Before the second round of the series began, Tencent's 30 experts made predictions; the predictions of the other three groups of duels were almost all one-sided bullish on the Sun, Warriors, Heat, only the Celtics and Bucks, and the green army and the bucks were all 15 people. When the experts of the US authoritative ESPN predicted the second round of the series, everyone was optimistic about the Heat, the Suns, and the Warriors to advance; but 14 were optimistic about the Celtics, 6 were optimistic about the Bucks; and among these 20 experts, 17 predicted that the score was 7 games...
From the expert predictions of Tencent and ESPN, it is not difficult to see that in the semifinals of the 4 groups of divisions, the Celtics and Bucks are the most suspenseful. But the reason the Celtics are the more favored side is because Middleton is likely to miss the entire series. However, in a way, Middleton's absence and the Green Army's too smooth first round to win the Nets have created a lot of illusions for all parties.
Since Middleton is the Bucks' second-best player outside of the alphabet, the team's best three-pointer shooter, and the only two-meter-plus forward in the 8-9 player rotation of the Bucks' playoffs; the absence of Middleton means that the Bucks will greatly reduce the time spent playing small lineups, and their ability to singles on the front line will be greatly affected...
But many people overlook the point that the small lineup and the forward singles, which the Celtics are not afraid of; so what are the Celtics afraid of? What I'm afraid of is that you're taller than me, you're harder than me... And these conditions, the bucks are satisfied.
In the first round of playing the Nets, the Celtics' defense was well limited to Durant and Irving's singles; but Curry Jr. opened, Bruce. Brown and Dragic opened, and in fact the Nets' offense in the first round didn't have much of a problem, they lost on the defensive end. Nash's starting 3 guards, rotation time 4 guards were on the field at the same time, the big one changed defenses to go out to chase the opponent's outside line, and the operation of Curry Jr., Irving, Dragic and other people to protect the frame, resulting in the Nets' penalty area becoming the Green Army's cash machine.
But playing bucks is completely different, before the Celtics finally replaced the main shot early to admit defeat, among the players on both sides, only three players who registered more than 6 feet 10 in height were Big Lo, Alphabet, and Portis; and once the Bucks had a problem with one of the three highs, they also had an Ibaka on the bench. Without Middleton, Budenholzer started directly on the top 3 highs, and the rotation time will basically guarantee two high points on the court... The Bucks' defensive strategy has returned to previous seasons since Big Luo returned, and they often adopted the inside squat pit to protect the basket, give fewer free throws, and give the opponent some three-pointers.
The Celtics shot 50 times outside the three-point line in this game, shooting 16, whether it is production or shooting rate, there is no problem; but the past 12 teams (including this game) who have shot at least 50 three-pointers in a single game in the playoffs have a record of 2 wins and 10 losses in this game, which shows that in the high-intensity playoffs, betting on three-pointers is very unreliable. Moreover, in the regular season, the Celtics' three-point shooting rate is only 35.6%, ranking in the middle of the league (the first round of shooting is good, that is, the Nets are not defensive, there is no reference value), and their outside projection ability simply cannot let the Bucks change their defensive strategy!
The Bucks' outside lines Matthews, Holliday, Connaughton, and Allen are all relatively stable, short and strong in the next set; although the Celtics' double probe flowers have a height advantage in the face of the Bucks' outside line, they are not as hard as the Bucks' outside line, and the double probe flower in addition to height, facing the Bucks' outside line itself can not take advantage. Even if it was hard to push to the basket, it was the letters in front of them, it was Big Lo, Tatum could make a covered highlight in this game, Brown could make a misstep highlight; the Celtics' two-pointers were only 10 of 34 (including fast attack), and they were pinched by the Bucks with height.
On the defensive end, in fact, the Celtics' restrictions on the alphabet are good enough; the Celtics' wheel war is crazy and has limited the alphabet's shooting percentage to 9 out of 25. However, the Bucks team's team building idea is the Big Three + 3D; even without Middleton, the players on the top have the ability to punish opponents with empty three-pointers. And now the alphabet, the ability to handle the ball is not too afraid of being pinched; the alphabet in this game used 12 assists to dismantle the Green Army's defense.
Both team coaches are old acquaintances of the Spurs, but Udoka is still too immature in front of championship coach Budenholzer; when the defensive strategies of both sides are to stick to the box and gamble on the offensive feel of the outside, this game strategy is more accustomed to the Bucks. They are more accurate than the Celtics, and even if everyone is playing iron, the Bucks have an absolute advantage in height and rebounding under the basket. Moreover, no matter how the Celtics encircle the forbidden area, the strong killing of the alphabet cannot be completely restricted; even if it cannot be thrown, it can be grabbed and deducted...
In fact, the Bucks' opponents, no matter what offensive style they like; most teams face the Bucks, it is easy to be dragged into the mode of competition. If you want to dismantle the Bucks' defensive system, you have to have 19 years of Leonard, 20 years of Butler, last year Durant, Booker this kind of defiant defensive ability; to avoid falling into the Bucks like the rhythm, not only to have a strong anti-alphabet armor, but also to have a strong ability to control the court. The Celtics have a strong front line and can organize anti-alphabet armor. But the other necessary conditions, the Celts simply do not have. When the alignment advantage is entirely on the Bucks' side, they can minimize the impact of Middleton's absence... And from the remarks of the Celtic players after the game, it is not difficult to see that at least this game, the Bucks have subdued them.
After the dissolution of the Old Big Three, the Celtics' closest chance to the Finals is 18 years. But that year, the Predatory Green Army, led by the double probing flower, faced the Knight led by James' single core, and encountered the best personal heroism in history. Nowadays, the double probe flower has gradually matured, but there is a first person in the east who is active in the alliance. Time has passed, compared to the original battle against James, the double probe flower has a stronger single point blasting ability; but two singles players with serious lack of ability to dominate the ball, if there is no good point guard as a support, are doomed to escape the fate of being dominated by the first person.