Foreword: There are reports that Tesla may build a second-phase factory in Shanghai, and some villagers hope that I will sort out Tesla's industrial chain and arrange!
This table of contents
1. Ins and outs
2. Understand integrated die casting
3. Industrial chain
4. Subdivision track
5. Industry status
6. Industry prospects
7. Market space
8. Summary and related listed companies
9. Exclusive core tips
First, the context
Financial Associated Press, May 4, according to a number of sources cross-verification, Tesla has clearly planned to build a new factory near the current Lingang Gigafactory in the Shanghai factory to expand production capacity. The new plant is expected to produce Model 3 and Model Y models with an annual production capacity of 450,000 units. The expansion of the new plant will help Tesla increase the total production capacity of the Shanghai plant to 1 million vehicles per year.
Tesla Shanghai re-construction factory, for the current domestic Tesla industry chain is bound to be good, but in fact, from 2016 onwards, Tesla factory construction news appeared, Tesla industry chain hype has been several rounds, so before there is no new story, only the case of quantitative change, there will not be too much splash.
But the new technology brought by Tesla is not the same, so to say that this round of expansion or new construction, the final market is most concerned about the promotion and application of new technology, for now, 4680 large cylindrical batteries and integrated die casting should be two major trends, this article focuses on the opportunity of integrated die casting.
Second, understand the integration of die casting
Integrated die casting is the manufacture of large aluminum parts through large tonnage die casting machine, mainly refers to the integrated processing of automotive body structural parts, the original design of a number of individual, scattered small parts through the redesign of highly integrated, and then use the die casting machine for one-time molding die casting into complete large parts (omit welding and assembly process). In addition, the multi-in-one shell such as the new energy vehicle three-electric system can also introduce integrated die-casting technology to achieve integrated manufacturing At present, large-scale integrated die-casting is mainly suitable for passenger car body (including rear floor, front floor and front cabin) and body-in-white.
Third, the industrial chain
The upstream of the integrated die-casting industry chain mainly includes some materials and related equipment, the materials are mainly heat-free treatment materials, and the equipment is mainly die-casting machines and molds;
The middle reaches of the industrial chain are mainly Tier1 manufacturers and layout of integrated die-casting business of some OEMs, Tesla took the lead in adopting integrated technology, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal followed tesla layout integration die casting, traditional OEMs such as Geely, Volkswagen, etc. also have relevant entry plans, in addition to parts manufacturers are also stepping up layout, according to Lijin Group disclosed, many enterprises in the auto parts supply chain have purchased or plan to purchase large-scale die casting equipment, layout integrated die casting field;
The downstream of the industrial chain is the major car companies.
Fourth, subdivide the track
1. Die casting machine
1) The development status of the mainland die casting industry is now better, but there is still a certain gap between the overall technical level of the mainland die casting enterprises and foreign enterprises
In terms of technology research and development, most of the large die-casting enterprises in the mainland have established die-casting engineering technology research and development centers, equipped with relevant software and hardware, testing instruments, and developed new technologies, new processes, and new products, but most of the small and medium-sized die-casting enterprises have less R&D investment and weak ability to develop new products.
2) Three factors lead to the low production capacity of large die casting machines currently used for integrated die casting
On the one hand, the integrated die-casting parts are larger, and there are also hard requirements for the die-casting machine's clamping, injection system, template size, and control capability, among which the clamping force is the biggest difficulty, and the die-casting machine clamping mechanism needs to provide new design solutions;
On the other hand, in the past, there was no demand for the manufacture of super-large die-casting machines in the market (basically < 4,000 tons), and there was no historical accumulation of research and development experience;
In addition, the price of large die casting machine rises with the increase of clamping force, and the unit price of the bare machine of the super large die casting machine with a clamping force higher than 5000 tons is more than 25 million, so the large die casting machine has a high capital threshold.
At present, enterprises with more than 6,000 tons of large die casting machine manufacturing capacity are basically only Lijin Technology, Buller, etc., and Lijin Technology models, tonnage, and order volume occupy the leading position in the industry; affected by production capacity and research and development progress, large die casting machines are less delivered, and the die casting machine market is undersupplied, and it is difficult for technology to meet the demand for integrated processing of body-in-white at this stage.
2. Mold
Since the integrated die casting mold is larger, the pouring system, overflow system, exhaust system, cooling system, pressure regulation system, mold release ejection mechanism and other systems are different from traditional molds, and the integrated die casting mold design relies on a lot of experience and calculation experiments. At present, a small number of enterprises such as Wencan have the ability to develop molds, and most Tier1 enterprise molds need to be purchased.
1) Die casting molds account for nearly 10% of the mold industry
From the perspective of output, the overall increase in the output of molds in mainland China in the past 10 years corresponds to the slowdown in the scale of industry revenue, indicating that the overall competition in the mold industry has become increasingly fierce in the past five years. The mold is mainly divided into plastic mold, stamping die and die casting mold. According to the latest 2012 yearbook data of the mold industry association, plastic molds account for the highest proportion of 45% from the proportion of revenue, stamping molds account for 37%, and die-casting molds account for only 8.5%.
2) The competition in the die casting mold industry is relatively scattered
According to the research information of the die casting mold industry, the enterprise with the highest income in the die casting mold industry in the mainland is Guangzhou Cavity, and the company's revenue in 2019 is only about 200 million. Die-casting molds are basically non-standard products, it is difficult to form a scale effect, and downstream customers are more dispersed, which is the main factor in the large market size but scattered competitive pattern of the die-casting industry.
3. Materials
Integrated die casting in the material is mainly heat-free materials, for traditional aluminum alloys, heat treatment is an essential means to ensure the mechanical properties of die-cast parts, due to the larger integrated die-casting parts, so the later heat treatment will produce a large degree of deformation, so the need to use heat-free aluminum alloy materials.
As of 2021, domestic and foreign enterprises including Germany Rheinland, Tesla, Weilai Automobile, Lizhong Group, etc. have developed their own heat-free aluminum alloy materials, with different performance characteristics, but the currently developed heat-free aluminum alloy performance can only barely meet the requirements of use, to Tesla's self-developed materials as an example, the average yield strength of 130MPa, there is still a lot of research and development space in performance.
Fifth, the current situation of the industry
1. The long-term emphasis on the low turnover attribute of funds has led to More Dominant Tier1
Integrated die casting is a heavy capital field, the main engine factory will not do in-depth, parts suppliers mature technology, supply capacity improvement, external mining is the mainstream trend, for example, from the calculation of the integrated die casting input-output ratio and gross profit margin, the technical immature stage yield is low, if the yield is only 60%, the input-output ratio is higher than 1:1.4, the gross profit margin is only 12%, and the willingness of parts manufacturers to invest is not strong. Short-term OEMs, especially tesla and Xiaopeng and other new forces out of supply pressure and Tier1 capabilities are not generally mature period personally involved, but in the long run, integrated die casting funds are heavier, and in the later stage, after sufficient production capacity and gradual maturity of the process will be dominated by Tier1.
2. The concentration of the domestic die casting industry is low, and most enterprises are small in scale
Due to the particularity of the automotive industry, there are qualification and customer certification thresholds, technical thresholds, and entry thresholds such as capital and scale in the auto parts precision die casting industry, and new entrants will face greater obstacles. It is expected that in a short period of time, the large-scale parts die casting companies that have entered the supporting systems of major vehicle manufacturers in China will still occupy the dominant position in the industry.
3. There are layers of thresholds in the die casting industry
1) Qualification and customer certification threshold
The automobile industry is a specialized, high degree of refinement of the industry, in order to meet the strict requirements of the car in terms of safety, comfort and other aspects, parts companies need to pass a series of strict audit and certification system before entering the vehicle supporting system.
2) Technical threshold
With the development of the automobile industry, the performance, quality and reliability requirements of auto parts of the whole vehicle enterprises have gradually improved, and the technical barriers of the industry have shown a continuous improvement trend. Specific to the precision die casting industry of auto parts, suppliers need long-term technical accumulation in product structure and manufacturing scheme design, mold design and development and manufacturing, material development and preparation, die casting process technology and other links to meet the quality requirements of vehicle enterprises and first-class parts suppliers for products.
3) Funding and scale thresholds
Automotive precision die casting is a typical capital-intensive industry, die casting equipment, melting equipment, mold production equipment, testing equipment and other necessary production and manufacturing equipment require high purchase costs. In the increasingly fierce trend of industry competition, in order to ensure that the technical indicators such as precision, strength and processability of products reach the advanced level, domestic enterprises often need to purchase more high-end processing and testing equipment, which puts forward higher requirements for the financial strength of enterprises.
Sixth, industry prospects
1. The demand for lightweighting and efficiency improvement and cost reduction promotes integrated die casting
Integrated die casting has the advantages of weight reduction, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, weight reduction, Tesla plans to replace the original 370 parts of the car body assembly with 2-3 large die castings, the weight will be reduced by 30%; cost reduction, Tesla after the floor replacement cost dropped at about 20%; efficiency improvement, the use of integrated die casting after the floor assembly model Y, manufacturing time from the traditional process of 1-2 hours reduced to 3-5 minutes, can achieve direct supply in the factory.
Driven by the requirements of lightweight and efficiency reduction, the body structural parts are developing in the direction of thin-walled, high-performance and large-scale, the aluminum processing technology replaces the stamping + welding of steel sheet metal parts, and the aluminum die-casting parts evolve from small parts to integrated large parts, promoting the accelerated development of integrated die-casting.
2. The one-piece die casting reform is expected to drive the accelerated growth of die casting equipment in the next decade
In the past decade, the mainland die casting machine market as a whole has shown a growth trend, but the total scale is less than 3 billion, and the downstream is dominated by the automotive industry, of which the industry leader Lijin Technology occupies about 57% of the share. In the past three years, the scale of the mainland die casting mold market is about 24 billion to 26 billion, and the industry pattern is extremely fragmented. It is expected that the cycle of integrated die-casting body penetration to increase to 90% takes 10 to 15 years, assuming that in 2030, the penetration rate of integrated die-casting in new energy vehicles is 70% and 20% in the field of fuel vehicles, and it is expected that in 2030, the global body + door structural parts need to add a total investment of about 173.5 billion die-casting machines and systems, the total investment of die-casting molds is 36.3 billion yuan, and the industry CAGR60% in the next 10 years. At the same time, the large-scale die casting machine will bring new demand in many fields, the scope of application is expanded, and the integrated die casting process has the potential to extend to multiple fields.
Seventh, market space
1. Short-term and medium-term market
It is estimated that by 2025, the market space of integrated die-casting body structural parts is expected to reach 37.67 billion yuan, the market space of die-casting machines is expected to reach 5 billion yuan, the market space of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 16.13 billion yuan, and the mold market space is expected to reach 1.09 billion yuan. Each link of the industrial chain has doubled or more growth rates, of which integrated die-cast body structural parts have the fastest growth rate.
2. Forward market
The integrated die-casting body structure has the largest market space, and the global/continental market space is expected to reach 610/183 billion yuan respectively; The global/continental market space of large-scale die casting machine is expected to reach 21.83/6.55 billion yuan respectively; the global/continental market space of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is expected to reach 2500/75 billion yuan; and the global/Chinese market space of molds is expected to reach 182.5/5.48 billion yuan.
8. Summary and related listed companies
Summary: Under the trend of integrated die-casting body, die-casting machines and die-casting molds have become the core car-making equipment, especially the die-casting machine track will have huge room for development. In addition, the increase in the penetration rate of lightweight components will provide large-scale incremental demand for die casting machines.
Relevant listed companies
postscript
This article is also the 244th article of my "New Energy Vehicle Special Topic Series", and the current progress is as follows:
The above is the direction and idea of my own research, that is, to share with you.
I do not recommend any individual stocks, do not accept members, no QQ group, no WeChat group, and never have an interest relationship with anyone, all information is only for their own learning and use, not as a basis for trading, buyers are at their own risk, sellers are also responsible.
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