Observe | obstruct Finland and Sweden from "entering the treaty", and the Turkish sword dance "intended to be Pei Gong"?

The Paper's reporter Yu Xiaoxuan

When Finland and Sweden, two Nordic countries, joined forces to make the historic decision to join NATO, the leaders of most member states opened their arms to the two applicant countries. But "accession" requires unanimous approval from all existing members, and Turkey, which was considered one of the most strategically valuable members of the military alliance, is not happy.

President Of Turkey Erdogan

After Finland and Sweden said they wanted to apply for "accession", Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly made clear opposition and has blocked preliminary discussions within the union about speeding up the "accession" of the two countries. Turkey said the reason for the opposition was that Sweden and Finland allowed organizations such as the Gulen Movement and the PKK, which Turkey designated as terrorist organizations, to carry out activities against Turkey in their territories, and the Turkish side also accused Sweden of providing weapons and equipment to the PKK.

On May 24, Finnish Foreign Minister Javisto said that Finland and Sweden would send delegations to Ankara on the 25th to try to negotiate a solution to Turkey's opposition to its "accession to the treaty". "We know that Turkey has some security concerns about terrorism, and we think these problems can be solved." In a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Harveystow said that "there may also be issues that are not directly linked to Finland and Sweden, but more to other NATO members." ”

Turkey is known as NATO's "thorn in the head", but all kinds of obstruction in Finland and Sweden's "accession" still surprised its allies. People don't know what Erdogan is calculating: to limit political opponents abroad, or to attract political attention in the United States, or to win the favor of "good friend" Russian President Vladimir Putin?

Rake up the past

"These two countries, especially Sweden, are completely hotbeds of terrorism. That is why we are determined to continue this policy by saying 'no' to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Erdogan said on May 19. He has repeatedly stressed that Turkey will not "positively view" the applications of Sweden and Finland for "accession" unless sweden and Finland's "terrorism" related issues are resolved.

Erdogan's terms "terrorism" refers to the PKK, which has been at war with the Turkish government since the 1980s. The group is on the list of terrorist organizations by Turkey, as well as by the United States, Canada, Australia and the European Union. In fact, Sweden was one of the first countries to designate the PKK as a terrorist organization in 1984. But Turkey has long blamed the Nordic countries, particularly Sweden, which has a large number of Turkish immigrants, for harboring Kurdish militants and supporters of the Gulen movement.

However, both the Finnish and Swedish political leadership was initially skeptical of Erdogan's seriousness. Finnish President Niinistö said he had spoken to Erdogan a month ago, but the latter had not expressed any concerns. Turkey's permanent representative to NATO, Bassat Özturk, has also never sent early warning signals to allies.

Needless to say, Turkey's intervention will bring Finland and Sweden to a continued impasse in their "accession to the treaty.". The leaders and diplomats of the two Nordic countries had to start treating the NATO "thorn-headed soldier" with caution. "The Turks see all Kurds as terrorists." Turkish media quoted Swedish Foreign Minister Lind as saying that she had to respond by saying she had "never met the PKK and will not do so".

Linde may have been cautiously optimistic at first, believing that any misunderstanding could be dispelled, but her assurances clearly did not meet Erdogan's requirements. "We would like to see concrete steps on Turkey's security, not an open-ended diplomatic statement." Erdogan said on May 23 that "NATO's expansion policy does not prioritize fundamental security issues, which is not good for Turkey or for NATO itself." ”

On May 16, Turkey's Ministry of Justice listed 33 Turkish "terrorists" who had tried to extradite from Finland and Sweden, accused of being members of the PKK or supporters of the Gülen movement. But some Swedish and Finnish diplomats said the list was last submitted in 2017 and had not been the subject of Turkey's lobbying in recent years until the two countries raised their will to join NATO this time.

"Raising" in Syria

In addition to cracking down on exileD members and supporters of the Gülen Movement, Turkey has demanded that Sweden and Finland cut off support for the Kurdish armed People's Protection Units (YPG) in northeastern Syria, while also strongly urging Sweden to lift the arms embargo imposed on turkey after its cross-border strike on YPG in 2019.

NATO allies have repeatedly demanded a calm response from Turkey, while Erdogan has begun to "increase the weight". He announced on May 23 that Turkey would soon launch a new round of military operations against YPG militants in northern Syria, which would push the Turkish armed forces in Syrian-controlled areas to a depth of 30 kilometers along the border between the two countries. Erdogan said that the Turkish military will make further action decisions at the meeting on the 26th.

Turkey launched a new round of military operations against Kurdish forces in Iraq in April, taking advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But the YPG, still a nominal ally of the United States and supported by the West, is taking a transboundary strike against Syria at this time, with a focus on whether the United States will acquiesce.

On May 24, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a military and political coalition mainly formed by the YPG, accused Turkey of trying to destabilize the region by threatening military action. "If there is any attack, of course we will resist and fight back." Shivan Ibrahim, spokesman for the SDF-controlled autonomous government in northeastern Syria, said, "The international community now faces an important test: can they effectively control Turkey? ”

Faced with such torture, Turkey's NATO allies may not know how to respond. As Erdogan himself put it, "this planned military operation will reveal which countries respect Turkey's security concerns and which countries do not respect Turkey's security concerns" – an issue that also goes to the heart of the current intra-NATO dispute.

"Erdogan's Swiss Army Knife"

NATO's "accession" rules require that new countries must have the support of all existing members to join, which also provides an opportunity for any one member to ask for a price. Previously, due to the dispute over the name of the country, Greece "hung out" Macedonia's application for "admission" for ten years, until 2019 Macedonia officially changed its name to North Macedonia. Now, Greece's "old adversary" to NATO, Turkey, has seized the opportunity to ask for a price in one of Europe's biggest security crises since the end of the Cold War.

In addition to the consistent allegations of "terrorism", Turkey has no more reasons to oppose sweden and Finland's "accession", but it does have reasons to oppose the "head of the family" of the alliance. U.S. President Joe Biden, who has returned to "values diplomacy," has left Erdogan feeling snubbed. At Biden's "Democracy Summit" last December, Erdogan's name did not even appear on the invitation list of more than 100 leaders.

As Turkey insisted on buying Russia's S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, the United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 stealth fighter's manufacturing program and imposed sanctions on Turkey's defense industry. Just as Finland and Sweden announced their "accession" applications last week, a Turkish delegation was visiting Washington to ask the U.S. Congress to approve a $400 million purchase agreement to upgrade Turkey's F-16 fighter jets. But the trouble is that Greece is lobbying to block the deal.

Another explanation is that Erdogan is doing his "friend" Putin a favor – and at the same time helping himself. Although Turkey has openly opposed Russia's military action against Ukraine and ignored Russia's accusations of selling drones to Ukraine, under Erdogan's "balancing act", Turkey has refused to impose sanctions on Russia in line with the West, and has also opened its arms to the fleeing Russian oligarchs. Recently, the Turkish media once again reported that Putin was about to visit Ankara, and was immediately "punched in the face" by the Russian Foreign Ministry and "not arranged". But this may be another signal that the "thorn head" has released to the alliance: Turkey has cards to play.

Such a "asking price game" frustrates both applicants and most NATO members. Sweden and Finland had hoped to conclude negotiations with NATO as soon as possible and signed an "accession" agreement ahead of the NATO summit in Madrid on June 29-30. In the face of Turkey's obstruction, that hope has become slim.

"It's like Erdogan's Swiss Army knife — a versatile tool that can get concessions from the Swedes, or stir up nationalist sentiments, or come face-to-face with Biden." Eric Edelman, a former Pentagon official and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Finland, said, "I believe he will at least drag this issue to the Madrid summit, which will be in the spotlight if there is no other reason." ”

At this moment, Sweden and Finland are feeling anxious, as if their future fate is in the hands of Erdogan alone. At present, Russia's response to the "accession" of the two countries to the treaty is still "moderate". But until they are formalized, they will not be protected by NATO Clause V, which stipulates that an attack on one ally will be considered an attack on all allies – and this is precisely the dilemma faced by Ukraine, which has been in conflict for three months.

Responsible editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo editor: Zhang Tongze

Proofreader: Ding Xiao