rushed up by word of mouth, and there were often cases of counterattacks. This is also an interesting part of the Spring Festival stall, and it is the wonderful thing about this stall.
Therefore, I hope that the films that are not optimistic now will consider arranging the industry to watch the film and the audience to screen as soon as possible, if you don't show the film to everyone and give some confidence, the arrangement of the film will be at an absolute disadvantage. Fortunately, the response of the market is very rapid now, as long as the first day of the new year has a good reputation, the arrangement and box office of the second year of the first year of the first year can soon improve.
The Spring Festival file is the result of the comprehensive consideration of their own projects by various film parties, but the atmosphere of boasting within many film parties is also more serious, and the directors and producers around them are conveying confidence to them, but after really entering the market, the reputation may not be as good as they expected, which is the failure of project evaluation ability.
Screenshot from Lighthouse Pro
"The King of the Long Sky", which was originally to be on last year's National Day file, witnessed the strong organization and execution of Wang Yibo's fans. Now that "Nameless" has replaced "King of the Long Sky" as Wang Yibo's debut, starring on the big screen, the fan base has once again provided strong support for the film's announcement.
Wang Yibo's fans have expressed their position: go all out and leave no regrets
There are several popular idols and young actors starring in this year's Spring Festival, how do you think of the phenomenon of fans actively participating in the promotion of Amway and organizing pre-sales?
Pocket Movie Jun: Movies are indeed one of the most advanced in all media, a good movie for the artist's grade improvement effect is much higher than dramas and variety shows, and movies need to really spend money to buy tickets to watch, can bring better resources for artists, so the attention of fans, the pressure they feel are very normal.
But people's energy and ability are limited, and I personally feel that fans can punch one movie for idols every year, and the second one will be impulsive. "King of the Long Sky" definitely sells better than "Nameless", but since "Nameless" is now the first part, maybe fans still want to fight.
But to be honest, rushing the box office is not so simple, no matter how large the number of fans, it is possible to take out real money to support and eventually count it into the box office of 1-200 million yuan.
"Crazy Thursday" style Amway "Nameless"
Zhu Yuqing: The era of traffic stars carrying the box office and fan economy has turned over. The Spring Festival file is a long-distance run, a marathon, not how fierce it is at the beginning, the key is to see who can run to the end, relying on word of mouth to attract continuous moviegoing, we now pay more attention to the level of the film's own creation and production.
Cinema Film Database: When we were on National Day last year, we did see the professionalism of Wang Yibo's fans, and some distributors told me that they felt that the content done by fans was more powerful than the distribution, and the rhythm grasp and strategic arrangement of each node were very meticulous.
This year's Spring Festival pre-sale, fans will definitely fill in the venue, lock seats, and it will be difficult for the theater manager to adjust the schedule later. But for such a large market as the Spring Festival file, the role of fans may still be limited.
"Nameless", Wang Yibo
I can reveal some of the unspoken rules and tumultuous operations of the industry, that is, every big movie tube will have a film to participate in the investment, in order to make the pre-sale performance good, it will lock the seat inside the film tube. Other schedules will not do this kind of thing, but the Spring Festival file can't help, the competition is too fierce, and the pre-sale will greatly affect the arrangement.
The water of the film arrangement is even deeper, and the film side and the distributor have various means to compete for the film, including throwing money, intimidation, digging into the wall and so on. For example, some strong distribution companies have better films all year round, they will take the box office of each theater during the Spring Festival into account in the release actions of later films, or some theaters have been caught stealing the handle of the box office, and the keys of all subsequent films will be stopped, then the theater has to try its best to support this distributor, so the factors affecting the arrangement of films are very complex.
Fans have really worried too much about Chinese movies... I hope they don't have too much pressure, or enjoy the performance of your idols and enjoy the film art itself.
"Manjiang Hong", Yi Yang Qianxi
There are many highlights of this year's Spring Festival publicity and marketing war, such as Wang Yibo's surprise disclosure at the New Year's Eve party, "Nameless" materials have little exposure to the plot and lines, "Manjiang Hong" released multiple groups of script kills character posters with a sense of game and suspense, "Exchange Life" made some funny short videos, "Chinese Table Tennis" evokes nostalgia for sports fans, etc.
What are the most impressive points for the publicity and marketing of each company in this year's Spring Festival?
Pocket Movie Jun: The trailer released by "The Wandering Earth 2" this time is quite interesting, it is the picture ratio of the big screen. "Manjiang Hong" features many characters, and it is quite interesting to do it.
Cinema Film Database: The official of "The History of the Demise of Romance" posted a Weibo microblog, saying that the movie tickets owed could be returned here in "Nameless", which is incomprehensible... In what era is it still engaged in marketing tactics such as moral kidnapping? Besides, "The History of the Demise of Romance" is a film of the Huayi brothers, what is the logic of supplying Boena? I don't know who this number is in now, let's say it was issued by the editor or any staff member.
Zhu Yuqing: What impressed me the most was "The Wandering Earth 2", whether it is its materials, or the social platforms that choose to cooperate with it, and the film festival that publicizes and exposes it are all heads, which can attract everyone's attention and match the size of its films.
The second thing I think is better is "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core", the two major viewing groups of the Spring Festival, one is young people, and the other is the family audience, "Bear Haunted" has made the family audience have high expectations, the quality of materials, the control of the publicity rhythm, and the step-by-step strengthening of the publicity work have been done very well.
"The Wandering Earth 2", Andy Lau
Going back to the keywords at the beginning, can this year become the new "strongest Spring Festival file"? Will the "revenge movie" that has been said for three years appear after the first batch of large-scale Yangkang?
Pocket Movie Jun: In terms of total box office, if it can be the same as last year, or it can reach seven or eight billion yuan, it is already very good. We all know that the circle spreads, the people inside are very hi, and then a little bit affects the people outside. Recently, many ordinary netizens and audiences have participated in the discussion of the Spring Festival file, but you said that our parents and children will not go to the cinema this year, which is really a question mark.
I've invested in two films this year, one of which just came out and didn't hit the box office as expected. I think I need to pay attention to the Spring Festival pre-sale, and I heard that it will open around next Thursday.
But don't be too pessimistic, in the top 20 global box office markets, Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan are among them, Chinese love to watch movies, watching movies is very in line with the cultural value of Chinese.
Cinema Film Database: Last year's Spring Festival's high-priced movie tickets discouraged many audiences from entering the cinema, but this year I don't think theaters will learn any lessons, because they still have to solve financial problems. It can be seen from "Avatar: The Way of Water" that the special effects hall sells well and the ticket price is high, but the attendance rate of third- and fourth-tier cities and ordinary halls is still quite difficult.
This matter does not need to be the competent authority, the market will adjust spontaneously, just hope to adjust faster, don't come down after the Spring Festival holiday is over.
Zhu Yuqing: I don't think it can be called the "strongest", 2020 is the suppression of movie viewing, so there is retaliatory viewing, this year may not reach the level of 2021.
After all, this market has been tormented by the epidemic for three years, the audience is indeed tight, the economic base determines the superstructure, and expectations cannot be raised too high. Many viewers are still more concerned about the risk of the epidemic.
The key word of movies in 2023, I think is "recovery", and 2023 must be a recovery year for Chinese films. We are looking forward to a good opportunity for development in the film industry after three years of suffering, and it just so happens that the new leadership team of the film bureau has recently taken office, hoping that the Chinese film industry can return to the normal track as soon as possible.