After more than half a month of competition, the playoffs have entered the semifinals of the division, with a total of 8 teams standing out.
The Eastern side is: Heat vs 76ers, Green Army vs Bucks, Western side: Suns vs Lone Rangers, Grizzlies vs Warriors.
After the semifinals of the four groups of G1 competition, the Heat, Bucks, Warriors and Suns won, all of which temporarily led 1-0 with a large score.
To this end, the US media "fivethirtyeight" also updated the probability of winning the championship of each team at the first time, of which 3 teams were less than 10%, and the Warriors only ranked fourth, and the top of the list was as high as 33%.
3 teams less than 10%: Lone Rangers (2%), Grizzlies (4%) and 76ers (5%)
It's no surprise that three teams appear in the same slot, and since the playoffs, all three teams have not been popular for the championship, and the probability has never exceeded 10%.
Among them, after the Lone Ranger lost to the Suns in G1 without suspense, although the probability of the team competing for the championship was still 2%, the probability of advancing to the second round fell to 14%, further reducing by 7 percentage points.
The reason is also very simple, in G1 against the Middle East Cic bombed 45 points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists data, but the team still lost the game, the suspense of the series has been very small.
The Grizzlies are slightly better, but it is still a round of suspenseful competition, so the team not only has the second-to-last probability of winning the championship, but also has only a 29% chance of advancing to the next round.
Then there was the G1 76ers, who also lost, and in Embiid's absence, the 76ers lost to the Heat on the road, trailing 1-0.
Although the team lost the game, the opponent Heat did not show absolute dominance, but the 76ers exposed a lot of shortcomings.
Projection, on-the-spot strain and Harden's aggressiveness are all below average, and with Embiid's uncertainty, it remains to be seen that the series remains to be seen.
Therefore, although the probability of the 76ers winning the championship is only 5%, the probability of promotion is still 33%.
Five teams have a probability of at least 10 percent: Heat (10 percent), Warriors (12 percent), Bucks (16 percent), Green Army (19 percent), and Suns (33 percent).
In the absence of Lowry in G1, the Heat still won the game, which gave the team's winning probability to exceed 10% for the first time.
And the probability of qualifying for the second round has increased by 12 percentage points to 67%, after all, the team is currently leading 1-0.
However, there is a shortcoming in the heat's core player ceiling, resulting in the team having no advantage over the Green Army and Bucks, and the probability of advancing to the Finals is only 26%.
Unexpectedly, the warriors' probability of advancing to the Finals is also 26%, the same as the Heat in the East, resulting in the team's overall championship probability of only 12%, ranking only fourth on the list.
Whether it is from the team experience, team level, lineup depth, or coaching ability of the coaching staff, the Warriors should be the best championship team at present, but in the probability rankings so far in the playoffs, the Warriors have been underestimated.
In contrast, the Suns were very optimistic, even in the first round of the pelicans into a fight, the team was also very optimistic, the second round after the G1 defeat of the Lone Ranger, the probability of winning the championship soared to 33%.
The two more promising teams in the East are the Bucks and the Green Army, and the Bucks' probability of advancing to the next round after the G1 defeat of the Green Army has increased to 54%, but the probability of advancing to the Finals is still 31%.
The Green Army has a 46% chance of advancing to the next round and a 32% chance of advancing to the Finals, which puts the Green Army 3 points ahead of the Bucks in terms of the probability of winning the championship.
It is not difficult to see from the overall probability evaluation that this set of evaluation systems is based on record, data and lineup balance, and does not consider too much the impact of top stars on the game, and the playoffs are precisely the duels between superstars, especially between top teams, often see which team has a better superstar appearance.